Brazil elections 2022: Bolsonaro stops growing and Lula maintains his lead – PoderData poll May 8-10

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The gap between conservative Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) has remained stable over the last 15 days. This is according to data from the PoderData poll conducted May 8-10, 2022.

Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva remains in the lead with 42% of the vote in the first simulation round, which includes a list of all candidates already announced. President Jair Bolsonaro has 35%.

The gap between the two leading candidates settled at 7 percentage points. In the April 24-26 and April 10-12 ballots, that difference remained at 5 percentage points.

Former Ceará governor Ciro Gomes (PDT) follows with 5% of the vote. Mixed appear João Doria (PSDB) with 4%, André Janones (Avante) with 3% and Simone Tebet (MDB) with 2%. The poll’s margin of error is 2 percentage points higher or lower.

Eymael (DC), Leonardo Péricles (UP), Luciano Bivar (União Brasil), Luiz Felipe D’Ávila (Novo), Pablo Marçal (Pros), Sofia Manzano (PCB) and Vera Lúcia (PSTU) did not receive votes.

The poll was conducted by PoderData, a company of the Poder360 Jornalismo Group, with its own resources. Data were collected between May 8 and 10, 2022, through calls to cell phones and landlines. 3,000 interviews were conducted in 288 cities in the 27 states of the Federation. The margin of error is 2 percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%.

WHY IT MATTERS

Because Bolsonaro has not been able to further improve his position in the electoral campaign (for about 1 month he has not narrowed his gap with Lula). Since Sergio Moro dropped out of the race, the current president has regained some of the lost electorates and gradually increased approval ratings for his government. Now that movement appears to have stalled.

Also important is Lula’s large lead among the poorest voters. There are two cyclical factors helping Lula. The first and most important is the impact of the economic slump with high inflation, low wage employment, and little prospect of improvement in the short term.

The R$400 survival assistance Auxilio Brasil has not yet been enough to boost Bolsonaro’s recovery. The second factor that has helped Lula (albeit marginally) in recent days has been the official launch of his pre-candidacy on Saturday (7) and his over-presence in the media.

Bolsonaro already understood what was going on. It is not for nothing that he has been very upset with Petrobras for rising fuel prices.

The president fired Minister of Mines and Energy Bento Albuquerque in the early hours of Wednesday morning and is thinking of a plan to keep the values of diesel, gasoline, and cooking gas.

At the turn of the March/April month, Planalto’s allies believed that the president might take the lead in the polls by June, which would be possible if the economic front were pacified.

DEMOGRAPHIC HIGHLIGHTS.

Lula is at 49% among those who receive up to two minimum wages per month, while Bolsonaro is at 28%. This stratum represents nearly half of the population (46%).

In a presidential election, whoever wins among the poorest takes a big step toward victory.

However, the current president does better among those earning 2 to 5 minimum wages (41%) and more than 5 wages (40%). These groups make up 54% of the electorate, but Bolsonaro’s lead is not enough to increase their shares of the overall picture.

With information from Poder360