Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for October 24, 2025
Brazil’s financial markets open today amid cautious optimism from President Lula da Silva’s two-day state visit to Indonesia in Jakarta.
The trip advanced agreements on science, technology, energy, mineral resources, food safety, and statistics to diversify trade and secure long-term markets among Southeast Asia’s 680 million consumers, building on record 2024 Brazil-Indonesia trade of $6.3 billion with a $2.6 billion surplus.
A global chip shortage from China-Europe tensions over Nexperia seizure threatens Brazil’s auto industry, risking production halts, billions in losses, and impacts on 1.3 million jobs due to import reliance on semiconductors.
Central Bank President Gabriel Galípolo signals a sharp disinflation process with inflation at 5.17% easing toward the 3% target but maintains a restrictive 15% Selic rate for prolonged stability amid 5.8% unemployment.
The Casas Bahia-MercadoLibre alliance integrates high-value appliances and furniture on the platform starting November, boosting Casas Bahia shares +7% while rival Magazine Luiza falls nearly as much, reshaping retail ahead of Black Friday in MercadoLibre’s $11 billion Brazilian market.
Political positioning for 2026 Senate races sees Bolsonaro allies like Michelle and Eduardo eyeing 54 seats from house-arrest command center to influence reforms and judiciary.
Today’s agenda features Brazil’s Current Account and Foreign Direct Investment at 7:30 AM BRT, gauging external balances amid R$2.105 trillion year-to-date revenues; Mid-Month CPI MoM and YoY at 8:00 AM BRT, pivotal for Selic path with disinflation signals but above-target pressures.
Key global highlights include India’s Nikkei Manufacturing PMI at 1:00 AM BRT, offering cues on emerging-market demand. The UK’s Retail Sales YoY data will be released at 2:00 AM BRT, relevant for sterling and carry trades.
The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI follows at 3:57 AM BRT, providing insight into export dynamics. In the U.S., CPI YoY data at 8:30 AM BRT will gauge dollar strength, while the Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 AM BRT will signal commodity trends.
Finally, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 10:00 AM BRT will help assess overall risk appetite. These indicators matter as U.S. data test USD/BRL (~5.38) and B3 amid oil tailwinds from sanctions, while Eurozone PMIs guide the euro for steel and soy, and Indian PMIs signal emerging-market resilience.
Brazil’s CPI (consensus 0.25% MoM) anchors credibility amid Galípolo’s patience call and chip and auto risks, testing the market’s reception of the fiscal package and the impact of new retail alliances.
Economic Agenda for October 24, 2025
Brazil (10th Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$2.125 trillion)
- 7:30 AM BRT – Current Account (USD) (Sep)
Actual: TBD, Consensus: -7.50B, Previous: -4.67B
Implication: Wider deficit pressures real, impacting inflows amid oil shocks and trade pushes. - 7:30 AM BRT – Foreign direct investment (USD) (Sep)
Actual: TBD, Consensus: 6.50B, Previous: 7.99B
Implication: Steady FDI bolsters reserves, aiding currency stability in fiscal wait. - 8:00 AM BRT – Mid-Month CPI (MoM) (Oct)
Actual: TBD, Consensus: 0.25%, Previous: 0.48%
Implication: Softer print eases Selic pressures, supporting growth amid Galípolo signals. - 8:00 AM BRT – Mid-Month CPI (YoY) (Oct)
Actual: TBD, Consensus: 5.02%, Previous: 5.32%
Implication: Decline reinforces disinflation, curbing borrowing costs and boosting B3.
United States (Largest Economy, Nominal GDP: ~$30.50 trillion)
- 8:30 AM BRT – Core CPI (YoY) (Sep)
Actual: TBD, Consensus: 3.1%, Previous: 3.1%
Implication: Steady core tests Fed path, lifting dollar and real yields. - 8:30 AM BRT – CPI (YoY) (Sep)
Actual: TBD, Consensus: 3.1%, Previous: 2.9%
Implication: Uptick firms yields, testing carry trades. - 10:00 AM BRT – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct)
Actual: TBD, Consensus: 55.0, Previous: 55.1
Implication: Stronger sentiment firms USD/BRL.
Europe (Collective GDP of Key Economies: Germany, UK, France, etc.)
- 2:45 AM BRT – French Consumer Confidence (Oct)
Actual: 90, Consensus: 87, Previous: 88
Implication: Stronger boosts eurozone sentiment, curbing Brazil exports. - 3:00 AM BRT – Spanish Unemployment Rate (Q3)
Actual: 10.45%, Consensus: 10.20%, Previous: 10.29%
Implication: Rise tests euro exports. - 3:57 AM BRT – Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
Actual: TBD, Consensus: 49.8, Previous: 49.8
Implication: Expansion signals demand, supporting Petrobras.
United Kingdom (GBP)
- 2:00 AM BRT – Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep)
Actual: 1.5%, Consensus: 0.6%, Previous: 0.7%
Implication: Growth bolsters GBP, influencing flows. - 4:30 AM BRT – Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
Actual: TBD, Consensus: 46.6, Previous: 46.2
Implication: Steady contraction pressures steel for Vale. - 4:30 AM BRT – Services PMI (Oct)
Actual: TBD, Consensus: 51.0, Previous: 50.8
Implication: Resilience aids carry trades.
Canada (CAD)
- 8:30 AM BRT – New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Sep)
Actual: TBD, Consensus: 0.2%, Previous: -0.3%
Implication: Rebound supports CAD, aiding commodity ties.
Japan (JPY)
- 1:00 AM BRT – Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Aug)
Actual: -1.3%, Consensus: -0.7%, Previous: -1.8%
Implication: Improvement eases yen, lifting real. - 1:00 AM BRT – Leading Index (Aug)
Actual: 107.0, Consensus: 107.4, Previous: 106.1
Implication: Rise aids risk-off, pressuring Ibovespa.
India (INR)
- 1:00 AM BRT – Nikkei S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
Actual: 58.4, Consensus: TBD, Previous: 57.7
Implication: Expansion lifts EM sentiment, supporting B3. - 1:00 AM BRT – Nikkei Services PMI (Oct)
Actual: 58.8, Consensus: TBD, Previous: 60.9
Implication: Strength aids carry, impacting real. - 1:00 AM BRT – Manufacturing & Services PMI (Oct)
Actual: 59.90, Consensus: TBD, Previous: 61.00
Implication: Steady bolsters INR, influencing LatAm peers.
Singapore (SGD)
- 1:00 AM BRT – Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep)
Actual: 16.1%, Consensus: 0.5%, Previous: -9.0%
Implication: Surge lifts AUD, supporting Vale. - 1:00 AM BRT – Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)
Actual: 26.3%, Consensus: 8.6%, Previous: -11.0%
Implication: Rebound aids risk assets.
Why These Events Matter: Brazil’s CPI (8:00 AM BRT) shapes Selic amid Galípolo’s 5.17% inflation signals and fiscal package (>R$20B impact) reception.
U.S. CPI and sentiment (8:30–10:00 AM BRT) test dollar (~99), influencing USD/BRL (~5.38) and B3 amid oil shocks and Casas Bahia alliance.
Eurozone PMIs and data (2:45 AM–3:57 AM BRT) guide euro for steel/soy; UK sales/PMIs (2:00–4:30 AM BRT) affect sterling and carry; Indian PMIs (1:00 AM BRT) signal EM resilience. These gauge credibility, commodity flows, and geopolitical risks, impacting outflows and institutional trust amid Lula’s ASEAN push and chip shortage threats.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
Brazil’s Ibovespa rose 0.59% to 145,720.98 on October 23, 2025, helped by Petrobras after a fresh spike in crude tied to new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil majors, demonstrating market leverage to global commodities amid fiscal credibility tests.
Trading volume hit R$19.4 billion ($3.66 billion), with energy gaining as oil firmness propelled Petrobras, overpowering retail pullbacks. Dollar closed at R$5.3861.
Top gainers: Azzas 2154 (AZZA3) +5.55%; Braskem (BRKM5) +5.50%; WEG (WEGE3) +3.55% on R$1.65 billion Q3 profit; Cosan (CSAN3) +3.53%; Assaí (ASAI3) +3.18%.
Decliners: Magazine Luiza (MGLU3) -5.64% post-Casas Bahia–MercadoLibre tie-up; Marfrig (MRBF3) -2.86%; Fleury (FLRY3) -1.73%; Motiva (MOTV3) -1.18%; Caixa Seguridade (CXSE3) -1.08%.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. markets closed higher on October 23, 2025, nearing records. Dow added 0.3% to 46,734.61; S&P 500 +0.6% to 6,738.44; Nasdaq +0.9% to 22,941.80; Russell 2000 +1.3% to 2,482.66.
Energy led on oil rebound from U.S. sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil, lifting majors. Industrials firmed; defensives mixed. WTI $61.79 (+5.6%), Brent $65.99 (+5.4%); gold ~$4,120–$4,140. 10-year yield ~4.00%; Dollar Index ~98.9–99.0; VIX 17.30.
Earnings mixed but tape held; sentiment aided by Trump–Xi meet confirmation amid shutdown delays.
Mexico’s Market Yesterday
Mexico’s S&P/BMV IPC gained 0.33% to 61,512 on October 23, 2025, in cautious rally with turnover in heavyweights like Walmex and América Móvil.
Peso near 18.40 (range 18.35–18.45); mid-October inflation eased, giving Banxico rate-trim room. Winners: Becle +?, GCC +?, Gentera +?; losers: Liverpool -?, Axtel -?.
Argentina’s Market Yesterday
Argentina’s S&P Merval rose modestly on October 23, 2025, with firm ADRs; peso official-blue gap tight at few points pre-vote. Banks/energy led; winners: Grupo Supervielle +9.6%, YPF +4.8%; laggards: Aluar -4.6%, Ternium -3.5%.
Colombia’s Market Yesterday
Colombia’s MSCI Colcap rose to ~1,925 on October 23, 2025, near decade-highs; peso ~3,883 (range 3,856–3,918). Oil tailwinds aided energy/utilities; inflation 5.18% pauses disinflation.
Chile’s Market Yesterday
Chile’s S&P IPSA rose 1.1% to ~9,150 on October 23, 2025, on copper above $5/lb; peso mid-940s. Winners: SQM-B +4.12%, CAP +2.31%; losers: Ripley -1.15%, Mallplaza -0.74%.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The real steadied near R$5.38 on October 23, 2025, trading 5.38–5.39 and closing at 5.3861 (-0.20%), supported by oil sanctions boosting terms of trade and high carry amid R$2.105 trillion YTD revenues; support 5.35, resistance 5.40–5.42.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rebounded +2.3% to ~$111,200 on October 23, 2025, after $108 million ETF inflows; support $109.5k/$108k, resistance $114k–$115k. Ethereum ~$3,975 (+3.6%); Solana ~$193 (+5.0%) on ETF nod; institutional hedging boosts liquidity.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Oil firmness from sanctions and fiscal delays cap inflows despite Lula’s ASEAN trade reset potential and auto chip risks; retail M&A like Casas Bahia alliance signals selective discipline.
Energy/materials vary with Copel asset sales, Raizen losses, Alcoa profits; rare-earth push eyes hub status. Russian grocer Vantajoso tests ultra-discount in retail; São Paulo office vacancy 12.8% drives rents amid return-to-office.
Key Developments
Lula-ASEAN Push: Jakarta visit advances energy/food/aviation deals for $6.3B record trade; Kuala Lumpur summit eyes tariff relief, regulatory ties for exports.
Chip Shortage Threat: China-Europe tensions halt Nexperia supplies, risking Brazil auto halts, 1.3M jobs, billions lost; echoes pandemic, prompts emergency talks.
Central Bank Signals: Galípolo notes 5.17% inflation falling but Selic 15% restrictive long-term for stability amid 5.8% unemployment.
Retail Alliance: Casas Bahia-MercadoLibre tie-up hosts appliances on platform for Black Friday; shares +7%, rivals -7%; boosts $11B market reach.
Senate 2026 Gamble: Bolsonaro home command eyes 54 seats via Michelle/Eduardo; shapes reforms, judiciary amid rival bids.
Copel Q3: Sold Baixo Iguacu stake R$1.683B; post-privatization EBITDA guide R$6.2B 2026, net income R$2.6B.
Raizen Q3: Net loss R$2.57B, debt R$38.59B (3x leverage); sugar up but climate/financial hits; eyes Argentina divest.
Alcoa Q3: Net $232M (+3x YoY), revenue $2.9B; aluminum up 5%, acquired Alumina Ltd $2.2B; Brazil renewable ops.
Russian Grocer Entry: Svetofor as Vantajoso opens São Paulo, 50 stores planned; ultra-discount tests low-price limits vs. rivals.
São Paulo Office Crunch: Vacancy 12.8% low, rents >R$285/m² in Faria Lima; demand from 68% return-to-office, limited new supply.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+8.72%
208,865.27
+8.72%
64,531.68
+1.10%
11,072.62
+1.43%
2,882,805
+4.16%
2,576.14
+2.43%
59,860.04
+0.55%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 208,865.27 | +8.72% | +21.85% | 192,114.55 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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