Colombia’s Peso Holds Firm As Stocks Extend Record Run On Conservative-Friendly Flows

The Colombian peso was steady in early Thursday trade, with USD/COP hovering near 3,835—virtually on top of the day’s TRM—and tracking a Dollar Index around 100.

With Brent anchored in the mid-$60s, external headwinds were manageable while high real carry at home kept the currency resilient. Dealers described orderly two-way flows overnight and another session respecting the 3,830–3,860 corridor.

Equities did the heavy lifting. The MSCI Colcap notched fresh records this week and opened with a constructive tone after Wednesday’s 0.9% gain.

The rally has been fueled by bargain valuations and stronger bank earnings, themes that typically reward policy orthodoxy and fiscal discipline.

Local desks also point to expectations of a more market-friendly turn in 2026 politics—an undercurrent that has invited steady foreign interest.

By contrast, initiatives perceived as interventionist or dirigiste continue to meet skepticism, leaving state-heavy or regulation-sensitive names lagging on up days.

Momentum remains powerful on the charts. On four-hour frames, COLCAP shows a clean breakout from an autumn coil, rising averages, and overbought RSI that argues for shallow, buyable dips.

The peso’s technicals are more balanced: USD/COP’s four-hour trend tilts lower with a subdued MACD, while the daily remains capped beneath short-term moving averages; support sits near 3,810–3,800, resistance at 3,860–3,900. In short, equities are trending; FX is ranging.

Fundamentals back the move. BanRep’s latest report kept the policy rate sufficiently restrictive while inflation expectations eased, preserving a cushion that rewards peso holders.

Softer U.S. yields and a range-bound dollar help, even as cheaper crude tempers the upside for Colombia’s terms of trade.

Wednesday’s leaders and laggards told a familiar story. Top winners: Grupo de Inversiones Suramericana (common), Grupo Aval Pref, Grupo de Inversiones Suramericana (pref), Grupo Bolívar, and Grupo Energía Bogotá.

Top losers: Mineros, Grupo Nutresa, Terpel, Davivienda Pref, and ISA. The mix reflects investors favoring private-sector efficiency and capital discipline, while names sensitive to policy uncertainty, commodity volatility, or regulatory noise took a breather.

Bottom line: With the dollar sidelined and local carry intact, Colombia’s market continues to reward conservative balance-sheet stewardship and predictable rules.

Unless oil breaks materially lower or policy signals wobble, dips in equities look tactical, while USD/COP should stay boxed until a decisive catalyst nudges DXY or BanRep guidance.