Today’s global economy briefing for February 6, 2026 covers the Dow’s first close above 50,000, a sharp miss in German industrial production, and the delayed US jobs report. Meanwhile, the RBI held rates steady and Canada’s labour market delivered a split verdict. Here’s what moved markets on Friday.
The Big Three
Wall Street staged a furious rebound — the Dow vaulted above 50,000 for the first time (+2.5%), the S&P 500 reclaimed positive YTD territory (+2.0%), and Bitcoin clawed back 10% after crashing below $61,000 overnight.
German industrial production cratered −1.9% MoM in December — six times worse than the −0.3% consensus — led by an −8.9% collapse in auto output, dousing recovery hopes.
The US jobs report was delayed to February 11 after a four-day government shutdown. UMich sentiment surprised higher (57.3 vs 55.0 expected) but masked a widening gap between stock-rich and stock-poor households.
Dashboard: Key Prints vs Expectations
| Indicator | Actual | Expected | Prior | Verdict |
| Industrial Production MoM (Dec) | −1.9% | −0.3% | +0.2% | BIG MISS |
| Trade Balance (Dec) | €17.1B | €14.1B | €13.1B | BEAT |
| Halifax House Price MoM (Jan) | +0.7% | +0.1% | −0.5% | BEAT |
| Employment Change (Jan) | −24.8K | +7.0K | +8.2K | MISS |
| Unemployment Rate (Jan) | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | BEAT |
| UMich Sentiment (Feb prelim) | 57.3 | 55.0 | 56.4 | BEAT |
| Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) | — | +60K | +50K | DELAYED → FEB 11 |
| RBI Rate Decision | 5.25% | 5.25% | 5.25% | HOLD |
| Household Spending YoY (Dec) | −2.6% | −0.5% | +2.9% | BIG MISS |
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+0.29%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7,751 | +0.29% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NDX | 29,799 | +0.93% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DJI | 53,810 | +0.03% | — | — | — | — | — |
| RUT | 3,041 | +0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| US10Y | 4.6760 | -0.17% | — | — | — | — | — |
| VIX | 14.60 | -4.45% | — | — | — | — | — |
| DAX | 26,331 | -0.23% | — | — | — | — | — |
| FTSE | 10,833 | -0.10% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CAC | 8,675 | -0.46% | — | — | — | — | — |
| STOXX | 659.48 | -0.16% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIKKEI | 67,524 | +0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| HSI | 25,440 | -0.83% | — | — | — | — | — |
| KOSPI | 6,579 | +3.68% | — | — | — | — | — |
| CSI300 | 4,691 | +0.58% | — | — | — | — | — |
| NIFTY | 24,436 | -0.15% | — | — | — | — | — |
| TSX | 36,619 | +0.39% | — | — | — | — | — |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
United States
Data blackout lifts; Dow 50K milestone
The marquee release — January nonfarm payrolls — never arrived. A four-day partial government shutdown forced the BLS to push it to February 11, with January CPI delayed to February 13. As a result, this is the second straight year a shutdown has scrambled the data calendar. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of global affairs and Latin American financial news.
However, proxy readings paint a soft picture. ADP private payrolls showed just 22,000 jobs added — barely half the 45,000 consensus. In addition, JOLTS openings tumbled to 6.54 million, a five-year low. Challenger reported the highest January job cuts since 2009.
Meanwhile, UMich preliminary sentiment beat at 57.3 versus 55.0 expected — a six-month high. Beneath the headline, sentiment surged among equity holders while stagnating for households without stock exposure. Year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 3.5% from 4.0%.
Consequently, markets seized on the positive headline. The Dow surged 1,207 points to close at 50,116 — its first print above 50,000. The S&P 500 jumped 2.0% to 6,932. Bitcoin rebounded 10% from its $61,000 overnight low to settle near $71,000, though it remains down 16% on the week.
Key Facts
— Constructive surface, fragile underneath. The sentiment beat and Friday’s equity rip provide breathing room, but JOLTS, ADP, and Challenger all point to labor-market deterioration. The real test: NFP (Feb 11) and CPI (Feb 13). Reports of Trump pushing 15–20% minimum tariffs on all EU goods inject fresh uncertainty.
Europe
German industry stumbles; ECB and BoE digested
German industrial production printed −1.9% MoM — six times worse than the −0.3% consensus. The damage concentrated in autos (−8.9%), mechanical engineering (−6.8%), and machinery maintenance (−17.6%). Capital Economics called it “cold water on recovery hopes.”
On the other hand, the trade data offered partial consolation. Germany’s December surplus blew out to €17.1 billion, well above the €14.1 billion expected. Exports surged 4.0% MoM, with China overtaking the US as Germany’s largest trading partner for 2025 (€251.8B vs €240.5B).
Thursday’s central-bank decisions delivered no rate surprises. The ECB cut 25 bps to 2.00%; the BoE held at 3.75%. Nevertheless, the MPC split caught attention — four members voted for a cut versus the two expected, signalling a dovish tilt.
In the UK, Halifax house prices rose 0.7% MoM in January, beating the +0.1% forecast and pushing the average home above £300,000 for the first time. By contrast, eurozone retail sales fell 0.5% MoM, worse than expected. The EU retaliatory tariff suspension expires today.
Key Facts
— Germany’s industrial recession is not over. Thursday’s factory orders beat (+7.8%) gave false hope — production cannot keep pace when autos are imploding. The BoE’s dovish split offers monetary tailwinds, but Greenland tariff escalation and a frozen EU-US trade deal keep headline risk elevated. Watch next week’s UK and eurozone Q4 GDP.
Asia-Pacific
RBI holds; RBA hikes; Japan consumer slump
India’s RBI held the repo rate at 5.25% by unanimous vote, pausing after 125 bps of cumulative cuts since February 2025. Inflation at 1.33% sits well below the tolerance band. Furthermore, GDP growth was revised up to 7.4% and the India-US trade deal has halved tariffs to 18%.
In addition, the RBI announced ₹1 trillion in OMO bond purchases plus $5 billion in forex swaps to speed rate transmission. The message: the easing cycle is on pause, not over, but the bar for another cut has risen considerably.
Meanwhile, Australia’s RBA surprised markets earlier in the week by hiking 25 bps to 3.85% — its first increase in over two years. Governor Bullock appeared before Parliament today to defend the decision, citing stickier inflation and strong private demand.
Japan’s December household spending plunged −2.9% MoM and −2.6% YoY, far worse than expectations. This reversed November’s strong +6.2% MoM gain. The whipsaw underscores consumer fragility and complicates the BoJ’s tightening narrative. South Korea’s current account surplus widened to $18.7 billion.
Key Facts
— India is the standout — growth upgraded, inflation sub-target, trade deal tailwinds, policy stability. The RBA’s hawkish pivot is the region’s wild card. Japan’s spending collapse is a red flag for BoJ hawks. China inflation data next week will be pivotal for broader APAC sentiment.
Latin America
Banxico holds; Canada mixed; Brazil trade softens
Mexico’s Banxico held its overnight rate at 7.00% on Thursday, matching expectations. The decision follows 300 bps of cuts in 2025. Core inflation above 4% and the looming USMCA review keep further easing off the table for now.
As a result, the peso held steady near 18.3 to the dollar. Mexico’s economy stagnated in 2025 (growth near 0.1%) and fixed investment has fallen for 13 straight months. Stickier services inflation and a potential World Cup-driven summer price spike constrain the central bank.
Brazil’s January trade balance came in at $4.34 billion, below the $4.90 billion consensus but still healthy. Full-year 2025 posted a $68.3 billion surplus. Exports were buoyed by soybeans, beef, and coffee.
Canada’s labour data was a genuine mixed bag: employment fell 24,800 versus +7,000 expected, but the unemployment rate dropped to a 16-month low of 6.5% as fewer people searched for work. Manufacturing shed 28,000 jobs — a direct tariff casualty. The BoC is expected to stay on hold at 2.25%.
Key Facts
— Mexico’s rate cycle is effectively done — sticky inflation and USMCA risk keep Banxico sidelined. Brazil’s trade engine remains solid. Canada’s headline unemployment drop masks genuine weakness: the labour force is shrinking, manufacturing is bleeding, and the participation rate’s 0.4pp plunge was one of the sharpest outside a pandemic.
Trades & Tilts
Previously: Global Economy Briefing — February 5, 2026. Sources include Destatis, RBI, and University of Michigan.
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