BRAZIL · AGRIBUSINESS
Key Facts
- —The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, is one of the biggest corn exporters and a key rival of US farmers.
- —The background Brazil ships most of its corn between July and January, after harvesting a second crop planted straight after soybeans.
- —Why now Official trade data released on Tuesday, 6 October, show Brazilian shipments shrinking just as the US harvest gets under way.
- —What happened Brazil exported 5.21 million tonnes of corn in September, down 31% from 7.56 million tonnes a year earlier.
- —The numbers July to September shipments fell by 5.04 million tonnes, or 30%, while the average export price rose 20%.
- —What it means for you Less Brazilian corn on world markets leaves more room for US exports, with Chicago corn near US$5 a bushel.
- —Still open Whether Brazil can still reach the roughly 38 million tonnes that analysts now expect for the season.
Brazil’s peak corn export season is running far below last year, and US farmers stand to benefit.
Brazil corn exports fell 31% in September to 5.21 million tonnes, according to official trade data released on Tuesday, 6 October. The Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex) put the figure for September 2025 at 7.56 million tonnes.
The slump comes in the months when Brazil normally competes hardest with US corn on world markets. With the US harvest running late, fewer Brazilian cargoes leave more room for American grain.
What the Brazil Corn Exports Data Show
Secex, part of Brazil’s trade ministry, publishes export data by product each month. Its September figures were compiled by the farm news site Notícias Agrícolas.
Daily average shipments fell 27.8% to 248,190 tonnes, which allows for the different number of working days. Export revenue dropped 17% to US$1.24 billion, from US$1.50 billion in September 2025.
The average price per tonne rose 20.4% to US$238.88, from US$198.45. That cushioned the fall in earnings, but did not offset it.
From July to September, Brazil shipped 11.81 million tonnes, against 16.85 million tonnes a year earlier. For January to September, the total was 19.70 million tonnes, down from 23.31 million.
Why Shipments Slowed
Analysts at Hedgepoint, Marex/Agrinvest and Biond Agro, quoted by Notícias Agrícolas, pointed to stronger competition. They said the United States and Argentina are offering more competitive corn, and Argentina is chasing the same buyers as Brazil.
They also cited weaker demand from Iran for Brazilian corn amid logistics problems. At home, more corn is being processed, mainly by Brazil’s corn ethanol plants.
Forecasts for Brazil corn exports this season have fallen from 42 to 43 million tonnes to about 38 million. Reaching even that level would require a strong finish in the last months of the year.
The US Side of the Trade
The US Department of Agriculture said 23% of the US corn crop was harvested by Sunday, 4 October. That compares with a five-year average of 27%, and only 7% in Iowa, against 20% normally.
The share of US corn rated good or excellent slipped to 54% from 57% a week earlier. On Tuesday, December corn futures in Chicago rose 2.2% to US$5.08 a bushel, Notícias Agrícolas reported.
The same outlet said cumulative US export inspections remain at a record pace.
What It Means for You
For US corn growers and exporters, a weaker Brazilian season means less competition for overseas buyers. It comes as a late harvest and slipping crop ratings are already supporting prices.
For investors, the data matter to New York-listed grain traders with large Brazilian operations, such as Bunge and ADM. Corn prices also feed into US feed, ethanol and food costs.
What Is Not Known
The figures do not show how much of the drop comes from Argentine competition and how much from domestic ethanol demand. Which buyers cut purchases most is also not yet clear.
Weather adds uncertainty for the next crop. Brazil’s space agency, INPE, put the chance of a very strong El Niño between October and December at 95% on 1 October.
What Comes Next
Secex publishes weekly export figures, and the full October total is due in early November. The USDA’s next monthly supply and demand report later in October will update the US export outlook.
The slowdown does not mean Brazil’s corn sector is in trouble. It also does not guarantee higher US prices, which depend mostly on the size of the US harvest.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does Brazil export most of its corn late in the year?
Most Brazilian corn comes from a second crop planted right after the soybean harvest. It is harvested in the middle of the year and shipped mainly from July to January.
Who competes with Brazil in corn exports?
The United States is the main competitor, and Argentina is also a large exporter. Analysts say both are currently offering more competitive corn than Brazil.
Does this push up US corn prices?
It can support demand for US corn, but the size and pace of the US harvest matter more. December corn futures traded at US$5.08 a bushel on 6 October.
What is Secex?
Secex is the Foreign Trade Secretariat of Brazil’s trade ministry. It publishes the country’s official export and import statistics every week and every month.
Sources: Brazil Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC/Secex); USDA NASS Crop Progress, 5 October 2026; INPE; Notícias Agrícolas (exports); Notícias Agrícolas (Chicago); Agrolink (September 2025 base) (all accessed 7 October 2026).
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief