Key Points
- A last-minute Italian pause in December shifted the EU–Mercosur signing away from Brazil.
- The January ceremony in Asunción spotlights Paraguay’s Peña and Argentina’s Milei, not Lula.
- The pact is huge on paper, but Europe’s farm politics can still block ratification.
For years, the EU–Mercosur deal looked like a slow, technical negotiation. In the end, it became a lesson in timing and leverage.
Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, expected a December finish. Brazil held Mercosur’s rotating presidency and planned a summit in Foz do Iguaçu on December 20.
Lula spoke as if the signature was basically guaranteed. Then the calendar betrayed him.
Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, said in early December it was premature to sign.
Her stated concern was protection for European farmers.
Inside the EU, that mattered because support and opposition were finely balanced. One government moving could change the result.
January brought a small but useful political bridge. The European Commission floated earlier access to parts of the EU’s 2028–2034 farm funding.
Meloni’s Late Yes Turned The Mercosur-EU Deal Into A Power Story
Italy welcomed the idea. Soon after, the EU Council adopted decisions on January 9 authorizing signature of two linked instruments.
One is the broader partnership agreement. The other is an interim trade agreement that allows parts to move faster.
Now the signing is set for Asunción, under Paraguay’s Santiago Peña. Peña holds Mercosur’s rotating presidency and gains the host’s spotlight.
Argentina’s Javier Milei also benefits from the photo. Brazil, the biggest economy in the bloc, is expected to send its foreign minister, Mauro Vieira.
Lula is left outside the frame, despite months of pushing. The economics are the easy part to sell. If ratified, the pact would phase out about 91% of Mercosur tariffs and about 92% of EU tariffs.
Brussels estimates EU firms could save more than €4 billion per year in duties. The politics are the hard part to finish.
France remains a leading critic, citing farmer pressure and standards. The European Parliament can still reject the package. So the signature, while historic, is not the last hurdle.
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For the full picture, see our Mercosur EU Trade Deal: Complete Guide.