Ten Brazilian states must define their governor in the first round

With only three days to go until the first round of the general elections, the map of the dispute for state governments is still undefined in most of the country.

But in at least ten states, the polls point to an outcome already on Sunday, with the front runners adding up to at least 50% of the electorate’s preference, according to polls conducted by Ipec in the last week of the campaign.

The Northern Region concentrates most of the favorites, with four states – Acre, Amapá, Pará, and Roraima – heading towards a definition in the first round.

That’s where the vote champion of this election should come from, according to Ipec.

The governor of Pará, Helder Barbalho (Brazilian Democratic Movement – MDB), who is seeking reelection, has 72% voting intentions, the highest percentage in the country so far.

In the Midwest, the dispute for state government tends to be defined on Sunday in Goiás and Mato Grosso. Espírito Santo (Southeast), Rio Grande do Norte and Bahia (Northeast), and Paraná (South) complete the list of possible first-round victories.

In common, the vast majority of the favorites either seek reelection or have the support of the current governor. The only exception is Bahia.

In Pará, the largest electoral college in the Northern Region, Helder Barbalho reaps the fruits of the broadest alliance assembled in these elections.

To remain for another four years at the head of the Lauro Sodré Palace, Barbalho has the formal support of 16 parties – including the Workers’ Party (PT), Progressive Party (PP), and Republicans – covering practically the entire political spectrum.

Also contributing to the governor’s good performance is the stance he adopted in the dispute for the Presidency of the Republic.

Despite supporting the election of former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), he also opened the platform for his party’s candidate, Senator Simone Tebet (Mato Grosso do Sul).

In Acre and Roraima, the governors also emerge as favorites to win in the first round. Gladson Camelli has 54% of the voting intentions of the people of Acre.

His main opponent is the former governor Jorge Viana (PT), with 25%, who is trying to pull away in this final stage of the campaign to reach the second round.

In Roraima, Antônio Denarium (PP), with 50%, faces pressure from Teresa Surita (MDB), who has 7% voting intentions.

In Amapá, also with 50% of the preference according to Ipec, the former mayor of Macapá, Clécio Luís (Solidariedade), who counts with the support of the governor, Waldez Góis (Democratic Labour Party – PDT), and senator David Alcolumbre (União Brasil), emerges.

A left-wing candidate, Clécio has already run with the PT, the Socialism and Liberty Party (PSOL), and the Rede before joining Solidariedade earlier this year.

In the Midwest, two União Brasil governors linked to agribusiness lead the respective contests with a clear advantage over their opponents: Mauro Mendes, from Mato Grosso, and Ronaldo Caiado, from Goiás, have 60% and 55% of voting intention, respectively.

Both supported the election of Jair Bolsonaro in 2018 but now keep their distance from the presidential campaign to avoid being contaminated by the president’s high rejection rate.

In the Southeast, polls show a wide favorability for the reelection of the governor of Espírito Santo, Renato Casagrande (Brazilian Socialist Party – PSB), with 53% of voting intentions, well ahead of his main opponent, Manato (Liberal Party – PL) – supported by Bolsonaro – who has 18%.

Casagrande, a supporter of Lula da Silva, also has a great range of parties in his coalition: ten legions are part of his platform, including PT, PSDB (Brazilian Social Democracy Party), and PP.

The strategy proved efficient in a state that gave Bolsonaro, in 2018, the highest proportional vote in the Southeast: 63% in the second round, against 37% for Fernando Haddad (PT).

In the South, the vote champion indicated by the polls should be the governor of Paraná, Ratinho Jr (PSD), who has 55% of voters’ preference to remain at the head of the local government. Former governor Roberto Requião (PT), with 28%, is fighting to decide the second round, supported by Lula’s support in the state that hosted Operation Lava-Jato.

MARGIN OF ERROR

In absolute numbers, the Northeast region is the only one in which none of the nine states presents a candidate with more than 50% of the electorate’s preference, according to Ipec.

But in two, the poll leaders are within the margin of error of three percentage points. In Rio Grande do Norte, the current governor, Fátima Bezerra (PT), appears as the favorite with 49% of voting intentions.

In Bahia, ACM Neto (União Brasil) is the only opposition candidate to the state government in the list of top 10 favorites. But his situation has already been better.

When the campaign started in August, he had 56% voting intentions against 13% of the situation candidate, the petite Jerônimo Rodrigues.

Since then, ACM Neto dropped nine percentage points and saw his strongest opponent climb 19 points in just one month. In the Ipec survey released earlier this week, the score is 47% to 32%.

In the Federal District, Ipec indicates the possibility of a second round.

Governor Ibaneis Rocha (MDB), seeking reelection, appears with 43% of voting intentions against 16% of the second-place finisher, district deputy Leandro Grass (PV).

Other research institutes even predicted a victory for the MDB candidate in the first round.

CANDIDATES TO WIN IN THE FIRST ROUND

• North:
  Acre – Gladson Camelli (PP) – 54%
  Amapá: Clécio (Solidarity) – 50%
  Pará – Helder Barbalho (MDB) – 72%
  Roraima: Antônio Denarium (PP) – 50%
• Center-West
  Goiás – Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil) – 55%
  Mato Grosso: Mauro Mendes (União Brasil) – 60%
• Northeast
  Bahia: ACM Neto (Union Brazil) – 47%
  Rio Grande do Norte – Fátima Bezerra (PT) – 49%
• Southeast
  Espírito Santo – Renato Casagrande (PSB) – 53%
• South
  Paraná – Ratinho Jr. (PSD) – 55%

THE LAST DEBATE

In the most polarized election of the post-re-democratization era, the two candidates with a chance of victory will participate, at 10:30 PM, in the debate on TV Globo, the last before the first round of the election.

The polls show a few votes available on the electoral board, but these few may be enough for former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) to settle the election and win without needing a second round.

His main opponent, President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), represents the possibility of a four-week survival in his claim to remain in office for another four years.

For the supporting players – Ciro Gomes (PDT) and Simone Tebet (MDB) – tonight’s debate has the potential to define third place in this particular dispute.

The extras – Soraya Thronicke (União Brasil), Felipe D’Ávila (Novo), and Father Kelmon (PTB) – will try to take advantage of the electronic stage of the leading TV network to expand their respective political bases, looking further away.

According to the latest polls, Lula da Silva is very close to closing the race in the first round. An Ipec survey released Monday shows the former president in the lead, with 48% of the electorate’s preference, against 31% for Bolsonaro.

With valid votes (excluding whites, nulls, and undecided), the candidate would win the election in the first round of voting with 52% against 34% of the president.

As the margin of error is two percentage points, the institute points out that it is impossible to establish a trend, whether the election ends Sunday or will extend until the second round on the 30th. The other polls released so far also show an uncertain scenario.

STRATEGY

Because of this uncertainty, Bolsonaro’s strategy is to prevent Lula from surpassing the mark of half of the valid votes.

For the Brazilian presidential candidate, it is enough not to create any noise that would shake the hunt for the undecided.

In Ipec’s spontaneous poll, 10% of the electorate said they still have no definite candidate, while more than 80% declared they would not change their choice.

Never has an election reached the campaign’s final days with the vote so crystallized.

For political analysts, the TV Globo debate is seen as the last relevant movement of the campaign, with the potential to move the next – and final – polls.

Lula da Silva and Bolsonaro’s campaign managers are attaching great importance to tonight’s debate because of the expected high degree of hostility and the opportunity to stimulate voters to go to the polls on Sunday.

With information from Correio Braziliense