Covid-19 Cases and Deaths Start to Retreat in Most Brazilian States

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The first half of October registered yet another retraction in the numbers of cases and deaths of the novel coronavirus in Brazil. In all, 16 of 27 states saw a drop in the number of new infections and the situation was even better with respect to deaths: 19 states saw their numbers drop.

This positive scenario is not seen in only three Northeastern states. Piauí saw a 53.7 percent increase in deaths, while Sergipe and Rio Grande do Norte saw a rise in both – the latter with the worst rates: 137.1 percent growth in cases and 334.9 in deaths.

The comparisons were based on the rolling average, an indicator that considers the average of cases recorded in each seven-day period. The survey considers that there was an increase or decrease only when the variation rate is above 15 percent, according to the World Health Organization criteria – below that, the scenario is classified as stable, irrespective of the change in numbers.

The situation in Brazil’s Midwest and South regions is noteworthy because these regions are finally controlling the disease and recording a drop. Of the seven states, only Santa Catarina has failed to reach a level below 15 percent in the rolling average of cases over the past fortnight (it had an increase of 10.3 percent). In relation to deaths, the Federal District (10.2 percent increase) is also classified stable.

Brazil is starting to reach a situation of case control. Over the past three weeks, the rate of coronavirus transmission has fallen below 1 – the control level, according to the Imperial College of London assessment. The rate shows how many people each infected person passes the virus and it is at 0.93 for the period, which means that every 100 infected people pass on to another 93 and no longer to a number higher than one hundred, as was the case at the time of the peak of the disease.

STATE-BY-STATE CASES

Rising (two states): Rio Grande do Norte and Sergipe
Stable (nine states): Amapá, Bahia, Ceará, Espírito Santo, Paraíba, Piauí, Roraima, Santa Catarina and São Paulo.
Declining (16 states): Acre, Alagoas, Amazonas, Federal District, Goiás, Maranhão, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Gross, Pará, Pernambuco, Paraná, Rio de Janeiro, Rondônia, Rio Grande do Sul, and Tocantins.

STATE-BY-STATE DEATHS

Rising (three states): Piauí, Rio Grande do Norte, and Sergipe.
Stable (five states): Alagoas, Federal District, Maranhão, Paraíba and Rio de Janeiro.
Declining (19 states): Acre, Amazonas, Amapá, Bahia, Ceará, Espírito Santo, Goiás, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Pará, Pernambuco, Paraná, Rondônia, Roraima, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, São Paulo, and Tocantins.

Source: Veja