Copper Market Finds Support from China Despite Global Trade Uncertainty

Trading data from global metal exchanges reveals copper prices stabilizing at $4.64 per pound on April 17, following significant volatility earlier this month.

This represents a 1.71% decline from yesterday’s close but maintains much of the recovery from early April’s sharp downturn. Shanghai copper futures showed relative strength this morning, rising 0.7% to 76,090 yuan ($10,413) per ton.

The resilience in Asian markets stems largely from better-than-expected Chinese economic data released yesterday. China’s economy grew by 5.4% in the first quarter of 2025, exceeding analyst estimates thanks to solid industrial output and consumption figures.

Daniel Hynes, senior commodity analyst at ANZ Bank, noted that “copper led base metals higher after better-than-expected economic data in China boosted confidence.”

This positive economic signal from the world’s largest metal consumer provides a counterbalance to ongoing trade concerns. The copper market continues to process escalating US-China tensions.

Recent moves by Beijing to block Boeing aircraft deliveries and US restrictions on Nvidia AI chip exports have heightened concerns about broader trade disruptions. These developments add uncertainty to an already complex market dynamic.

Copper Market Update

LME warehouse stocks stand at 216,250 metric tons as of April 16, continuing a downward trend that began in February when inventories topped 260,000 tons. This tightening physical supply picture supports prices despite macroeconomic headwinds.

Currency factors also play a significant role in copper‘s current trading range. The dollar index remains near three-year lows, making dollar-denominated metals more attractive to holders of other currencies and providing additional price support.

Investment flows show mixed signals. The Sprott Copper Miners ETF (COPP) posted modest gains yesterday with its NAV rising to $18.27, a daily increase of 0.44%.

However, broader commodities and materials sector funds experienced significant outflows, reflecting investor caution. Supply considerations remain relatively stable.

Data from Peru, a major copper producer, showed essentially flat output in February compared to the same month last year. ANZ warns that if global GDP growth drops below 3%, copper demand could see a 5-10% reduction.

The copper price chart shows a recovery from early April’s dramatic sell-off when prices plunged below $4.10. Current trading near $4.64 represents a significant rebound but remains well below the $5.00+ levels seen in late March.

Market participants are now watching for signs of how trade tensions might evolve. They are also keen to see whether Chinese economic momentum can maintain enough demand to support prices.

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