COLCAP Rallies to 2,359 as Petro Drops Ecuador Tariffs

01 Market Snapshot

02 Equities — Third Gain, 2,370 in Sight

The COLCAP Colombia today enters Wednesday at its highest level since mid-February after a third consecutive gain pushed the index to 2,359.48. The three-session rally from the 2,302 breakout has added 2.5% in a straight line — the kind of persistent, low-volatility advance that characterises institutional accumulation rather than speculative chasing. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Colombia’s stock market and Latin American financial markets. For context, see our prior report: COLCAP Surges 1.98% as Iran Blockade Sends Oil Above $100.

Tuesday’s session was a textbook continuation day. The index opened at 2,347 (Monday’s close), dipped to 2,332 in the first hour as oil’s retreat from $99 triggered some profit-taking, then rallied through the session to touch 2,367 before settling at 2,359. The close in the upper quarter of the range is constructive. Tuesday’s top gainers were Grupo Argos Preferred (+3.31% to COP 13,120), Celsia (+3.04% to COP 5,770), and Banco Davivienda Preferred (+3.03% to COP 25,200). The breadth was positive, with rising stocks outnumbering declining ones. Grupo Aval Preferred (−2.59%) and ISA (−1.71%) were the notable laggards.

The 2,370 resistance level — the March swing high and the last barrier before the index enters the 2,400–2,562 recovery zone — is now just 11 points away. Tuesday’s intraday high of 2,367 came within 3 points of the level. A clean break above 2,370 would be the most significant technical event since the 2,300 breakout last Friday.

03 Petro Drops Ecuador Tariffs — Pragmatism Over Retaliation

In the most significant trade policy development of the week, President Petro announced on April 13 at an emergency cabinet meeting in the border city of Ipiales that Colombia will eliminate all tariffs on Ecuadorian imports — despite Ecuador maintaining a 100% levy on Colombian products. The decision breaks with the government’s initial retaliatory stance and represents a unilateral de-escalation that prioritises domestic consumer prices over bilateral reciprocity.

The Colombia-Ecuador trade war has escalated since Ecuador imposed tariffs on Colombian goods alongside a broader dispute involving border security, coca cultivation, and diplomatic tensions (Petro recalled Colombia’s ambassador from Quito on April 10). Petro framed the zero-tariff decision as protecting Colombian consumers: “We will not make Colombians pay more because of Ecuador’s decisions.” The move reduces an inflationary channel at a time when CPI is already running above target, and signals pragmatic crisis management in Petro’s final weeks before the transition.

For markets, the de-escalation is marginally positive — it removes a potential supply disruption for border-region goods and demonstrates that Petro is not pursuing maximalist confrontation on all fronts simultaneously. The Ecuador situation remains unresolved (Quito’s 100% tariffs persist until at least May 1), but the temperature has dropped.

04 Oil Eases — The Goldilocks Window

Brent pulled back from Monday’s $99.36 close toward $97 on Tuesday as Trump’s comment that Iran “would like to make a deal very badly” injected cautious optimism. WTI fell further in early Wednesday trade. The S&P 500 continued to rally, now within 1.3% of its all-time high, as investors increasingly view the Iran blockade as tactical pressure rather than permanent escalation.

For Colombia, the oil retreat opens a brief “Goldilocks window” — Brent is still high enough ($97) to support Ecopetrol earnings and fiscal revenues, but has pulled back enough from the $100+ spike to ease the inflationary narrative. This is the best of both worlds for the COLCAP: the oil windfall persists while the rate-hike fear subsides. The window closes if Brent either drops below $90 (hurting Ecopetrol) or spikes back above $105 (reigniting inflation fears). As covered in our downgrade risk analysis, the oil price is the hinge variable for Colombia’s entire macro equation.

05 Technical Analysis — COLCAP Daily

The chart shows three consecutive green candles stacking above the Ichimoku cloud — the strongest sustained advance since early February. Price at 2,359 is well above the cloud’s upper boundary near 2,304 and is approaching the 2,362 zone that marks the cluster of prior swing highs. The gap between price and the cloud is widening each session, confirming accelerating bullish momentum.

The MACD histogram expanded to 18.23 — its highest level of the entire April rally. The MACD line at 15.74 is well above the signal at 2.48, and the spread continues to widen. This is the sixth consecutive session of green histogram bars, the longest bullish streak since the January rally. The RSI reads 63.12 on the fast line and 53.40 on the slow — bullish and trending higher, with room before overbought at 70. The slow RSI catching up to the fast supports continuation.

The Bollinger Bands show price at 2,359 — riding above the upper band near 2,304. Band-riding in an uptrend is characteristic of strong momentum phases. The middle band at 2,280 and lower band at 2,143 define the pullback structure if the rally stalls. The 200-day MA at 2,031 slopes upward far below, confirming the secular bull trend.

06 Key Levels

07 News in Focus

Ecuador Trade War: Unilateral De-escalation

Petro’s zero-tariff decision is the most pragmatic move of his final months. While Ecuador maintains 100% tariffs on Colombian products (at least until May 1), Colombia will not retaliate. The reasoning is straightforward: retaliatory tariffs would raise domestic prices for Colombian consumers at the worst possible moment — with inflation at 5.3%, the BanRep rate at 11.25%, and the election 46 days away. The border security tensions persist (Petro recalled the ambassador from Quito, accused Ecuador of links to border mafias, and ordered increased naval monitoring), but the trade channel is being de-escalated. For the COLCAP, this removes one source of near-term negative surprise.

BanRep: Late-April Meeting Approaches

The next Banco de la República board meeting — scheduled for late April — is the most consequential institutional event before the election. The binary question: does Finance Minister Ávila attend? If yes, the BanRep crisis de-escalates and the market removes the institutional risk premium. If Ávila boycotts again, the central bank legally cannot meet, and sovereign risk reprices. Oil easing from $99 to $97 provides marginal breathing room but does not change the inflation trajectory at 11.25%. As covered in our central bank crisis report, the standoff has no modern precedent in Colombian politics.

Election: 46 Days — The Re-Rating Thesis Builds

The COLCAP’s three-session rally is being interpreted as institutional positioning for the May 31 election. At 7.9x forward P/E — LATAM’s cheapest market — the re-rating thesis is simple: a center-right victory (Valencia or De la Espriella) would trigger a 30–40% repricing as the market discounts fiscal rule restoration, BanRep normalization, and renewed exploration contracts. Cepeda at ~35% in polls maintains the risk premium, but the runoff dynamics (both center-right candidates defeat Cepeda in head-to-head scenarios) favour the market’s preferred outcome. The COLCAP is a political option — and the option is approaching expiry. As covered in our Colombia Economy 2026 guide, the election is the single variable that matters most.

Santa Marta Conference: 13 Days

The First Global Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels (April 28–29, Santa Marta) is now 13 days away. The irony deepens: Colombia’s budget depends on oil revenues that are surging precisely because of the geopolitical crisis, while the conference aims to phase out the industry generating those revenues. Any policy announcements affecting exploration or Ecopetrol’s mandate could move the energy sector and the COLCAP. The 220+ signatory coalition pushing to challenge investor-state dispute mechanisms adds a structural risk layer for energy investors.

08 Looking Ahead

Wednesday: The 2,370 test is imminent — Tuesday’s high of 2,367 came within 3 points. A clean close above 2,370 would be the most bullish technical signal since the 2,300 breakout, opening the path to 2,400.

Oil: Brent direction determines whether the Goldilocks window stays open. A pullback toward $90 would be unambiguously bullish for the broader macro picture. A spike back above $100 re-introduces inflation risk.

BanRep late-April meeting: The most important institutional event before the election. Ávila attendance = bullish; boycott = deeply negative.

Ecuador: Monitor whether Quito responds to Petro’s zero-tariff overture. Any reciprocal de-escalation before May 1 would further reduce border-region uncertainty.

This report was published by The Rio Times. For daily coverage of Latin American markets, read our Latin American Pulse and Brazil Morning Call.

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