Global Economy Briefing: January 13, 2026

Key Points

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• U.S. inflation stayed calm, but paychecks lost ground after inflation and oil stocks jumped.

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• Europe’s borrowing costs rose again, a sign markets still demand discipline.

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• China’s trade was strong, keeping Asia as the stabilizer for global growth and prices.

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United States

\nThe main message was “good inflation, softer wallets.” CPI stayed at 2.7% y/y and 0.3% m/m. Core CPI was 2.6% y/y and 0.2% m/m. That is a friendly setup for rates.
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\nThe problem is the household side. Real earnings fell 0.3% m/m. Retail momentum also cooled (Redbook 5.7% y/y; IBD/TIPP 47.2).
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\nHiring looked slow but steady (ADP 11.75k; NFIB 99.5). Housing was stable, not booming: October new home sales were 737k (−0.1% m/m) after 738k in September (+3.8%).
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\nThe biggest late surprise was oil. API showed a 5.27M-barrel crude build. That reduces near-term inflation risk, but it can also signal softer demand.
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\nThe 30-year auction cleared at 4.825% and the December budget deficit was $145.0B. Net: inflation is contained, but consumer strength is not accelerating.
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Europe and UK

\nThe story was “rates are still the boss.” Germany’s 5-year Bobl yield rose to 2.470%. Spain’s Letras also rose (12-month 2.032%; 6-month 1.981%).
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\nItaly’s 3-year eased to 2.48%, a small relief. France’s budget balance worsened to −€155.4B.
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\nMarkets are treating fiscal credibility as a daily test. That is why funding costs matter so much for Europe’s growth outlook.
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Asia-Pacific

\nChina ended the day strong: exports rose 6.6% y/y, imports 5.7% y/y, and the trade surplus was $114.1B.
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\nThat supports exporters from Korea to Germany and lowers recession risk abroad. Korea’s import-price inflation cooled to 0.3% y/y and export prices to 5.5% y/y, easing global price pressure.
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\nJapan’s sentiment stayed weak (Economy Watchers 48.6; Tankan 7) and yields stayed higher (5-year JGB 1.639%). Australia’s approvals stayed strong (+15.2% m/m; +20.2% y/y).
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\nNet: Asia is still doing two jobs at once—supporting demand while exporting disinflation.
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Latin America and others

\nBrazil’s services slipped −0.1% m/m but rose 2.5% y/y. Canada’s building permits fell 13.1% m/m after a prior surge. New Zealand consents rose 2.8% m/m and its commodity index fell 2.1% m/m.
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What it means

\nThis was a “stable inflation, uneven growth” day. The U.S. looks fine on prices but softer on real income.
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\nEurope is constrained by higher funding costs. Asia, led by China’s trade, is carrying the global growth floor while keeping price pressure down.

This is part of The Rio Times’ daily global economic intelligence for the Latin American financial community.

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