Argentina Markets: Merval & the Peso — August 11, 2026

01 The session in one read

Argentina’s stock market pushed higher on Monday, almost entirely on the strength of one name: YPF. The state-controlled oil producer vaulted 3.7% after reporting a US$1.2 billion quarterly profit and pledging to speed up drilling in Vaca Muerta, the Patagonian shale formation that holds some of the world’s largest recoverable oil and gas reserves.

The rally lifted the Merval index, which tracks the largest and most liquid Argentine companies, 1.14% to 3,122,064 points. The advance came despite a rough day for sovereign debt, where prices slipped and pushed the country risk gauge up to 465 basis points.

Selling in bonds was concentrated in dollar-denominated issues, reflecting unease over how long Argentina can sustain its currency anchor — the managed crawl of the official peso — without burning through more foreign reserves. The official peso barely moved, slipping a tiny 0.04% to 1,498 per dollar.

On the broader board, winners outnumbered losers, though trading volumes remained thin for a Monday in August. Investors rotated into energy and materials exporters while trimming bets on utilities and domestic-facing stocks, a pattern consistent with a market that sees inflation edging higher when July data lands later this week.

02 The day’s numbers

The Merval sits just a hair below its all-time high, having rallied for most of 2026 on the back of the Milei reform programme. The index has more than doubled from its 52-week low of roughly 1.32 million points, a move that reflects both real economic improvement and the mechanical effect of high inflation on nominal share prices.

The official peso traded almost flat at 1,498 per dollar. That extraordinary stability, enforced by the central bank’s daily interventions, keeps inflation expectations in check but draws frequent criticism from economists who argue the real exchange rate is becoming dangerously overvalued.

03 Why it moved — YPF’s blowout quarter

YPF delivered a net profit of US$1.205 billion for the April-to-June period, the second-best quarterly net result in the company’s history, and announced it would accelerate capital spending in Vaca Muerta during the second half of the year. That spending climbed 16% year-on-year in the quarter alone.

For global investors who follow Argentina through the CEDEAR programme — local certificates that track US-listed shares — YPF’s numbers validated the core thesis behind the ‘Milei trade’: that deregulation and fiscal discipline would unlock the country’s vast energy wealth.

The company also confirmed the sale of its 70% stake in gas distributor Metrogas to Edenor, controlled by businessmen Daniel Vila and José Luis Manzano, for US$780 million. The deal marks YPF’s exit from the gas distribution business after 14 years and sharpens its focus on exploration and production in Vaca Muerta.

The broader rally was held back by the bond market. Argentine dollar bonds fell across the curve, pushing country risk up to 465 points. Traders cited nervousness ahead of the July inflation report, with private forecasts pointing to a monthly rise between 1.8% and 2.4%, which would break a two-month streak of declining inflation.

04 The day’s movers

Ternium Argentina, the steelmaker known by the ticker TXAR, was the session’s top domestic gainer with a 5.5% jump on just US$3 million in turnover. The move extended a global rally among steel producers on expectations of stronger infrastructure spending in North America and Asia.

Among the most-traded names, turnover was concentrated in YPF at US$14 million, followed by Grupo Galicia at US$7 million and Pampa Energía and Banco Macro at US$3 million apiece. Volume in those top four stocks accounted for the majority of the day’s activity, confirming that institutional money remains tightly focused on the liquid energy and banking names that anchor the Merval.

05 The regional scoreboard

Argentina’s Merval was the region’s standout performer, contrasting sharply with losses in Brazil and Mexico. Brazil’s Ibovespa, which tracks the São Paulo exchange, slipped 0.19% as traders locked in profits after the central bank’s recent 25-basis-point rate cut to 14.00%.

Colombia’s COLCAP rose 0.94%, making it the second-best performer in the region, as bargain hunters stepped in after a string of declines. Mexico’s IPC dropped 0.75%, the worst of the day, reflecting caution around industrial production data due on Tuesday.

06 The technical picture

The Merval at 3,122,064 sits about 8% below its 22 July record of 3,395,937, putting it in uncharted territory. The steady grind higher across 2026 has been characterised by shallow pullbacks and quick recoveries, a pattern that technical analysts describe as a ‘buy-the-dip’ regime.

Trading volumes on Monday were moderate, which often accompanies August sessions when decision-makers are away from their desks. The key technical level to watch on the upside is 3,150,000, a round-number barrier that would likely trigger algorithmic buying if broken with conviction.

For the peso, the 1,498-to-1,500 band has become a de facto ceiling in official trading, and the currency’s 52-week range between 1,321 and 1,500 underscores just how tightly the central bank has managed the exchange rate. The risk, flagged by former central bank president Martín Redrado in a report released over the weekend, is that rising non-performing loans in the private sector signal stress under that veneer of stability.

Redrado’s proposal for ‘creative solutions’ to rising loan defaults — without fresh public spending — landed on Monday’s tape and served as a reminder that the real economy remains fragile even as the Merval flirts with all-time highs. For equity bulls, the test will be whether earnings, like YPF’s record quarter, can continue to outrun the debt-market anxiety captured by country risk.

07 What to watch

• July inflation print: Private forecasts range from 1.8% to 2.4%. A reading above June’s level would break a two-month streak of slowing inflation and could pressure local-currency assets.
• YPF capex execution: The promised acceleration of Vaca Muerta spending is now market-facing: any delay or reduction would hit not just YPF but the entire energy supply chain that dominates the Merval.
• Country risk trajectory: At 465 points and rising, sovereign debt stress could eventually bleed into equities if it triggers forced selling from emerging-market funds with hard risk limits.
• IMF programme review: Argentina’s next scheduled review with the International Monetary Fund will dictate reserve accumulation targets and the pace of the managed currency crawl; both directly affect the ‘Milei trade’ thesis.

Background: Argentina RIGI: BCRA Eases FX Access for Insurers.

Background: Argentina Country Risk Hits 451 Basis Points.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Merval and how much did it move?

The Merval is Argentina’s benchmark stock index tracking the most liquid companies on the Buenos Aires exchange. It rose 1.14% to 3,122,064 points on Monday.

Why did YPF jump so much?

YPF reported a record US$1.205 billion quarterly profit and promised to accelerate investment in the Vaca Muerta shale formation. It also confirmed the US$780 million sale of its Metrogas stake to Edenor.

What is country risk and why did it rise?

Country risk measures the extra yield investors demand to hold Argentine bonds over safe US Treasuries, expressed in basis points. It rose to 465 points because bonds sold off on fears that inflation is reaccelerating.

What is the official peso rate and how does it work?

The official peso rate (USD/ARS) is the exchange rate used for most trade and financial transactions, managed by the central bank through daily interventions. It slipped 0.04% to 1,498 per dollar, near the top of its 52-week range.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error

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