Copper Tracker Rises 0.6% as Chile Strike Risk Offsets Firm Dollar

01 The session in one read

Copper traded in two directions on Tuesday, September 29. The futures-tracking fund CPER closed at US$39.93, up 0.63%, while London copper slipped 0.36% to US$14,425.50 a tonne.

Southern Copper finished nearly flat at US$202.55, down 0.04%, and Freeport-McMoRan fell 1.63% to US$70.79. COMEX copper futures settled near US$6.54 a pound, down about 0.3%.

02 The board

The fund and the producers moved apart. CPER follows copper futures contracts, not physical copper, so its 0.63% gain reflects futures pricing at the US close.

Southern Copper’s 0.04% slip to US$202.55 signals steadiness, while Freeport-McMoRan’s 1.63% fall to US$70.79 extended its weak run from Monday.

Source: RT live market data, close of Tuesday 29 September 2026. CPER is an exchange-traded fund that tracks copper futures and is shown as a labelled proxy.

03 What moved it

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange closed at US$14,425.50 a tonne, down 0.36%, after trading between US$14,399.50 and US$14,483. A firmer dollar was the main drag: the dollar index rose 0.17% to 101.37, its highest close in two months, which makes dollar-priced metal dearer for other buyers.

Chile supplied the offset. The Centinela strike vote came on top of weak Chilean output: national production fell 9.4% year on year in July.

China remains the centre of gravity. It refined about 14 million tonnes of copper in 2025, more than 48% of world output, while mining only 1.8 million tonnes at home, according to the US Geological Survey. The International Energy Agency has warned that mines now planned will fall short of demand by 2035.

04 Tuesday’s data, one by one

• China official PMIs (September): we flagged these for 01:30 UTC Wednesday (22:30 BRT Tuesday). Manufacturing rose to 50.1 from 49.8, matching the forecast and back in growth. Non-manufacturing jumped to 50.2 from 49.0, against a 49.3 forecast. The private RatingDog manufacturing PMI rose to 52.1 from 51.5, above the 51.6 forecast. This supports copper demand heading into the holiday.
• US JOLTS job openings (August): 7.079 million, below the 7.23 million forecast and down from 7.335 million. It cut Fed hike bets but did not weaken the dollar.
• US consumer confidence (September): 81.9 against an 89.2 forecast, the lowest since 2014. Short-term Treasury yields eased, but the 10-year held at 5.25%; we had flagged yields as the main macro risk.
• China current account (second quarter): a surplus of US$193.7 billion, just under the US$195.1 billion forecast. No market effect.
• Brazil IGP-M (September): FGV’s wholesale-led price index rose 1.57% in the month, close to the 1.60% forecast. No effect on copper.
• Peru supply: we flagged Peru’s output as a risk. We found no reported disruption on Tuesday; Peru’s July copper output rose 3.7% year on year, according to the Energy and Mines Ministry.
• China grid spending: we flagged grid and EV demand as the key pillars. No new monthly figures were due on Tuesday; the PMI rebound is the latest demand signal.
• Mining equities: we flagged that miners had fallen less than futures on Monday. On Tuesday the pattern reversed, with Freeport down 1.63% while CPER rose.

05 The Latin American read

Chile mined about 5.3 million tonnes of copper in 2025, roughly 23% of world output, according to the US Geological Survey. State-owned Codelco and BHP, which runs Escondida, are its largest producers.

Peru produced about 2.7 million tonnes, just under 12% of the world total, third behind the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Southern Copper and Freeport-McMoRan, through Cerro Verde, run major mines in Peru. With so much supply concentrated in two countries, a strike or outage there moves global prices quickly.

06 The names to watch

Antofagasta Minerals is the name to watch this week, as the Centinela mediation runs its course. A strike at a mine of that size would tighten an already stretched Chilean supply picture.

Freeport-McMoRan at US$70.79 is more sensitive to copper swings and costs, and it has lost ground two days running. Southern Copper at US$202.55 remains the steadier of the two.

07 The outlook

Copper’s structural case rests on electrification, Chinese grid spending and renewable-energy equipment. In the short term, the balance is between Chilean supply risk and a firm dollar. With Chinese markets closing for the National Day holiday from Thursday, October 1, trading may thin, and moves in London could be sharper.

08 What to watch

• Chile August data: 12:00 UTC (09:00 BRT): copper production (down 9.4% year on year in July), industrial production (forecast −3.0% after −5.1%) and unemployment (forecast 9.5%).
• Centinela mediation: whether Antofagasta Minerals and the unions reach a deal before the five-day mediation ends.
• US PCE inflation (August): 12:30 UTC (09:30 BRT); a hot reading would lift yields and the dollar and weigh on copper.
• Colombia rate decision: Banco de la República announces at 18:00 UTC (15:00 BRT); the calendar consensus is no change.
• Japan Tankan survey (third quarter): 23:50 UTC (20:50 BRT), a read on large manufacturers’ confidence in a major copper-consuming economy.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did copper prices move differently across the board?

CPER tracks copper futures and rose 0.63%, while London copper fell 0.36% on a firmer dollar and Freeport-McMoRan shares dropped 1.63%.

What is happening at Chile’s Centinela mine?

Unions at Antofagasta Minerals’ Centinela mine rejected the company’s contract offer, with 98.73% voting to strike; a five-day government mediation must run before any strike.

Is Peru the world’s second-largest copper producer?

No. Chile is first with about 5.3 million tonnes in 2025, the Democratic Republic of Congo second, and Peru third with about 2.7 million tonnes, according to the US Geological Survey.

Why does China matter so much for copper?

China refined about 14 million tonnes of copper in 2025, more than 48% of global output, while mining only 1.8 million tonnes at home.

Source: RT live market data, close of Tuesday 29 September 2026.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated AI newsroom. Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief. The Rio Times also runs Ask Rio Times, which answers from 100,000+ of our own articles, the daily Latin America Power Map, and prediction-market odds on elections and markets.. How we use AI · Report an error

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