Morgan Stanley Sees Argentina as the Next Mining Frontier
Argentina · MINING
Key Facts
- —Report Morgan Stanley’s Malbec & Minerals study reached Argentine media on 2 March 2026.
- —Capital The bank counted over 50 advanced projects worth more than US$50 billion.
- —Exports Mining sales reached US$4.742 billion in the first half of 2026.
- —Share Mining supplied 9.7% of all Argentine exports in that six-month period.
- —Regime Twenty-one approved incentive projects carried US$46.7 billion of commitments by early August 2026.
A named report, not an anonymous note, put Argentina on the global copper map. The provinces where the metal sits are less convinced.
The Argentina mining investment case has a named author on Wall Street. Morgan Stanley titled its study Malbec & Minerals: Is Argentina the Next Mining Frontier?
What the Wall Street report actually says
Morgan Stanley is a named house with a dated document, not an anonymous Wall Street voice. Argentine business media reported the study’s contents on 2 March 2026, and again on 12 March.
The study says the country is leaving behind a high-risk jurisdiction of controls, distortive taxes and regulatory friction. In its place, the bank sees a competitive destination for large-scale capital.
Morgan Stanley counted more than 50 advanced projects across copper, lithium, gold, silver and uranium. It estimated they could mobilise more than US$50 billion in capital spending.
The argument is financial rather than patriotic. Lower effective taxes and three decades of stability could pull marginal dollars from Chile and Peru.
The copper projects behind the forecast
Copper carries the Argentina mining investment story, according to the report. Morgan Stanley identified eight large copper projects needing roughly US$44 billion to reach production.
The biggest is Vicuña in San Juan, which merges the Josemaría and Filo del Sol deposits. BHP and Lundin Mining have announced US$18 billion of spending there over ten years.
Taca Taca in Salta, El Pachón in San Juan and MARA in Catamarca complete the copper core. MARA stands for Minera Agua Rica Alumbrera, a project local assemblies have long fought.
The bank does not expect meaningful copper output before 2030. It projects roughly 1.2 million tonnes a year by 2035 and copper exports near US$26 billion.
Lithium moves first, gold pays the bills
Lithium reaches production faster, which is why it leads the near-term Argentina mining investment numbers. Six of the country’s eight operating lithium mines started up in 2023 or later.
Lithium exports reached US$179 million in June 2026, up 329% from a year earlier. That was 28.5% of the month’s mining sales, according to the consultancy Aleph Energy.
Gold still pays the bills. It brought in US$401 million in June, or 52% of mining exports, at prices near US$4,228 an ounce.
Silver added US$108 million in the same month. Copper averaged US$13,600 a tonne in June, a 38% rise on the year.
How the RIGI changed the arithmetic
The Régimen de Incentivo para Grandes Inversiones (RIGI), or Large Investment Incentive Regime, sits at the centre of the case. Created by Law 27,742, it grants 30 years of tax and currency stability.
Rincón in Salta was the first mining project admitted, in May 2025. Rio Tinto committed US$2.7 billion to that lithium operation in the Puna.
Los Azules in San Juan followed in September 2025, with US$2.7 billion from McEwen Copper. The company expects US$1.1 billion a year in copper sales across a 27-year mine life.
Vicuña entered the regime in 2026, alongside LIEX’s US$709 million Tres Quebradas and POSCO’s US$547 million Sal de Oro expansion. Nine of the regime’s first 16 approvals were mining projects.
Decree 105/2026 extended the window to apply by one year, to 8 July 2027. By early August the regime held 21 approved projects worth US$46.7 billion.
What Argentina’s export numbers show now
The Argentina mining investment case is ultimately judged on export dollars. Mining sales reached US$6.075 billion in 2025, or 6.9% of the country’s total exports.
Those numbers come from the Cámara Argentina de Empresas Mineras (CAEM), the national mining chamber. The first half of 2026 then brought US$4.742 billion, a record for that period.
Mining supplied 9.7% of all exports in those six months, and 9% in June alone. CAEM and the Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario, the Rosario Board of Trade, project more than US$9 billion.
The statistics agency Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (INDEC) put July exports at US$8.854 billion. That was a July record, a 14.1% annual rise and a thirty-second straight monthly surplus.
A second Wall Street voice adds a warning
JPMorgan examined the same Argentina mining investment pipeline in August 2026. It put the total near US$150 billion, about 21% of gross domestic product.
The bank called the incentive regime one of the region’s most ambitious bids for long-term capital. It reckoned Argentina, Chile, Peru and Colombia could jointly mobilise up to US$300 billion.
Then came the caveat that runs through the whole note. The challenge is no longer announcing projects, the bank wrote, but executing them.
Mines and export terminals take years to build. Announced numbers do not convert into growth automatically, and that gap is where the risk sits.
Courts, water and provincial vetoes
The Argentina mining investment story has an organised opposition. In April 2026 a judge in Chilecito, La Rioja, halted work at Vicuña for 30 days.
Judge María Greta Decker also closed a supply corridor crossing La Rioja territory. She demanded a full environmental impact assessment before operations could resume.
The order reopened an old border quarrel between two provinces. Governor Ricardo Quintela claims shared sovereignty, while Governor Marcelo Orrego insists the deposits sit under San Juan soil.
Water is the second front. Greenpeace and allied groups have gone to court over a rock glacier catalogued as GE110, inside the Vicuña project area.
A reform of the national glacier law was promulgated by Decree 271/2026 in April. Campaigners say it narrows protection and lets provinces seek removals from the national glacier inventory.
Catamarca, Chubut and the limits of the boom
Catamarca shows how slowly local consent moves. In February 2026 the Supreme Court left standing a ruling that voided Andalgalá’s municipal ban on open-pit mining.
In August 2026 an 11-hour public hearing in Andalgalá produced a fresh demand. The provincial mining ministry asked for a new environmental report on the Bajo La Alumbrera exploitation stage.
Chubut remains closed to open-pit metal mining altogether. Provincial Law 5001, now numbered Law XVII 68, has blocked the Navidad silver project since 2003.
That law followed a 2003 referendum in Esquel that rejected large-scale mining. Pan American Silver’s deposit, among the world’s largest undeveloped silver bodies, is still idle.
Investors reading the Argentina mining investment thesis should therefore watch permits, not press releases. Commodity prices and the electoral calendar can freeze final decisions just as quickly.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which Wall Street bank called Argentina a major mining destination?
Morgan Stanley. Its study is titled Malbec & Minerals: Is Argentina the Next Mining Frontier? Argentine business media reported the contents on 2 March 2026.
What is the RIGI?
The Régimen de Incentivo para Grandes Inversiones, or Large Investment Incentive Regime, grants 30 years of tax and currency stability. It was created by Law 27,742, and Decree 105/2026 extended the application window to 8 July 2027.
What could stop the Argentina mining investment wave?
Lower metal prices, election-year uncertainty and the courts. Judges in La Rioja and Catamarca have already delayed work, and Chubut still bans open-pit metal mining.
Connected Coverage
Argentina approves US$365 million RIGI project to expand Mega gas complex
Sources
- www.cronista.com
- www.iprofesional.com
- www.forbesargentina.com
- buenosairesherald.com
- www.ambito.com
- www.indec.gob.ar
- www.argentina.gob.ar
- www.infobae.com
- www.greenpeace.org
- www.mineriaydesarrollo.com
- elaconquija.com
- www.riotimesonline.com
- www.riotimesonline.com
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
Read More from The Rio Times