BHP Produces Around 2 Million Tonnes of Copper Again, Warns of 2027 Drop

Chile · Mining

BHP copper output flags 2027 decline after the mining giant produced around 1.95 million tonnes of copper for a second straight year, warning investors that falling ore grades at its Chilean mega-mine Escondida will pull group production down to as low as 1.65 million tonnes next fiscal year.

A Two-Year Peak Near 2 Million Tonnes

BHP recorded copper production of 2.02 million tonnes in fiscal year 2025, right at the high end of its guidance. In fiscal 2026, group output slipped to approximately 1.95 million tonnes, a 3% drop from the prior year but still close to the 2-million-tonne mark for a second consecutive twelve-month period.

This near-record plateau was underpinned by strong throughput at Escondida in Chile’s Antofagasta Region, the world’s largest copper mine. Escondida alone was originally expected to produce 1.2–1.275 million tonnes for the year and helped keep BHP within the upper half of its 1.9–2.0-million-tonne guidance band.

Why Output Will Fall in Fiscal 2027

Days after the full-year results, BHP issued guidance for fiscal 2027 that projects a material decline to between 1.65 and 1.80 million tonnes. The company explicitly linked the drop to a “forecast grade decline at Escondida,” where the concentrator feed grade has already been trending lower, falling to 0.91% in recent months.

At Pampa Norte, which houses the Spence and temporarily closed Cerro Colorado mines, production is also under pressure. Spence output is forecast to slip to 210,000–230,000 tonnes in fiscal 2027, weighed down by lower stacked feed grades and a transition to lower-grade areas of the pit. Combined, the grade-driven erosion at both assets reduces BHP’s total Chilean output in the short term.

Chile’s Role and BHP’s Billion-Dollar Response

By the end of the decade, BHP’s annual global copper production is forecast to fall by roughly 300,000 tonnes to around 1.6 million tonnes, largely because of a slump at Escondida. The company is not standing still: it has obtained its first major environmental approval to begin early-stage works, unlocking spending of up to $14.7 billion over about ten years.

From fiscal 2028, BHP will invest $7.3–$9.8 billion in new projects at Escondida to counteract declining ore grades and the planned closure of its Los Colorados plant. Including work at Spence and a restart of Cerro Colorado, the company expects its Chilean copper production to stabilize at roughly 1.4 million tonnes per year on average through the 2030s, a modest increase from current levels.

Why This Matters for Investors and Expats

Copper is the backbone of Chile’s economy, and BHP’s operations account for a substantial share of the country’s output. A decline at Escondida and Spence coincides with national copper production falling to a 25-year low, hitting 5.33 million tonnes in recent data, which can affect Chile’s fiscal revenues and the broader macroeconomic stability expatriates and investors watch closely.

On the global stage, BHP estimates the world needs an additional 10 million tonnes of new mined copper supply by 2035 to balance demand from electrification and renewable energy. The temporary production dip at BHP—and the subsequent rebound planned through heavy investment—means Chile remains central to filling an expected global deficit, reinforcing the long-term value of its mining sector for strategic investors.

Outlook Beyond the 2027 Dip

Looking further ahead, BHP expects its Chilean growth projects to bring production back up, targeting an annual average of about 1.4 million tonnes through the 2030s. Medium-term projections see Escondida’s output settling at 900,000–1,000,000 tonnes per year while Pampa Norte stabilizes around 235,000 tonnes per year.

The current plateau near 2 million tonnes is therefore a high-water mark before a planned valley. Investors reading the 2027 guidance should view it less as structural decline and more as an engineered transition while BHP deploys tens of billions of dollars to re-rate its Chilean assets for the next decade of copper demand growth.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is BHP’s copper production expected to fall in 2027?

BHP has guided for a decline to 1.65–1.80 million tonnes in fiscal 2027 mainly because of a forecast drop in ore grades at the Escondida mine in Chile. Lower concentrator feed grades mean less copper can be extracted from each tonne of processed rock, reducing total output.

How much copper does BHP produce in Chile?

Chile currently accounts for about 1.3 million tonnes per year of BHP’s production, led by Escondida. After planned multi-billion-dollar investments, BHP expects to stabilize its Chilean copper output at roughly 1.4 million tonnes per year on average through the 2030s.

What is BHP doing to counter falling ore grades at Escondida?

BHP has secured environmental approvals to start up to $14.7 billion in expansion and modernization works at Escondida and related assets. From 2028, the company plans to spend $7.3–$9.8 billion on projects to counteract grade declines, including sulfide leaching upgrades and electricity infrastructure improvements, helping to stabilize long-term production.

Sources: BHP copper output slips 5% in Q4, flags further decline in Chile (Mining.com), BHP misses quarterly copper output estimates, flags lower Chilean production (Reuters), Australia’s BHP to invest in domestic copper (Argus Media), BHP gets approval to start $15bn copper expansion in Chile (Mining Weekly), BHP bets billions on Chile mines to face global copper crunch (Mining.com), BHP copper production: Chile set to stabilise at 1.4Mtpa (Mining Technology)

Connected Coverage

Chile Names 10 Unregistered Betting Sites in Tax Crackdown

Chile Storm’s Economic Toll: Generator Sales Surge 50 Times, Exports Tumble

Read More from The Rio Times

• Venezuela’s Reconstruction Hits a Wall: A Decade of Brain Drain
• Costa Rica Tourist Arrivals Jump 7.8% in First Half of 2026, Though June Edges Down
• UK Opens Up to $6.8 Billion in Financing Capacity for Guatemala Infrastructure