Senate Delays Security Bill Past Runoff
BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Monday, 19 October, 3:06 p.m. ET · Source: Estadão, Broadcast Político
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Monday 19 October, Senate President Davi Alcolumbre signalled that he tends not to put the public security amendment to a vote before the runoff.
- Why Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT) is split over amendments that would lower the age of criminal responsibility.
- What is at stake The amendment, PEC 18/2025, would widen federal powers over public security, a top campaign theme.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.8% chance of winning the runoff and Lula 23.5% (19 October, 3:04 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 78% (Lula: 24% and 21%), as of 19 October, 3:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open Alcolumbre was still discussing the decision with senators on Monday, so no formal announcement had been made.
Runoff · Sunday, 25 October
Brazil Runoff 2026: Lula vs Flávio
Date, polls, debates, odds and how the runoff works, updated every day.
Brazil election 2026 · Brazil election polls · Brazil election odds · Brazil runoff date and results start · Brazil election results · All election stories
Brazil’s Senate is likely to push its vote on a flagship public security bill until after the Brazil election 2026, Senate President Davi Alcolumbre signalled on Monday 19 October. Sources told Estadão’s Broadcast Político that he met senators and tends not to schedule the proposal before the 25 October runoff.
The delay matters because public security is one of the sharpest themes of the campaign between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, and Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro. For readers in the United States, it shows how a fight over crime policy is shaping Brazil’s political calendar a week before the vote.
What Alcolumbre Signalled on Monday
The government’s allies in the Senate were told there would be no voting session on the amendment this week, because Alcolumbre prefers to take it up after the election period, Estadão reported. He was still debating with senators from the morning whether any session would be held at all.
The decision therefore remains open until the Senate announces its agenda. Estadão said Alcolumbre had not yet made a final call.
Why Criminal Age Split the Government
The amendment, known as PEC 18/2025, was drafted by Lula’s government to widen federal powers over public security, which now sits mainly with state governors, Estadão reported. The Chamber of Deputies approved it in March 2026, and the Senate’s constitutional committee finished its vote on Wednesday 14 October, Congresso em Foco reported.
Senator Rogério Marinho of Flávio Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) filed an amendment to lower the age of criminal responsibility, now 18, to 16, with 14 for some grave crimes. PT Senate leader Camilo Santana countered with a narrower version for heinous crimes only, while Teresa Leítão, the government’s leader in the Senate, is against lowering the age, Estadão said.
Lula said in a TV Globo interview on Thursday 15 October that he favours 16 for heinous crimes, but not inside this amendment, Correio da Manhã reported. Camilo’s wing argues that rejecting a cut now could cost Lula votes, Estadão said.
The Earlier Withdrawal on 15 October
Alcolumbre had already pulled the proposal from the Senate agenda on Thursday 15 October, after the government base failed to agree on the amendments, Correio da Manhã reported. He said he would await an understanding among senators.
Any change to the text approved by the Chamber must go back to the Chamber of Deputies for a new vote, according to Congresso em Foco.
What It Means for US Readers
A stalled security bill keeps crime policy at the centre of a campaign that investors and Washington follow closely. Our Brazil election polls tracker shows how tight the race is.
Markets price a Flávio Bolsonaro win more likely than not, per the Brazil election odds page. Prediction markets are bets, not polls, and they can move fast on new surveys.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, traders give Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.8% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 23.5% (19 October, 3:04 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has about US$188.2 million in total trading volume.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.8% · Lula 23.5% (US$188 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 78% · Lula 21%
As of 19 October, 3:20 pm ET (20:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
It is not confirmed whether Alcolumbre will formally announce a postponement or call a session before 25 October. The outcome of the amendments on criminal age is also open.
No poll or source we reviewed shows whether the delay will move any voters. The dispute may change after the runoff, whoever wins.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did the Brazilian Senate delay the security amendment?
Senate President Davi Alcolumbre signalled on Monday 19 October that he tends not to schedule it before the 25 October runoff. Lula’s allies are split over amendments that would lower the age of criminal responsibility.
What is the PEC da Segurança Pública?
It is a proposed constitutional amendment, known as PEC 18/2025, drafted by President Lula’s government to widen federal powers over public security. The Chamber of Deputies approved it in March 2026.
What happens if the Senate changes the text?
Any changed passages must go back to the Chamber of Deputies for another vote. That extra step is why amendments on criminal age threaten the schedule.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October. The two candidates are President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
Is the delay final?
No. Estadão reported that Alcolumbre was still discussing the decision with senators on Monday, and Senate leaders could still call a session.
Sources: Estadão (Broadcast Político), 19 October 2026; Correio da Manhã, 15 October 2026; Congresso em Foco, 14 October 2026.
This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief