EGYPT · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- —The country Egypt, the most populous Arab country, has leaned on three International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan programmes since 2016.
- —What happened In an interview reported on Sunday 4 October, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said the economy can now grow without a new IMF programme.
- —The deadline The current US$8 billion loan expires on 15 December 2026, after one final review.
- —The money at stake The IMF says the loan’s last review and a review of a climate fund could together release about US$2.3 billion.
- —The catch The IMF says asset sales lag, with only about US$520 million raised by July.
- —The pound The pound has slipped past 52 to the dollar, from about 48 before the Iran war began in February.
- —What comes next Cairo plans to unveil its own economic plan, with targets up to 2045, by the end of October.
Egypt sees no need for a new IMF programme once its current loan from the International Monetary Fund ends in December. Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said in an interview reported on Sunday 4 October that the economy can now grow without one.
The US$8 billion deal expires on 15 December 2026, and the IMF plans final reviews worth about US$2.3 billion before then. Madbouly says a home-grown plan with targets up to 2045 is due by the end of October.
What Madbouly Said About the IMF
Madbouly spoke in an interview with CNN Business Arabic, reported by Egyptian media on Sunday 4 October. He said Egypt has had three programmes with the Fund since 2016.
The first ran from 2016 to 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic then led to a second one, followed by the current deal.
Madbouly said these were in essence Egyptian national programmes. Cairo set the targets, he explained, and discussed with the Fund how to reach them.
Despite regional and global shocks, he said, the economy can now take off without a new IMF programme. He added that ordinary Egyptians carried the heaviest burden of the reforms.
The Final Review and the US$2.3 Billion at Stake
The current loan is an Extended Fund Facility (EFF), a medium-term IMF loan tied to economic reforms. The IMF approved it on 16 December 2022 and enlarged it by about US$5 billion in March 2024.
The arrangement now runs for 48 months and ends on 15 December 2026. Each review tests Egypt against agreed targets and releases the next slice of money.
On 30 July 2026, the IMF board completed the seventh review. It released about US$1.5 billion from the main loan and US$272 million from a climate-focused Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).
Total payments under both arrangements reached SDR 5.4 billion (about US$7.3 billion), the IMF said. The SDR, or special drawing right, is the Fund’s own unit of account.
IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said on 1 October that two more reviews are due between October and December. Together, she said, the final EFF review and a third RSF review would make about US$2.3 billion available.
Madbouly said the last review should begin in October. If it succeeds, Egypt can declare the IMF programme finished at the end of December.
The Sticking Point: State-Owned Companies
A key concern for the Fund is the state’s large role in business. Kozack called state-owned enterprises “a key program focus”.
Her list starts with faster asset sales and a state-ownership policy that is actually applied. It also asks for fair competition between state firms and private ones, and better governance of state companies.
In July, the IMF said efforts to shrink the state’s role had “progressed more slowly than anticipated”. Asset sales had raised only about US$520 million by then.
The Fund wants Egypt to keep its exchange rate flexible while it keeps building reserves. In July it also backed the announced return of Egypt’s automatic fuel pricing system, which aims to cut untargeted energy subsidies.
The Pound Weakens Past 52 to the Dollar
The IMF exit talk comes as the Egyptian pound weakens again. At Sunday’s close, Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) data put the selling rate at 52.36 pounds to the dollar, Ahram Online reported.
A week earlier, the selling rate was 51.78 pounds per dollar, so the pound lost about 1.1%. Ahram Online said the dollar last traded at similar levels on 25 May.
Before the US-Israeli war on Iran broke out at the end of February, the rate was about 48 pounds per dollar. That slide is part of a 2026 picture of record reserves and a weaker pound.
On Monday 5 October, the two big state-owned banks quoted a selling rate of 52.43 pounds per dollar. They are National Bank of Egypt and Banque Misr, Ahram Auto reported.
What It Means for US Readers
For investors, the current programme’s reviews have been a regular outside check on Egypt’s finances since 2022. Without a new IMF programme, those programme reviews end with the loan in December.
Private business is under strain too. S&P Global’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for Egypt’s non-oil private sector fell to 47.2 in September, from 49.6 in August.
Any PMI reading below 50 means activity is shrinking, according to the survey released on Monday 5 October. Official figures show Egypt grew 5.1% in fiscal 2025/26, and the government targets 5.4% in the year that began in July.
For visitors, a dollar buys more pounds than it did before the war. On Sunday 4 October, the petroleum ministry denied rumours of new fuel prices and said its pricing committee has not met.
An unnamed source told Ahram Online that a rise like March’s 14% to 17% could come before the end of December. Diesel increases feed straight into public transport fares, the source said.
For policy watchers, state asset sales are the item to follow. Faster sales come first on the IMF’s list of priorities for Egypt.
What Is Not Known
The IMF has named a quarter, not a date, for the final review. Nor is it public whether the board vote will come before the loan expires on 15 December.
The targets in Cairo’s 2045 plan have not been published. Madbouly also did not say whether Egypt would keep any non-lending link with the Fund after the IMF programme ends.
What Comes Next
The final review is due to start in October, Madbouly said. The government plans to present its national plan by the end of the same month.
If the review passes, Egypt can declare the IMF programme over at the end of December. Any fuel price decision will come from the petroleum ministry’s pricing committee.
More: Egypt news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Will Egypt sign a new IMF programme?
Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly says it does not need one. In an interview reported on Sunday 4 October, he said the economy can now grow without a new IMF programme.
When does Egypt’s current IMF loan end?
The Extended Fund Facility expires on 15 December 2026. The IMF plans one final review in the fourth quarter of 2026.
How much IMF money is still at stake?
The IMF says the final reviews would make about US$2.3 billion available. Payments under both arrangements had reached about US$7.3 billion by July.
What is the Egyptian pound worth now?
Central Bank of Egypt data put the selling rate at 52.36 pounds to the dollar on Sunday 4 October. Before the Iran war began in late February, the rate was about 48 pounds per dollar.
What will replace the IMF programme?
The government says it will present a national economic plan by the end of October. It sets targets up to 2045 and is being finalised without help from international institutions.
Sources: Al Mal News, Prime Minister: Egypt’s programme with the IMF nears its end (Arabic), 4 October 2026; Sada El Balad, Prime Minister: we move from IMF programmes to a national vision to 2045 (Arabic), 4 October 2026; Sada El Balad, Madbouly: economy can take off without a new phase with the IMF (Arabic), 4 October 2026; The National, interview report on Prime Minister Madbouly, 4 October 2026; IMF, press briefing transcript (Julie Kozack), 1 October 2026; IMF, Executive Board completes seventh EFF review and second RSF review for Egypt, 30 July 2026; IMF, Executive Board completes first and second EFF reviews for Egypt, approves augmentation, 29 March 2024; Ahram Online, Egyptian pound stabilizes over weekend, 4 October 2026; Ahram Online, Egypt denies fuel price hike rumours, says pricing committee has not met, 4 October 2026; Ahram Online, Egypt non-oil private sector contracts again in September: S&P, 5 October 2026; Ahram Auto, bank exchange rates at the end of Monday trading (Arabic), 5 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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