Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for May 14, 2025
Brazil’s markets face a pivotal day as domestic and global economic indicators offer critical insights into service sector performance, consumer sentiment, and global inflationary trends.
These factors are shaping monetary policy expectations and investor confidence in an export-driven economy navigating a fragile U.S.-China trade truce and persistent domestic inflationary pressures.
At 08:00 AM (BRT), Brazil’s Service Sector Growth for March — both Month-over-Month (previous: 0.8%) and Year-over-Year (previous: 4.2%) — will be released.
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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
+0.68%
205,694.01
+0.68%
64,653.33
-1.01%
10,963.90
-0.32%
2,860,413
+1.29%
2,538.78
+0.15%
60,766.81
-1.71%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 205,694.01 | +0.68% | +21.85% | 204,302.33 | 168,310 | 167,142 | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.95 | +1.01% | -5.83% | 5.89 | 5.98 | 5.94 | — |
| SELIC | 14.00% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| PETR4 | 41.64 | -0.05% | +35.19% | 41.66 | 41.97 | 41.15 | 41,499,400 |
| VALE3 | 72.97 | +0.83% | +30.75% | 72.37 | 73.54 | 72.66 | 17,658,000 |
| SUZB3 | 41.33 | +2.35% | -23.55% | 40.38 | 41.48 | 40.35 | 3,914,900 |
| KLABIN | 17.69 | +0.80% | -2.95% | 17.55 | 17.74 | 17.48 | 2,057,400 |
| SLCE3 | 13.34 | +0.30% | -12.25% | 13.30 | 13.42 | 13.20 | 1,454,200 |
| ABEV3 | 14.89 | -0.80% | +21.91% | 15.01 | 15.07 | 14.81 | 16,453,100 |
| ITUB4 | 38.60 | -1.03% | +4.57% | 39.00 | 39.34 | 38.39 | 29,487,800 |
| BBDC4 | 16.85 | +0.36% | +3.50% | 16.79 | 16.90 | 16.67 | 19,416,900 |
| BBAS3 | 19.37 | +0.47% | +0.73% | 19.28 | 19.44 | 19.16 | 11,069,200 |
| B3SA3 | 14.26 | -0.21% | +12.73% | 14.29 | 14.47 | 14.11 | 33,037,800 |
| WEGE3 | 47.59 | +0.49% | +29.99% | 47.36 | 48.08 | 47.36 | 3,364,600 |
| PRIO3 | 59.14 | -0.19% | +50.67% | 59.25 | 59.81 | 58.74 | 3,325,600 |
| RENT3 | 34.68 | -0.09% | +0.84% | 34.71 | 34.96 | 34.35 | 7,979,100 |
| AZZA3 | 15.89 | -2.63% | -53.76% | 16.32 | 16.42 | 15.82 | 1,330,300 |
| CSNA3 | 4.30 | +0.47% | -42.65% | 4.28 | 4.41 | 4.26 | 10,076,100 |
| GGBR4 | 24.69 | +2.19% | +51.38% | 24.16 | 24.85 | 24.18 | 7,047,600 |
| ENEV3 | 24.21 | -1.38% | +70.49% | 24.55 | 24.64 | 23.99 | 9,297,000 |
| LREN3 | 11.87 | -1.33% | -28.65% | 12.03 | 12.17 | 11.83 | 9,683,300 |
These figures will gauge the health of a key economic driver and influence investor sentiment amid high interest rates. Strong growth could signal resilience, boosting equities, while weaker readings may raise concerns about economic momentum.
At 11:00 AM (BRT), the Thomson Reuters IPSOS Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) (previous: 51.28) will reflect consumer confidence, impacting domestic demand and retail sector outlooks.
Globally, at 02:30 AM (BRT), India’s WPI Inflation (YoY) for April (consensus: 1.76%, previous: 2.05%) will signal wholesale price pressures in a major emerging market, affecting global risk appetite and demand for Brazilian assets.
A softer reading could bolster capital flows to Brazil, while persistent inflation may dampen sentiment. In the Eurozone, at 02:00 AM (BRT), German CPI (YoY) (consensus: 2.1%, previous: 2.1%) and (MoM) (consensus: 0.4%, previous: 0.3%) will provide insights into inflationary trends in a key market for Brazilian exports, influencing commodity demand.
At 03:00 AM (BRT), the Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (consensus: 2.4%, previous: 2.0%) and Spanish CPI (YoY) (consensus: 2.2%, previous: 2.2%) will further shape global risk sentiment.
In the United States, at 10:30 AM (BRT), Crude Oil Inventories (previous: -2.032M) will signal demand trends, impacting Petrobras and Brazil’s oil export revenues. These releases are crucial for framing Brazil’s economic outlook, trade performance, and monetary policy stance amid global trade dynamics and domestic tightening.
Economic Agenda for May 14, 2025
Brazil
- 08:00 AM – Service Sector Growth (MoM) (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 0.8%. Measures monthly service sector activity, a key economic driver, influencing investor sentiment and monetary policy outlooks.
- 08:00 AM – Service Sector Growth (YoY) (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 4.2%. Tracks annual service sector performance, impacting equities and domestic demand expectations.
- 11:00 AM – Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (May): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 51.28. Gauges consumer confidence, affecting retail and domestic consumption trends.
India
- 02:30 AM (BRT) – WPI Inflation (YoY) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 1.76%, previous 2.05%. Signals wholesale price pressures, influencing global risk appetite and Brazilian asset demand.
- 07:30 AM (BRT) – M3 Money Supply: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 9.6%. Tracks money supply growth, impacting inflationary expectations in a key emerging market.
Eurozone
- 02:00 AM (BRT) – German CPI (YoY) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 2.1%, previous 2.1%. Measures annual inflation, influencing Eurozone monetary policy and Brazilian export demand.
- 02:00 AM (BRT) – German CPI (MoM) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 0.4%, previous 0.3%. Tracks monthly inflation, impacting global risk sentiment.
- 03:00 AM (BRT) – Core CPI (YoY) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 2.4%, previous 2.0%. Gauges core inflation, affecting ECB policy expectations and Brazilian assets.
- 03:00 AM (BRT) – Spanish CPI (YoY) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 2.2%, previous 2.2%. Signals inflation in a major Eurozone economy, influencing export markets.
- 04:15 AM (BRT) – German Buba President Nagel Speaks: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Provides ECB policy insights, affecting global markets.
- 05:30 AM (BRT) – German 30-Year Bund Auction: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 2.830%. Reflects long-term borrowing costs, influencing Eurozone sentiment.
- 12:00 PM (BRT) – German Buba Balz Speaks: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Further clarifies ECB policy stance, impacting markets.
United States
- 07:00 AM (BRT) – MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 6.84%. Tracks mortgage rates, influencing U.S. housing demand and economic sentiment.
- 07:00 AM (BRT) – MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 11.0%. Measures mortgage application trends, impacting U.S. economic outlooks.
- 05:15 AM (BRT) – Fed Waller Speaks: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Provides Fed policy insights, influencing global capital flows.
- 09:10 AM (BRT) – Fed Governor Jefferson Speaks: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Shapes Fed rate expectations, impacting the Brazilian real.
- 10:30 AM (BRT) – Crude Oil Inventories: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous -2.032M. Signals oil demand trends, impacting Petrobras and Brazil’s oil exports.
- 17:40 PM (BRT) – FOMC Member Daly Speaks: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Clarifies Fed policy stance, affecting global risk appetite.
China
- 05:00 AM (BRT) – M2 Money Stock (YoY) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 7.3%, previous 7.0%. Tracks money supply growth, influencing commodity demand.
- 05:00 AM (BRT) – New Loans (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 700.0B, previous 3,640.0B. Measures lending activity, impacting Chinese demand for Brazilian exports.
Canada
- 08:30 AM (BRT) – Building Permits (MoM) (Mar): Actual TBD, consensus 1.0%, previous 2.9%. Gauges construction activity, influencing commodity demand.
- 11:00 AM (BRT) – Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (MoM) (May): Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 45.35. Reflects consumer sentiment, affecting trade sentiment.
United Kingdom
- 03:15 AM (BRT) – BoE Breeden Speaks: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous TBD. Provides monetary policy insights, influencing global markets.
- 05:00 AM (BRT) – 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction: Actual TBD, consensus TBD, previous 4.638%. Reflects borrowing costs, impacting UK market sentiment.
South Korea
- 19:55 PM (BRT) – Exports (YoY) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 3.7%, previous 3.7%. Measures export growth, influencing Asian commodity demand.
- 19:55 PM (BRT) – Imports (YoY) (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus -2.7%, previous -2.7%. Tracks import trends, impacting global trade sentiment.
Australia
- 21:30 PM (BRT) – Employment Change (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 20.9K, previous 32.2K. Gauges labor market health, influencing commodity demand.
- 21:30 PM (BRT) – Unemployment Rate (Apr): Actual TBD, consensus 4.1%, previous 4.1%. Signals labor market conditions, affecting global risk appetite.
Brazil’s Markets Yesterday
Brazil’s Ibovespa surged 1.76% to an all-time high of 138,963.11 on Tuesday, May 13, 2025, marking its fourth consecutive session of gains, driven by optimism from a U.S.-China trade truce slashing tariffs to 30% and 10%, respectively, for 90 days.
Rising stocks outnumbered decliners 568 to 389, with trading volume reaching R$16.7 billion, reflecting robust investor enthusiasm.
The index’s breakout above the 137,000 resistance zone, supported by bullish moving averages and an RSI of 57.414, signals strong momentum without overbought conditions.
Exporters like Petrobras and Vale led gains, while domestic financials faced pressure from high interest rates.
U.S. Markets Yesterday
U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, May 13, 2025, after a report showed inflation unexpectedly slowed, boosting hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The S&P 500 climbed 0.7% (42.36 points) to 5,886.55, erasing its year-to-date loss. The Nasdaq composite rallied 1.6% (301.74 points) to 19,010.08, led by AI and tech stocks, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6% (269.67 points) to 42,140.43.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies gained 0.5% (10.15 points) to 2,102.35. Analysts cautioned that inflation could rise again due to tariff risks.
Commodities
Brazilian Real
The Brazilian real maintained its strength against the dollar on Tuesday, May 13, 2025, supported by the Central Bank’s tight monetary policy and optimism from the U.S.-China trade truce.
This resilience aids import costs but pressures exporters. Today’s Service Sector Growth and Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI will guide currency outlooks.
Oil Prices
Brent and WTI crude oil prices slipped below key resistance levels on Tuesday, May 13, 2025, amid bearish U.S. inventory data signaling weaker demand, pressuring Petrobras and Brazil’s oil export revenues. Today’s U.S. Crude Oil Inventories will provide further demand signals, influencing price outlooks.
Gold Prices
Gold prices retreated on Tuesday, May 13, 2025, as easing U.S.-China trade tensions reduced safe-haven demand, though technical support held firm, providing stability for Brazil’s mining sector. Today’s German CPI and U.S. Crude Oil Inventories may sway investor sentiment.
Silver Prices
Silver prices pulled back on Tuesday, May 13, 2025, after a prior rally, as trade deal fatigue offset industrial demand, tempering gains for Brazil’s mining exports in electronics and solar applications. Today’s India WPI Inflation and Eurozone Core CPI will guide demand trends.
Copper Prices
Copper prices stabilized on Tuesday, May 13, 2025, after a trade deal-driven rally, with mixed technical signals reflecting cautious optimism for Vale and Brazil’s commodity exports. Today’s German CPI and China’s M2 Money Stock will clarify demand outlooks.
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin held above $103,000 on Tuesday, May 13, 2025, while Ethereum surged 9% amid institutional activity, supporting Brazil’s fintech sector, particularly Inter & Co. Today’s U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications and Fed speeches may influence risk appetite and crypto sentiment.
Iron Ore Prices
Iron ore prices broke above $100 per ton on Tuesday, May 13, 2025, driven by China’s monetary stimulus, supporting Vale’s revenues despite lingering demand concerns. Today’s China New Loans and India WPI Inflation will guide commodity demand trends.
Companies and Market
Industry Outlook
Brazil’s industrial sector faces mixed dynamics in Q1 2025, with exporters like Petrobras and Vale benefiting from a U.S.-China trade truce and rising commodity prices, though domestic inflationary pressures ease slightly due to the tariff ceasefire.
However, the steel industry struggles as China’s redirected exports, accounting for 70% of Brazil’s steel imports, undercut local mills. Inflation outlooks have improved marginally, but persistent pressures and high interest rates challenge domestic financials and growth.
Today’s Service Sector Growth and global inflation data will shape monetary policy and industrial outlooks.
Company Updates
Petrobras’ Profit Surge: Petrobras reported a 49% profit jump in Q1 2025, beating forecasts, and approved a $2 billion dividend payout, bolstering energy sector optimism.
Centauro’s Earnings Lift: Centauro drove Grupo SBF’s Q1 2025 earnings growth, despite Fisia’s drag and a Nike wholesale slump, signaling resilience in Brazil’s retail sector.
Sabesp’s Profit Surge: Sabesp posted an 80% profit increase in Q1 2025, surpassing estimates, and launched a share buyback program, strengthening the sanitation sector.
Brava Energia’s Profit: Brava Energia recorded a R$145.5 million profit in Q1 2025, driven by offshore expansion, reinforcing its energy sector outlook.
Hapvida, IRB, Natura Updates: Hapvida’s Q1 2025 profit dropped, IRB’s income jumped 50%, and Natura reduced losses, reflecting Brazil’s sectoral fragmentation.
Itaúsa’s Profit Growth: Itaúsa, Latin America’s largest holding, posted 8% profit growth in Q1 2025, powered by banking and sanitation, signaling sector strength.
Telefônica Brasil’s Earnings: Postpaid and fiber services drove an 18.1% earnings increase for Telefônica Brasil in Q1 2025, highlighting telecom resilience.
Yduqs’ Profit Decline: Yduqs absorbed an 11% profit decline in Q1 2025 but bets on hybrid courses to meet 2030 targets, reflecting education sector challenges.
Direcional’s Profit Beat: Direcional exceeded profit estimates in Q1 2025, driven by affordable housing, though mid-market headwinds persist, signaling real estate resilience.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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