Brazil Judge Suspends Lula Ad 15 Days Before Runoff

BRAZIL · POLITICS

Brazil’s top electoral judge has pulled a Lula attack ad, two weeks before a runoff watched closely on Wall Street.

Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court suspended a Lula campaign ad on Saturday, 10 October, ruling that it could mislead voters about his rivals. The order came 15 days before the 25 October presidential runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.

The race matters to US investors in Brazilian stocks and to Washington’s trade ties with Latin America’s largest economy. Court fights over attack ads have become routine.

What the Electoral Court Ordered

Justice Kassio Nunes Marques, the court’s president, issued a provisional injunction suspending the ad, Poder360 reported late on Saturday. Revista Fórum said the order answered a request from Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign.

The ad targeted Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, and his running mate, Alfredo Gaspar. Both belong to the Liberal Party (PL), the main conservative party.

Revista Fórum said the ad ran in the free, publicly funded campaign airtime. The electoral court says that airtime resumed on Friday, 9 October.

Lula leads the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT). Jair Bolsonaro appointed Nunes Marques to the Supreme Court in 2020.

Why the Judge Called the Lula Campaign Ad Misleading

Poder360 said the ad contrasted Lula’s ticket, the “duo of experience,” with a “duo of scandals.” It showed a headline about funding for Dark Horse, a film about Jair Bolsonaro, while the audio mentioned money laundering.

The judge said that combination could lead voters to believe an accusation had been proven, Poder360 reported. The film’s financing has been linked in press reports to Daniel Vorcaro, the banker who controlled the failed lender Banco Master.

On Gaspar, the ad cited an allegation involving the sexual abuse of a minor. It did not mention that Supreme Court Justice Gilmar Mendes shelved the request to investigate him on 6 October, Revista Fórum reported.

Showing an old headline “as if it were current” without the shelving could suggest an open inquiry, the judge wrote, Poder360 said. Revista Fórum said he cited an electoral-law ban on slander and defamation in campaign material.

A Campaign Fought in Court

Saturday’s order was not the first against the Lula campaign. On 22 September, Nunes Marques suspended a Lula radio jingle that tied Flávio Bolsonaro to several scandals, Diário do Grande ABC reported.

The court has also ruled against the conservative side. On Saturday, Justice Marco Aurélio Bellizze ordered Gaspar to delete an Instagram video, Poder360 reported.

In that video, Gaspar accused Lula of seeking 1 billion reais (about US$200 million, at 5.01 reais per US$) in bribes. Lula denies it, and the judge found too little evidence.

What It Means for You

For US investors, the ruling does not change the shape of the race. Brazilian stocks and depositary receipts in New York already trade on runoff expectations.

Brazilian courts routinely pull attack ads from both camps. A single injunction is not a sign of instability.

For Washington, the winner will shape relations after the Trump administration’s tariff clashes with Brazil. Americans in Brazil should expect rallies until the vote.

What Prediction Markets Say

On Kalshi, a US exchange regulated by the CFTC, bets gave Flávio Bolsonaro 87% and Lula 13% (11 October, 11:07 a.m. ET). On Polymarket, about US$180 million has been traded, with Flávio at 88% at 12:20 p.m. ET.

Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What Is Not Known

The electoral court had not published the decision or a press note on it by Sunday afternoon. The case number, any fine and whether the ad also ran online are not known.

It is not known whether Lula’s campaign will appeal. It had not commented publicly in the reports reviewed.

What Comes Next

The injunction is provisional, so the full court can still review it.

The order does not end any police inquiry into the Dark Horse funding, Revista Fórum noted. Brazilians vote in the runoff on Sunday, 25 October.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did Brazil’s electoral court order?

Justice Nunes Marques suspended a Lula campaign ad on Saturday, 10 October, in a provisional decision. The ad targeted Flávio Bolsonaro and his running mate, Alfredo Gaspar.

Why was the Lula campaign ad suspended?

The judge found it could mislead voters into thinking accusations were proven. He also faulted it for omitting that a case against Gaspar had been shelved.

Who is Nunes Marques?

Kassio Nunes Marques is a Supreme Court justice appointed in 2020 by former president Jair Bolsonaro. He has presided over the Superior Electoral Court since May 2026.

When is Brazil’s presidential runoff?

The runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro takes place on Sunday, 25 October 2026. Free campaign airtime on TV and radio resumed on Friday, 9 October.

Sources: Superior Electoral Court (TSE), 10 October; TSE, campaign airtime; Poder360; Revista Fórum; Poder360, Gaspar video; Diário do Grande ABC (all accessed 11 October 2026).