Ecopetrol Q2 Profit Seen Up 75% Near US$1.25bn on Brent Rally

Energy: Colombia

Colombia’s state oil champion is set to unveil what analysts call its best quarter in nearly three years on Monday, as a surge in Brent prices masks a steady slide in production and a boardroom in flux.

A Preview Built on a Brent Windfall

Ecopetrol has not yet published its April-June accounts; the figures below are analyst projections ahead of Monday’s release. The market’s average forecast, compiled by Colombian daily La República, puts second-quarter net income near COP 5.05 trillion (about US$1.25 billion), a 75.3% leap from the first three months of the year.

If confirmed, that would be Ecopetrol’s strongest quarterly result in almost three years. The last time profit cleared the COP 5 trillion (about US$1.23 billion) mark was the third quarter of 2023, when it reached COP 5.08 trillion (about US$1.25 billion).

The swing is almost entirely a price story. Brent crude averaged about US$96 a barrel between April and June, lifted by conflict in the Middle East that stoked fears over supply. For a company that sells oil into a global market, every extra dollar on the barrel flows quickly to the bottom line.

Why the Numbers Could Still Disappoint

Analysts caution that the improvement comes from forces outside Ecopetrol’s control. Bancolombia’s head of economic research, Laura Clavijo, framed Brent as the main driver, alongside a narrower gap between the price of Ecopetrol’s crude basket and the international benchmark.

Production, by contrast, is a weak spot the company does manage. Corficolombiana estimates oil output fell about 6.3% from a year earlier to roughly 708,000 barrels a day, in line with a broader decline in Colombian oil and gas. Ecopetrol itself guided to 700,000-710,000 barrels a day for the quarter.

A stronger peso is another quiet drag. The average exchange rate firmed from COP 3,690 per US dollar in the first quarter to COP 3,602 in the second, and analysts reckon every COP 100 drop in the rate trims roughly COP 800 billion (about US$198 million) a year from profit because so much revenue is dollar-linked.

The Spread of Analyst Estimates

Forecasts vary widely, a reminder that this is a preview and not a result. Grupo Cibest sits at the cautious end, projecting revenue of COP 38.26 trillion (about US$9.4 billion), EBITDA of COP 15.68 trillion (about US$3.9 billion) and net income of COP 4.56 trillion (about US$1.13 billion), the lowest among the estimates surveyed.

Others see the profit line closer to or above COP 5 trillion (about US$1.23 billion). The range underscores how sensitive the quarter is to a handful of moving parts: the Brent average, refining margins, the crude-quality discount and the peso.

For the full year, BTG Pactual Colombia lifted its revenue call to COP 109.3 trillion (about US$27 billion) and its EBITDA estimate to COP 49.24 trillion (about US$12.2 billion), while trimming its production forecast to 713,000 barrels a day and warning the company is unlikely to meet its 730,000-740,000 target.

A Boardroom in Transition

The results arrive in the middle of a leadership overhaul. Ricardo Roa, a close ally of President Gustavo Petro, has left the presidency of the company, and the board named Juan Carlos Hurtado Parra as acting president from July 31 while a search for a permanent chief executive runs.

The board itself has reshuffled at the top. Ángela María Robledo and Tatiana Roa Avendaño resigned their seats effective July 31; the board then appointed Luis Felipe Henao Cardona as chair and Hildebrando Vélez Galeano as vice-chair. Another non-independent director had stepped down in May.

The timing is not coincidental. Colombia inaugurates a new government on August 7, closing the Petro era, and control of Ecopetrol’s board typically shifts with the presidency. Whoever takes charge inherits both a price-driven profit rebound and the deeper problem of a shrinking production base.

What Foreign Readers Should Watch

Ecopetrol is not just another oil company; the Colombian state owns close to 88% of it, and its dividends are a meaningful line in the national budget. A stronger quarter eases fiscal pressure, while a weak one ripples into public finances.

For investors, the reception has been guarded. US-listed shares trade near a 52-week high around US$16, yet the average Wall Street rating is cautious, reflecting doubts about production, Colombia’s energy-transition politics and the company’s limited control over its own earnings swings.

The key questions on Tuesday’s call are whether management can arrest the output decline, how it will handle the crude-quality discount, and what the incoming administration signals about strategy. A single strong, oil-fueled quarter does not settle any of them. Investors can follow the release through Ecopetrol’s investor relations page.

More: Colombia news in English, every day from The Rio Times.

Frequently Asked Questions

When does Ecopetrol report its second-quarter 2026 results?

Ecopetrol is scheduled to publish its Q2 2026 financial and operating results after the market close on Monday, August 3, 2026, followed by a bilingual conference call on Tuesday, August 4 at 11:30 a.m. New York time.

Why are Ecopetrol’s Q2 profits expected to rise so sharply?

Analysts attribute the projected 75.3% quarter-on-quarter jump mainly to higher oil prices, with Brent averaging about US$96 a barrel from April to June, plus a narrower discount on Ecopetrol’s crude basket. The gain comes despite falling production.

How much profit do analysts expect Ecopetrol to report?

The market’s average forecast compiled by La República is net income near COP 5.05 trillion (about US$1.25 billion), which would be Ecopetrol’s best quarter in almost three years. Estimates range from about COP 4.56 trillion (about US$1.13 billion) upward.

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