\n
\n
\n
\n
\nB3 stole the show. The exchange operator surged 4.8% to a 52-week high after a brokerage upgrade to buy, single-handedly dragging the Ibovespa into positive territory and offsetting broad weakness in financials.
\n
\nBradesco disappointed despite solid numbers. The bank posted R$6.5B (~$1.2B) in 4Q25 net income, up 20.6% y/y, but conservative 2026 guidance sent shares down over 4%, dragging the broader banking sector lower.
\n
\nMacro signals stayed mixed. Brazil’s Finance Ministry cut its 2026 GDP forecast to 2.3% and raised inflation to 3.6%, while Amazon’s $200B AI spending plan rattled global tech sentiment at the open.
\n
\n
\n
\n
| Indicator | Level | Change |
| Ibovespa (Close) | 182,950 | +0.45% |
| Ibovespa All-Time High (Intraday) | 187,334 | Feb 3, 2026 |
| USD/BRL (Close) | 5.2555 | +0.33% |
| Brent Crude | US$ 67.85 | +0.77% |
| S&P 500 | 6,878 | -0.57% |
| Nasdaq | 22,882 | -1.60% |
| Dollar Index (DXY) | 97.48 | +0.18% |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | US$ 73,129 | -4.74% |
| VIX | 18.80 | +4.44% |
\n
\n
\n
\n
\nB3 rallies, banks diverge
\n
The Ibovespa today closed 0.5% higher at 182,950, recovering from an intraday low of 181,391 after Amazon’s $200 billion AI spending plan rattled global tech stocks and dragged US futures lower at the open. Exchange operator B3 (B3SA3) was the session’s standout, surging 4.8% to R$16.96 (~$3.23) — a new 52-week high — after a brokerage upgraded the stock to buy. Itaúsa (ITSA4) climbed nearly 3%, while Itaú Unibanco (ITUB4) extended its post-earnings rally with a 2.7% gain following Wednesday’s record fourth-quarter profit of R$12.3 billion. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of the Brazilian stock market and Latin American financial markets.
\n
Bradesco (BBDC4) was the day’s most prominent drag. The bank reported solid fourth-quarter results — recurring net income of R$6.5 billion (~$1.2 billion), up 20.6% year-over-year, with ROAE of 15.2% — but its conservative 2026 guidance disappointed investors, sending shares down more than 4%. CEO Marcelo Noronha flagged a target of 40 million digital clients by year-end and guided loan portfolio growth of 8.5% to 10.5%, but the market wanted more. Banco do Brasil (BBAS3) fell over 1%, Santander Brasil (SANB11) slipped 1.7%, and the financial sector remained broadly under pressure for a second consecutive session.
\n
Elsewhere, Petrobras edged lower amid choppy oil ahead of US-Iran talks in Oman, while Vale drifted despite Itaú BBA’s recent ADR target raise to $19. Retailers showed resilience — C&A (CEAB3) rose 3% and Eletrobras added over 1%. On the macro front, Brazil’s Finance Ministry trimmed its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.3% and raised its inflation projection to 3.6%. Politically, the market continues to digest the impending nomination of Guilherme Mello to the Central Bank’s board, with his heterodox credentials fueling concern about a dovish tilt just as the Copom prepares to cut rates in March.
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
XP Investimentos, which recently raised its year-end Ibovespa target to 190,000 points (optimistic scenario: 235,000), characterized the week’s volatility as consistent with normal dynamics following a 15%+ rally in five weeks. Foreign inflows of R$26.3 billion (~$5 billion) in January nearly matched the full-year 2025 total, and XP sees domestic institutional flows rotating into equities once the Selic cutting cycle confirms.
\n
Bruno Shahini, investment specialist at Nomad, noted that the majority probability is for a 50-basis-point cut in March, adding: “The drop in future interest rates combined with strong foreign inflows resulted in yet another closing record for the Ibovespa earlier this week.”
\n
Santander’s economics team offered a more cautious read, arguing that the Copom’s emphasis on “serenidade” in the January minutes suggests an opening move of just 25 basis points — a view that, if correct, could temper the rally temporarily.
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
| Level | Points | Significance |
| Resistance 3 | 187,334 | All-time intraday high (Feb 3) |
| Resistance 2 | 185,674 | Record close (Feb 3) |
| Resistance 1 | 183,262 | Friday session high |
| Current | 182,950 | Friday close |
| Support 1 | 180,146 | 4H Bollinger midline |
| Support 2 | 177,434 | 4H Ichimoku cloud top |
| Support 3 | 175,454 | 4H lower Bollinger band |
\n
\n
The weekly chart remains firmly bullish with the RSI at 83.10 — deep in overbought territory, consistent with a strong trend rather than an imminent reversal. The weekly MACD histogram reads +2,298, confirming persistent upward momentum. On the daily timeframe, the RSI has moderated to 76.43 after this week’s volatility, while price holds well above the Ichimoku cloud and all major moving averages.
\n
On the 4-hour chart, the picture is more nuanced. The RSI sits at 60.83 — neutral-bullish — while the MACD histogram has turned slightly negative at -506, reflecting the consolidation after Tuesday’s record high. Bollinger Bands are tightening near the top of the range, suggesting a directional move is building. A break above 183,262 (Friday’s high) reopens the path to the all-time high at 187,334; a loss of 180,146 would target the Ichimoku cloud top at 177,434.
\n
\n
\n
\n
\nCopom, Carnival, elections
\n
The Copom meeting on March 17–18 remains the dominant catalyst. Policymakers signaled in January that easing would begin at the next meeting, and the market is pricing a 50bp cut as the base case. Earnings season continues — B3 reports February 26. Carnival shuts the exchange February 16–17, with reduced hours on Ash Wednesday the 18th.
\n
On the political front, the 2026 election cycle is beginning to intrude on market calculations. Recent polls show the race tightening, and the Guilherme Mello nomination to the BCB board has introduced a new variable into the monetary policy outlook. With the index still up 13.5% year-to-date and foreign flows showing no signs of abating, the structural bull case remains intact — but elevated volatility is the price of admission as earnings season and political risk intensify simultaneously.
\n
\n
\n
\n
\nVerdict
\n
The weekly RSI above 83 and the index 2.4% below its all-time high frame the tension perfectly: record foreign inflows versus overbought technicals, a confirmed rate-cutting cycle versus election uncertainty. A March cut extends the rally; a hawkish surprise tests conviction fast.
\n
\n
\n
For broader market context, see Brazil’s Morning Call for this date.