Brazil Morning Call for Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Where We Left Off TUESDAY, APR 14 — SESSION CLOSE

Tuesday delivered the data the bulls were waiting for. March PPI came in dramatically cooler than feared: headline +0.5% MoM versus the +1.1% consensus, with the year-over-year rate at +4.0% versus +4.6% expected. Core PPI was even better — +0.1% MoM (vs +0.4%) and +3.8% YoY (vs +4.1%). The composition told the story: the goods sector surged 1.6% on energy (+8.5%, gasoline +15.7%), but services prices were completely flat. The oil shock hit producers at the wholesale level, but it did not spill into the broader service economy. This is the most significant piece of evidence yet that the war’s inflation impulse may be transitory — concentrated in energy, not embedded in core costs.

The market’s response was unequivocal. The S&P 500 surged 1.18% to 6,967.38 — now less than 1% from its all-time high of 7,002.28 set on January 28. The Nasdaq jumped 1.96% to 23,639 for its 10th consecutive winning session — the longest streak since 2021. Semiconductors hit all-time highs. Dow Transports broke through 21,000 for the first time. Oracle added 4.7% on top of Monday’s 12% surge. The war’s losses have been fully erased and then some. Goldman Sachs’ Cole and Marshall noted that only the U.S. Fed is still expected to cut rates this year among G10 economies — the ceasefire “leaves financial conditions looser” despite the blockade.

Bank earnings were mixed but didn’t slow the momentum. JPMorgan beat on Q1 results but cut its net interest income guidance — shares dipped marginally. Citigroup posted revenue +14% and net income +42%, beating estimates handily. Wells Fargo disappointed and fell 5%. The overall message: banks printed strong trading revenue from war-era volatility, but the outlook for traditional banking remains cautious. As covered in yesterday’s Morning Call, the market is looking through the war and pricing earnings strength. The S&P 500’s forward earnings estimate rose to $339.22 — the highest of the cycle.

Market Snapshot DATA AS OF TUE, APR 14 CLOSE

What to Watch WEDNESDAY CATALYSTS

Wednesday’s data calendar tests whether the consumer and production side confirm the PPI’s cooling narrative. Retail Sales at 08:30 ET (cons: +0.1%) will show whether the consumer is buckling under $4+ gas prices or holding up on strong employment. Empire State Manufacturing (cons: −5.0) captures New York factory sentiment under the blockade and tariff regime. Industrial Production at 09:15 (cons: +0.1%) shows whether factories maintained output despite the oil shock. The NAHB Housing Market Index (cons: 35) reflects builder confidence with mortgage rates above 6.5%.

Bank earnings continue with Bank of America and Morgan Stanley. BofA’s results will show the mass-market banking picture — consumer credit quality, loan demand, and the mortgage pipeline. Morgan Stanley will reveal whether the war-era trading bonanza extended across all bulge brackets. The Ibovespa teased 199,355 on Tuesday — the 200,000 psychological barrier is the obvious target, and a Wednesday push toward it would be the capstone to the most extraordinary run in the index’s modern history.

The ceasefire clock continues: 6 days to the April 21 expiration. Pakistan is attempting to arrange a second round of talks. The blockade is in its third day without military escalation. Vance described “a lot of progress” and left a deal on the table. The market is pricing a permanent de-escalation — the risk is that the ceasefire simply expires without renewal. Oil at $92 is the lowest since before the war’s second phase of escalation. If it holds below $95, the entire inflation narrative shifts structurally.

Ibovespa Setup TECHNICAL LEVELS

The Ibovespa posted its fifth consecutive ATH. Chart: O:198,001, H:199,355, L:198,001, C:198,657 (+0.33%). RSI at 73.22 (MA: 61.25) — the highest reading of the rally, deep in overbought territory. MACD histogram at 3,899 (MACD: 2,373.41, signal: 1,525.74). The index touched 199,355 intraday — just 645 points from the 200,000 psychological milestone. The 200-day SMA at 157,860 is now over 25% below the current price.

Resistance: 198,657 (Tuesday close / new ATH) → 199,355 (intraday ATH) → 200,000 (psychological — historic milestone if breached).

Support: 195,886 (mid-range) → 192,638 (upper SMA vicinity) → 192,284 (prior ATH cluster) → 189,741 (mid-Bollinger) → 187,197 / 187,197 (SMA cluster) → 186,721 (20-day) → 185,727 (lower range) → 173,793 (lower Bollinger) → 157,860 (200-day).

Economic Calendar WEDNESDAY, APR 15

Copom Watch SELIC AT 14.75% · NEXT MEETING: APR 28-29

The BRL breaking below R$5.00 is the most dovish development for the BCB since the war began. A sub-R$5.00 exchange rate compresses imported inflation, reduces the pass-through from any remaining oil premium, and signals massive capital inflows attracted by the 14.75% carry. Combined with Tuesday’s cool U.S. PPI (core at +0.1% vs +0.4% expected), the global inflation narrative is shifting from “structural” to “energy-concentrated.” Goldman’s economists noted that only the Fed is still expected to cut rates this year — but the PPI data now strengthens the cut case.

For the April 28 Copom meeting, the calculus has materially improved. BRL below R$5.00 + oil at $92 + core PPI flat + IPCA at 4.00% = a hold at 14.75% with dovish forward guidance is the base case. A cut at the April meeting remains unlikely — the ceasefire expires April 21 and the uncertainty premium demands patience. But the BCB can now credibly signal that June or August cuts are on the table, particularly if the ceasefire extends and oil stays below $95. The NFIB’s drop to 95.8 (11-month low) adds the global growth deceleration argument that supports eventual easing. The R$5.00 break is the BCB’s gift — it buys time while the carry trade does the tightening work.

Latin America Markets TUESDAY CLOSE / CHART DATA

Chile’s IPSA stole the regional spotlight, surging 1.83% to 11,336 with RSI jumping to 68.09 — approaching overbought territory for the first time in the ceasefire rally. The copper-heavy index is benefiting from the risk-on rotation and lower oil costs for the import-dependent economy. Colombia’s COLCAP continued its blockade-era rally to 2,359 (+0.52%) as higher oil prices support the economy’s petroleum exports. Mexico’s IPC fell 0.94% to 68,941, lagging the region as the peso-sensitive index faces headwinds from blockade uncertainty and tariff concerns. Argentina’s MERVAL dropped 1.38% to 2,950,635, falling well below the 3 million level as the CPI print (reported at +3.0% / +32.2% YoY) failed to inspire confidence in the disinflation narrative. The Ibovespa’s RSI at 73.22 now leads Chile’s 68.09 by over 5 points — both are in or approaching overbought territory, while the rest of LatAm remains neutral. As covered in the latest Ibovespa market report, the BRL’s break below R$5.00 is the most significant FX development in the region since the war began.

Commodities & FX KEY MOVES

Oil continued its dramatic decline, settling at ~$91.66 — down 7% from Monday and down over 20% from last week’s blockade-day spike to $105. The cool PPI + Vance’s deal optimism + the blockade targeting only Iranian ports (not full Strait closure) all contributed. WTI at $92 is now within striking distance of the pre-ceasefire levels that prevailed in mid-March. If second-round talks materialize and the ceasefire extends, $85-90 becomes the target. The IEA Monthly Report on Tuesday reinforced the supply concerns but also noted demand destruction at current prices.

USD/BRL broke the R$5.00 barrier — the most significant FX milestone for Brazil since mid-2022. Chart: O:4.9864, H:4.9864, L:4.9837, C:4.9837 (−0.05%). RSI at 39.43 (MA: 29.01) shows the pair in extreme oversold territory on the moving average, suggesting the move has been fast and deep. The MACD is bearish at −0.0219 (signal: −0.0381, MACD: −0.0600). The real has appreciated approximately 10% since the March war-era peak near R$5.43. The structural drivers are overwhelming: 14.75% carry (real rates among the highest in EM), commodity export revenues at record levels, global capital rotating into Brazil as the safest high-yield EM play, and the ceasefire-driven risk appetite. If the R$4.98 level holds, the next targets are R$4.90, then R$4.80.

Gold surged 3.1% to ~$4,849 — its best day in weeks — as the cool PPI data strengthened the rate-cut narrative and drove real yields lower. The dollar weakened, further supporting bullion. Bitcoin held near $74,018 (chart: O:74,183, H:74,818, L:73,915, C:74,018, −0.22%) with RSI at 60.54 (MA: 54.81) — healthy bullish momentum above $72K support.

Risk Map BULL vs BEAR

Positioning BOTTOM LINE