Colombia’s Peso Holds Firm As Stocks Extend Record Run On Conservative-Friendly Flows
The Colombian peso was steady in early Thursday trade, with USD/COP hovering near 3,835—virtually on top of the day’s TRM—and tracking a Dollar Index around 100.
With Brent anchored in the mid-$60s, external headwinds were manageable while high real carry at home kept the currency resilient. Dealers described orderly two-way flows overnight and another session respecting the 3,830–3,860 corridor.
Equities did the heavy lifting. The MSCI Colcap notched fresh records this week and opened with a constructive tone after Wednesday’s 0.9% gain.
The rally has been fueled by bargain valuations and stronger bank earnings, themes that typically reward policy orthodoxy and fiscal discipline.
Local desks also point to expectations of a more market-friendly turn in 2026 politics—an undercurrent that has invited steady foreign interest.
By contrast, initiatives perceived as interventionist or dirigiste continue to meet skepticism, leaving state-heavy or regulation-sensitive names lagging on up days.
Momentum remains powerful on the charts. On four-hour frames, COLCAP shows a clean breakout from an autumn coil, rising averages, and overbought RSI that argues for shallow, buyable dips.
The peso’s technicals are more balanced: USD/COP’s four-hour trend tilts lower with a subdued MACD, while the daily remains capped beneath short-term moving averages; support sits near 3,810–3,800, resistance at 3,860–3,900. In short, equities are trending; FX is ranging.
Fundamentals back the move. BanRep’s latest report kept the policy rate sufficiently restrictive while inflation expectations eased, preserving a cushion that rewards peso holders.
Softer U.S. yields and a range-bound dollar help, even as cheaper crude tempers the upside for Colombia’s terms of trade.
Wednesday’s leaders and laggards told a familiar story. Top winners: Grupo de Inversiones Suramericana (common), Grupo Aval Pref, Grupo de Inversiones Suramericana (pref), Grupo Bolívar, and Grupo Energía Bogotá.
Top losers: Mineros, Grupo Nutresa, Terpel, Davivienda Pref, and ISA. The mix reflects investors favoring private-sector efficiency and capital discipline, while names sensitive to policy uncertainty, commodity volatility, or regulatory noise took a breather.
Bottom line: With the dollar sidelined and local carry intact, Colombia’s market continues to reward conservative balance-sheet stewardship and predictable rules.
Unless oil breaks materially lower or policy signals wobble, dips in equities look tactical, while USD/COP should stay boxed until a decisive catalyst nudges DXY or BanRep guidance.
More: Colombia news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Live Market IntelligenceColombia — Live Market Board
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Colombia — Live Market Board
+0.40%
185,147.15
-0.02%
64,866.61
-0.87%
11,315.26
-1.14%
3,049,121
-0.29%
2,544.56
+0.40%
59,978.22
-0.31%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COLCAP | 2,544.56 | +0.40% | — | 9.04 | 9.05 | 9.02 | 4,133 |
| USD/COP | 3,140 | +0.03% | -22.04% | 3,139 | 3,141 | 3,105 | — |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| ECOPETROL | 16.92 | -0.53% | +98.01% | 17.01 | 17.05 | 16.79 | 737,591 |
| BANCOLOMBIA | 95.87 | -2.18% | +96.15% | 98.01 | 100.36 | 95.73 | 188,740 |
| GRUPO AVAL | 5.40 | +2.66% | +76.89% | 5.26 | 5.49 | 5.32 | 146,447 |
| TECNOGLASS | 42.30 | -1.10% | -48.04% | 42.77 | 42.73 | 42.05 | 60,908 |
| CREDICORP | 375.17 | -0.49% | +49.60% | 377.00 | 384.43 | 372.27 | 88,375 |
| BUENAVENTURA | 34.45 | -1.02% | +88.07% | 34.80 | 35.62 | 34.33 | 275,831 |
| SOUTHERN COPPER | 193.97 | -0.26% | +104.01% | 194.48 | 199.36 | 192.59 | 367,102 |
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