Global Copper Market Navigates Trade Tensions as Prices Steady at $4.75/lb

The benchmark COMEX copper price stands at $4.75 per pound this morning, with CFDs on copper trading at $4.80466, showing a marginal decline of 0.05%. Copper has increased nearly 19% since the beginning of 2025.

This rise comes despite recent volatility triggered by escalating US-China trade tensions. Markets reopened today following the Easter weekend break, with the London Metal Exchange having remained closed on Friday and Monday.

Electronic trading continued through Asian markets with limited volume as traders assessed ongoing trade disputes. The metal has stabilized after recovering from the dramatic April 7 selloff, which marked copper’s largest single-day decline since 2020.

The US copper market continues to see substantial inventory buildup. CME warehouse stocks reached 119,772 short tons by mid-April, the highest level since December 2018.

This stockpiling trend directly links to anticipation of potential Section 232 tariffs on copper imports, creating artificial demand pressures in domestic markets.

Contrasting with US stockpiling, the Shanghai market has experienced rapid depletion of copper inventories. Stocks dropped by nearly 43,000 tons to 182,000 tons last week.

The Yangshan premium, which measures import demand, has surged from $35 to $87 per ton, indicating domestic supply tightness in China. Structural supply deficits continue providing fundamental support for prices.

Copper Market Tightens Amid Global Deficit

Chile’s state copper commission Cochilco estimates a global supply deficit of 189,000 metric tons for 2025. The International Copper Study Group reported a supply deficit of 19,000 metric tons in January alone, compared to a shortage of 22,000 metric tons in December 2024.

Goldman Sachs maintains its optimistic forecast for Q4 2025 copper prices at $10,200 per metric ton. The bank cites strong electrification demand and slowing mine supply growth as key factors.

Meanwhile, Trading Economics forecasts copper to trade at $4.71 per pound by the end of this quarter. Technical analysis shows copper trading in a consolidation pattern after rebounding from its April 7 low.

The price shows resistance around $4.80-4.85, with support established at $4.70. The metal trades above its 5-day moving average but remains below longer-term moving averages.

Market participants now focus on upcoming manufacturing data that could provide insights into demand trends. They also monitor statements from US and Chinese officials for signals regarding trade policy changes that might impact copper’s direction in the coming weeks.

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