Colombia Producer Prices Jump 2.2% in September on Oil
ECONOMY · COLOMBIA
Key Facts
- —The country Colombia, one of Latin America’s largest economies and a major exporter of oil, coal and coffee.
- —Why it matters Producer prices show cost pressure before it reaches shoppers, and Colombia’s inflation is already well above the central bank’s target.
- —Why now DANE, the national statistics agency, published September producer prices on Tuesday 6 October, 24 days before the next rate decision.
- —What happened Colombia producer prices rose 2.20% in September from August, the biggest monthly gain since March, led by crude oil, potatoes and coal.
- —The numbers Annual producer inflation was 2.20%, up from a revised 0.56% in August. Mining prices jumped 12.21% in the month.
- —What it means for you Higher input costs could keep consumer inflation and interest rates high, which matters for the peso, Colombian bonds and New York-listed Colombian shares.
- —Still open September consumer prices are not yet out. The central bank decides on Friday 30 October.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives no change at the 30 October meeting a 46.5% chance and a 25-point hike 38.5% (6 October, 3:27 p.m. ET).
Colombia producer prices rose 2.20% in September from August, the national statistics agency DANE said on Tuesday 6 October. The jump came almost entirely from mining, as crude oil and coal prices climbed.
For US readers, the number matters because Colombia is fighting inflation of 6.2% with a policy rate of 12.25%. Rising factory-gate costs make a quick rate cut less likely, which supports the peso but weighs on borrowers.
DANE, the Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística, runs the producer price index (IPP). It tracks what producers charge for goods made in Colombia, both for the home market and for export, before any shop margin.
Oil and Potatoes Drive the Monthly Jump
The 2.20% monthly rise compares with 0.55% in September 2025. Annual producer inflation also reached 2.20%, while prices are up 5.00% since December.
Mining and quarrying led with a 12.21% monthly rise, adding 1.51 percentage points to the total. Agriculture, livestock and fishing rose 2.35%. Manufacturing barely moved, up 0.22%.
Three products did most of the work. Crude oil rose 15.48%, potatoes 16.80% and unprocessed coal 7.44%. Together they added 1.68 points, according to DANE’s technical bulletin.
Other farm goods also rose. Fruiting vegetables gained 19.59% and plantains 13.75%. In factories, kerosene rose 9.77% and other fuels 5.93%.
Some prices fell. Coffee dropped 7.83% in the month, root vegetables 4.08% and other oil-bearing fruits 6.15%. These declines subtracted only 0.17 points.
Over twelve months the gap is wider. Potato prices are up 155.92% from September 2025, while coffee prices are down 32.36%.
Exports Up Sharply, Home Market Firmer
The split by destination tells two stories. Prices of goods exported rose 6.02% in the month, driven by crude oil and coal. Over a year, though, export prices are still down 2.30%.
Goods made and sold inside Colombia rose 1.14% in September and 3.60% from a year earlier. This is the part most likely to reach Colombian shoppers.
Import prices rose a modest 0.58%. Domestic supply, which combines local goods for the home market with imports, rose 1.01%.
DANE also tracks finished goods. Final goods made and consumed in Colombia rose 1.15% in September, while imported final goods rose 0.28%.
What It Means for Inflation and Rates
The Banco de la República, Colombia’s independent central bank, raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 12.25% on Wednesday 30 September. The decision split its seven-member board.
The minutes, published on Monday 5 October, show four directors voted for the rise, two wanted no change and one sought 50 points. Some directors noted in the minutes that the rate has risen 275 basis points since the end of 2025.
Consumer inflation rose from 6.0% in July to 6.2% in August, led by food and regulated prices. Core inflation, excluding food and regulated items, reached 6.1%, its highest since June 2024, the board noted.
September’s farm and fuel price gains point to more pressure in that pipeline. Lower coffee prices are a partial offset. The official peso reference rate for Tuesday, set from Monday’s trading, was COP 3,209.78 per US dollar.
See also Colombia Central Bank Minutes Reveal 4-2-1 Rate Split and Colombia Raises Its Policy Rate to 12.25%.
What It Means for You
For investors in Colombian bonds or in New York-listed shares such as Ecopetrol and Bancolombia, firm producer prices argue for rates staying high for longer. That tends to help the peso and hurt growth-sensitive stocks.
For US companies buying from Colombia, the export index matters. Oil and coal prices jumped in September, while coffee kept getting cheaper at the producer level.
For expats and visitors in Colombia, food is the channel to watch. Higher potato, plantain and vegetable prices at the farm gate can reach markets within weeks.
What Is Not Known
DANE does not explain why crude oil prices rose 15.48% in September. It is not clear how much reflects world prices and how much the exchange rate.
September figures are provisional. DANE says they can be revised for up to one month after publication.
DANE has not yet published September consumer prices, the figure the central bank watches most closely. How the board weighs today’s data on Friday 30 October is not known.
What Prediction Markets Say
Bets on Polymarket lean towards a pause but price a real chance of another rise. At 3:27 p.m. ET on Tuesday 6 October, no change on 30 October traded at a 46.5% chance.
A 25-point hike traded at 38.5% and a hike of 50 points or more at 14.5%. Each cut option traded at about 1% or less.
About US$33,700 has been traded on the October market, including about US$1,400 in the past 24 hours. The price for a 25-point hike has gained about 18 percentage points over the past week.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much did Colombia producer prices rise in September 2026?
Colombia producer prices for national production rose 2.20% in September from August and 2.20% from September 2025, DANE said. The figures are provisional and can be revised for one month.
What drove Colombia’s producer price jump?
Mining prices rose 12.21% in the month. Crude oil climbed 15.48%, potatoes 16.80% and coal 7.44%, together adding 1.68 percentage points. Coffee fell 7.83%.
Will Colombia’s central bank raise rates again in October?
It is not known. The Banco de la República raised its rate to 12.25% on 30 September in a split vote and meets again on Friday 30 October. September consumer prices are still to come.
Sources: DANE, Índice de Precios del Productor, septiembre 2026 · DANE, IPP technical bulletin (PDF) · DANE, IPP annex · Banco de la República, minutes of the September 2026 board meeting · Superintendencia Financiera, official exchange rate (TRM)
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America.