COLCAP Surges 1.98% to 2,347 as Iran Blockade Sends Oil Above $100

01 Market Snapshot

02 Equities — Oil Drives the Best Session in Months

The COLCAP Colombia today opens Tuesday after its strongest session in months. Monday’s +1.98% surge to 2,347.36 was driven almost entirely by the Brent spike after US-Iran peace talks collapsed and Trump ordered a naval blockade on Iranian ports. This is part of The Rio Times’ daily coverage of Colombia’s stock market and Latin American financial markets. For context, see our prior report: COLCAP Hits One-Month High at 2,301 as Court Strikes Down Petro Emergency.

The session structure was textbook bullish: the index opened at 2,301.78, tested lower to 2,286.70 in the first hour — shaking out weak hands — then rallied steadily for the remainder of the session to close at 2,347.36, just 15 centavos below the intraday high of 2,347.51. A close within 0.01% of the session high is the strongest possible technical signal: there was zero selling pressure into the close. This is the kind of candle that typically generates follow-through buying in the next session.

The +45.58 point gain was the largest single-session move since the March recovery rally. The COLCAP is now just 2.1% below the 2,370 resistance level that has been the ceiling since mid-March, and 8.4% below the January 28 all-time high of 2,562. The breakout above 2,300 (Friday) followed by the surge to 2,347 (Monday) is a textbook “breakout-and-acceleration” pattern.

03 The Iran Blockade — What It Means for Colombia

Twenty-one hours of negotiations in Pakistan produced nothing. The US accused Iran of refusing to curb nuclear ambitions; Iran demanded Strait of Hormuz control, war reparations, a broader regional ceasefire, and access to frozen overseas assets. Trump ordered a naval blockade on all Iranian ports effective Monday 10 a.m. ET. CENTCOM stated the blockade “will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports.” Trump threatened to destroy any Iranian military ship approaching the blockade zone.

Brent surged to $101.82 (+6.95%) on the news. An OPEC+ report revealed output fell 7.9 million bpd in March, largely due to the Hormuz shutdown — the largest supply disruption in global oil market history according to the IEA. Saudi Arabia said it restored East-West Pipeline capacity and Manifa field output, but the net effect is massive: global oil supply is structurally short, and the blockade escalation removes the near-term path to resolution.

For Colombia, this is unambiguously bullish for Ecopetrol and the fiscal position. Every dollar of Brent above the budget assumption generates windfall revenue. But it is also inflationary — reinforcing BanRep’s hawkish stance at 11.25% and eliminating any remaining hope for rate cuts in 2026. The market on Monday chose to trade the oil windfall over the inflation cost. Whether that calculus holds depends on how long Brent stays above $100.

04 S&P Downgrade: Ignored for Now

S&P downgraded Ecopetrol to BB- from BB on April 8, mirroring Colombia’s sovereign downgrade. The agency cited persistent fiscal imbalances and heavy dividend payouts — including COP 11.7 trillion in 2025 and a recent COP 1.6 trillion Fuel Price Stabilization Fund transfer. S&P maintained Ecopetrol’s standalone credit profile at bb+, emphasising the company’s ratings are capped by the sovereign due to 88.49% government ownership.

The downgrade is structurally negative for financing costs and bond spreads. But Monday’s session showed the market’s priorities: with Brent above $100, Ecopetrol’s earnings outlook overwhelms the credit deterioration. The company reports next on May 12. Ecopetrol’s proven reserves hit 300 mmboe — the highest in four years — with a 121% replacement ratio. At $100+ Brent, Vaca Muerta-like cash flow dynamics apply to Colombia’s conventional production base. As we covered in our downgrade risk analysis, the oil windfall provides a temporary buffer even as the structural fiscal picture deteriorates.

05 Technical Analysis — COLCAP Daily

Monday’s candle is the most bullish daily bar since the March recovery began. The index opened at 2,301.78, dipped briefly to 2,286.70, then rallied to close at 2,347.36 — essentially at the session high of 2,347.51. The open-near-low, close-at-high structure is a classic bullish marubozu, signalling persistent buying with zero late-session profit-taking. Price has decisively broken above the Ichimoku cloud and is now trading in clear air above the 2,302 resistance that capped the market for three weeks.

The MACD histogram expanded to 14.42, with the MACD line at 12.97 and signal at −1.45. The histogram has been positive and expanding for five consecutive sessions — the most sustained bullish momentum reading since mid-February. The RSI reads 61.78 on the fast line and 52.28 on the slow — firmly bullish but not overbought, leaving substantial room for continuation. The 200-day MA near 2,028 is far below, confirming the secular uptrend.

The Bollinger Bands show price at 2,347 — above the upper band at approximately 2,302 — a band-riding condition that often persists in strong trending moves. The middle band at 2,268 and lower band at 2,140 define the support structure if the rally fails.

06 Key Levels

07 News in Focus

Petro’s Spending Cut Ultimatum Stands

Petro’s April 10 warning of multibillion-dollar spending cuts remains in force. The healthcare sector faces a COP 4.8 trillion deficit. The government must reduce spending by 2.5% of GDP to close the fiscal gap left by the Court’s April 9 ruling. Yet $100+ Brent provides unexpected relief: every dollar above the budget assumption generates incremental revenue through Ecopetrol dividends and royalties. The irony is that the geopolitical crisis Petro philosophically opposes (fossil fuel dependency) is providing the fiscal oxygen his government desperately needs.

BanRep: Blockade Kills Any Remaining Dovish Hope

The Iran blockade and Brent above $100 eliminate the last remaining argument for BanRep rate cuts. With the policy rate at 11.25% after three consecutive 100bp hikes, inflation expectations at 6.4% for year-end, and oil now re-escalating inflationary pressure, the central bank has no room to ease. The next board meeting in late April will test whether Finance Minister Ávila attends — his boycott remains the single biggest institutional risk for Colombian markets. As covered in our central bank crisis report, the standoff has no modern precedent.

Election: 47 Days — Oil Reshapes the Narrative

The May 31 first-round vote approaches with Cepeda at ~35%, De la Espriella at ~21%, and Valencia rising. The oil spike complicates the election narrative: Petro’s government benefits from the fiscal windfall even as his anti-fossil-fuel ideology collides with the reality that oil revenues are keeping the state afloat. The Santa Marta fossil fuel conference (April 28–29) — now 14 days away — becomes even more awkward as Colombia’s budget depends on the industry the conference aims to phase out. For the COLCAP, the election remains the dominant variable: a center-right victory would trigger the 30–40% re-rating thesis at the current 7.9x P/E.

Protests Continue: 527 Municipalities

The rural protests against land revaluation and the Bogotá taxi driver disruptions from April 9 remain unresolved. Property tax increases of up to 300% continue to generate opposition in at least 527 municipalities. The social tensions underscore the political fragility of Petro’s final months — any escalation could affect business confidence and foreign investor sentiment ahead of the election.

08 Looking Ahead

Tuesday: The COLCAP enters the session at its highest level since mid-March. Follow-through above 2,347 targets the 2,370 resistance; a gap-up opening above 2,350 would confirm the momentum. Brent will set the tone — WTI fell 1.64% in Tuesday’s early trade as markets hope a deal can still materialise.

IEA report: The International Energy Agency’s monthly market report is due this week. Given the unprecedented supply disruption, the report will quantify the demand-supply imbalance and could move oil prices further.

BanRep board: The late-April meeting approaches. Whether Ávila attends is binary for markets — resolution is bullish, continued boycott is deeply negative for institutional credibility.

Santa Marta: 14 days to the fossil fuel conference. Any pre-conference policy announcements affecting the energy sector will move Ecopetrol and the COLCAP.

This report was published by The Rio Times. For daily coverage of Latin American markets, read our Latin American Pulse and Brazil Morning Call.

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