Brazil Coffee Exports Tumble 15.7% as 2025 US Tariff Shock Lingers
Brazil · Commodities
Key Facts
—Export volumes Brazil shipped 38.46 million 60-kg bags in the 2025/26 season, a sharp 15.7% decline from the previous cycle, signaling tighter global supply from the world’s largest exporter.
—Record prices The average export price hit an all-time high of $379.48 per bag, a 17.4% year-on-year jump, which can support producer revenue even as volumes drop.
—US tariff impact A 50% US tariff imposed in August 2025 caused Brazilian coffee shipments to the US to plunge 54.9% from August to November, stripping the US of its rank as Brazil’s top coffee market.
—Supply-side squeeze Lower exportable stock after record 2024 shipments, weather damage to the 2025 crop, and port logistics problems combined to restrict the flow of Brazilian beans.
—Cautious selling Well-capitalized Brazilian growers are selling more slowly due to tight off-season supply, which slows exports but can keep local prices firm for producers.
Brazil coffee exports fall 15.7% in the 2025/26 season to 38.46 million 60-kg bags, as a record harvest in 2024 depleted stocks and a 50% US tariff upended trade flows, exporter association Cecafé confirmed.
Exports Drop on Tight Supply and Logistics
Brazil, the world’s largest coffee exporter, shipped 38.46 million 60-kg bags in the 2025/26 crop year, a 15.7% decrease from the previous cycle, according to Cecafé. The decline reflects lower availability of coffee after record shipments in 2024 reduced stocks, weather damage to the 2025 crop, and logistics problems at Brazilian ports.
Cecafé president Márcio Ferreira noted that Brazilian producers remained well capitalized after strong prices in recent years. They adopted a more cautious sales strategy because of tight off-season supply, which further slowed the pace of exports.
US Tariff Shock Reshapes Trade Flows
Former US President Donald Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee in August 2025, a move that disrupted global trade and pushed prices higher. In September, Reuters reported that Cecafé said the United States had fallen from its position as Brazil’s largest coffee market after the tariff shock.
Ferreira revealed that the tariff cut Brazilian coffee exports to the United States by 54.9% from August to November 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Coffee is exempt from the new 25% US tariff on Brazil that takes effect July 22, 2026.
Even after the US removed tariffs on most Brazilian coffee products in late 2025, trade did not return to normal because of ongoing uncertainty over US trade policy and a related USTR investigation. Instant coffee remained subject to the tariff.
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10,947.38
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3,291,246
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2,292.03
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 176,010.90 | -0.36% | +30.14% | 176,641.10 | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.07 | -0.14% | -8.64% | 5.08 | 5.08 | 5.07 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| PETR4 | 40.59 | -0.17% | +27.04% | 40.66 | 40.59 | — | — |
| VALE3 | 74.51 | +0.68% | +38.21% | 74.01 | 74.51 | — | — |
| ITUB4 | 43.14 | -1.12% | +26.88% | 43.63 | 43.14 | — | — |
| BBDC4 | 18.60 | -0.16% | +15.53% | 18.63 | 18.60 | — | — |
| BBAS3 | 20.55 | -0.19% | -1.67% | 20.59 | 20.73 | 20.43 | 14,716,900 |
| B3SA3 | 15.69 | +2.35% | +14.28% | 15.33 | 15.85 | 15.42 | 36,695,600 |
| ABEV3 | 15.57 | -1.52% | +17.33% | 15.81 | 15.57 | — | — |
| WEGE3 | 44.26 | +0.14% | +11.57% | 44.20 | 44.26 | — | — |
| PRIO3 | 57.50 | -0.12% | +36.51% | 57.57 | 57.50 | — | — |
| SUZB3 | 41.48 | +0.90% | -17.86% | 41.11 | 41.48 | — | — |
| RENT3 | 40.35 | -0.47% | +9.32% | 40.54 | 40.35 | — | — |
| AZZA3 | 18.66 | -1.01% | -48.45% | 18.85 | 18.91 | 18.54 | 1,039,200 |
| CSNA3 | 5.24 | +0.77% | -35.15% | 5.20 | 5.24 | — | — |
| GGBR4 | 24.20 | +3.77% | +46.93% | 23.32 | 24.42 | 23.09 | 15,374,800 |
| ENEV3 | 26.95 | -0.81% | +100.07% | 27.17 | 26.95 | — | — |
Prices Hit Record Highs Despite Volume Drop
The average export price reached $379.48 per bag, the highest on record and 17.4% higher than in the previous crop year. While the lower volumes hurt exporters and roasters, Cecafé noted that producers could benefit in the short to medium term from higher prices.
The combination of reduced supply and trade disruption kept global markets tense. If the tariffs had stayed in place entirely, Brazilian shipments to the US were expected to diminish further, according to Cecafé’s September 2025 assessment.
Why This Matters for Investors and Residents
Coffee is a cornerstone of Brazil’s agricultural export economy, and a double-digit drop in shipments from the world’s biggest supplier tightens the global market. For investors, the record-high average price of $379.48 per bag signals that well-capitalized producers and processors may continue to see strong revenue per unit sold, even as total volumes shrink.
For expat residents and consumers, the shift in trade flows and the persistence of the instant-coffee tariff point to potential price increases and changes in brand availability in local and international markets. The stronger domestic use of robusta and conilon beans, as arabica tightened, could also reshape the range of coffee products on supermarket shelves.
A Weaker January and an Uncertain Outlook
In January 2026, Brazil’s coffee exports fell 31% compared to a year earlier, Reuters reported. Cecafé linked the drop to weaker international prices, expectations of a record 2026 crop, and stronger domestic use of robusta and conilon varieties as arabica tightened.
Cecafé’s data, published by UOL and Comunicaffe, confirms that the 2025/26 season’s decline was driven by both structural supply constraints and the shock of US trade policy. With trade flows still adjusting and a new crop on the horizon, exporters and buyers face a period of continued recalibration.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much did Brazil’s coffee exports fall in the 2025/26 season?
Cecafé reported that Brazil exported 38.46 million 60-kg bags in the 2025/26 crop year, a decrease of 15.7% from the previous cycle.
Why did the US stop being Brazil’s top coffee buyer?
A 50% US tariff imposed in August 2025 slashed Brazilian coffee exports to the US by 54.9% from August to November 2025. The US lost its top-buyer status after the tariff shock, according to Cecafé.
Did coffee prices rise despite the export drop?
Yes. The average export price reached a record $379.48 per bag, 17.4% higher than in the previous crop year, as tighter supply and trade disruption pushed prices up.
Sources: Cecafé: exportações de café do Brasil caem 15,7% na safra 2025/26, Brazil coffee exports to US to fall further if tariffs stay, Cecafe president says, Brazil coffee exports fall 31% in January, Cecafé says, Cecafé: Brazil’s coffee exports fall sharply in July (-27.6%) to 2.7 million bags as industry begins to suffer from Trump’s tariffs, Brazil’s instant coffee sector seeks clarity on US decision to keep 50% tariff, Brazilian coffee growers fear market loss from 50% US tariffs
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