Colombia in Intensive Care: Spiral of Violence, Debt, and Diplomatic Upheaval

(Analysis) Colombia stands at a critical juncture in 2025, with official data and humanitarian agencies describing the country as being in “intensive care.”

The assassination attempt on presidential candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay in Bogotá on June 7, 2025, marked a grim reminder of the nation’s violent past. The attack, carried out by a minor, shocked citizens who recall the political murders of the 1980s and 1990s.

This event signals not just a resurgence of targeted violence, but a broader crisis that has engulfed the country from its cities to its most remote regions.

The roots of Colombia’s current crisis run deep. The peace accord signed in 2016 with the FARC guerrilla group initially reduced violence, but incomplete implementation left power vacuums across rural areas.

Armed groups such as the National Liberation Army (ELN), FARC dissidents, and the Gulf Clan have filled these gaps, expanding their presence and control.

By June 2024, the Gulf Clan operated in 392 municipalities, the ELN in 232, and FARC dissidents in 299—substantial increases over previous years.

These groups finance themselves through drug trafficking, illegal mining, and extortion, and have increasingly recruited children, particularly from Indigenous communities.

The Ombudsperson’s Office documented 409 cases of child recruitment in 2024, up from 342 in 2023. The humanitarian fallout is severe. In the first quarter of 2025 alone, violence and conflict affected 748,000 people—four times more than the same period in 2024.

Forced displacement and confinement have become widespread. In Catatumbo, fighting between armed groups displaced 58,032 people in the first three months of 2025, a 20 percent increase.

In Cauca and Chocó, 40,200 people remain confined due to sieges by non-state armed groups. Nationally, over 135,000 people were displaced in the first two months of 2025.

The United Nations estimates that 9.1 million Colombians need humanitarian assistance, with more than 9.8 million officially registered as victims of the conflict.

The violence is not limited to rural areas. In June 2025, coordinated attacks in the southwest killed civilians and police, while urban centers like Cali faced bombings and shootings.

Colombia Faces Deepening Humanitarian and Political Crisis

The International Committee of the Red Cross reported that 2024 saw the worst humanitarian situation in eight years, with 719 casualties from explosive devices—an 89 percent increase from the previous year.

Colombia’s government has struggled to respond. President Gustavo Petro’s “Total Peace” initiative, launched in 2022, aimed to negotiate with all armed groups but has yielded few results. Peace talks with the ELN and other groups have stalled or collapsed.

The government declared a “state of internal commotion” in Catatumbo in January 2025, deploying thousands of soldiers, but violence persists.

Political instability compounds the crisis, with frequent cabinet changes and growing public dissatisfaction—recent polls show a 64 percent disapproval rating for the president.

The economic impact is significant. Armed conflict disrupts transport, agriculture, and commerce, especially in regions dependent on these sectors. Businesses face high security costs, extortion, and loss of infrastructure.

Meanwhile, humanitarian organizations report increasing difficulty delivering aid. Flooding and natural disasters have worsened the situation, affecting thousands more and stretching the state’s limited resources.

Colombia’s fiscal regime, once a pillar of stability, has cracked under mounting pressure. The fiscal rule, established in 2011 to limit deficits and debt, was suspended in June 2025 for three years.

The government invoked an “escape clause,” allowing the deficit to rise to 7.1% of GDP, the highest since the pandemic, up from the previous 5.1% target. Public debt reached $203.3 billion, or 48.1% of GDP, with 56% held by the public sector and 44% by the private sector.

The Ministry of Finance implemented an austerity decree for 2025, cutting the budget by 12 trillion pesos after Congress rejected a proposed tax reform and the original budget.

The Autonomous Committee of the Fiscal Rule estimates a 52 trillion peso adjustment is needed to restore fiscal health. Credit agencies have warned of possible downgrades if fiscal discipline is not restored.

Amid these internal crises, Colombia’s foreign policy has shifted. In May 2025, Colombia formally joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative, seeking infrastructure investment and economic diversification.

This move has strained relations with the United States, Colombia’s traditional ally, leading to tariff threats and diplomatic tensions. The U.S. remains Colombia’s largest trading partner.

However, the pivot to China introduces new uncertainty for business and trade. Colombia’s “intensive care” status is the result of intertwined violence, humanitarian need, fiscal breakdown, and strategic realignment.

The country’s recovery depends on restoring security, rebuilding fiscal credibility, and carefully managing its international partnerships to avoid deeper isolation and instability.

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