Argentina Markets: Merval & the Peso — July 11, 2026

01 The session in one read

Argentina’s bourse produced one of its livelier sessions of the month on July 10th, even though the exchange was technically operating on a non-working public holiday declared for tourism purposes rather than a full closure. Bank stocks shone in Wall Street and, in a session without settlement because of the non-working day but a meaningful one nonetheless, also on the Buenos Aires exchange.

The gains carried through to the S&P Merval index, which improved 2.43% in a session with thin trading volume that will in any case settle on Monday, given the bridge holiday. The move came alongside a fresh leg down in country risk, as bond repayments and this week’s presentation of the government’s financing programme kept feeding into dollar bonds, enabling a new step lower in country risk, to 402 points.

Grupo Galicia’s New York-listed ADR led bank stocks with a 9% advance, BBVA Argentina followed at 8.9%, and Banco Macro and Grupo Supervielle both improved 5.8%, in a rally that also swept up Central Puerto and TGS at around 6%. Locally, the most-traded BYMA ticker on the session was Grupo Financiera Galicia’s ordinary shares, up 5.8% on roughly $11 million of turnover — the single busiest domestic name of the day.

YPF’s local stock (YPFD) was the scan’s biggest domestic laggard, down 1.8% on about $3 million of turnover, with Pampa Energía also softer, down 0.5% — a reminder that the rally was concentrated in financials and utilities rather than broad-based.

02 The day’s numbers

The peso is the session’s odd one out: it barely moved on the scan even as country risk collapsed, and it sits just 0.3% shy of its 52-week high — meaning the weakest print of the year for the currency. Local banks were shut for the holiday, and there was no activity in the FX market, with the official dollar remaining at $1,510 in the parallel retail read, underscoring how thin genuine price discovery was on the day.

For foreign desks without direct access to peso-denominated shares, the ARGT proxy — the New York-listed ETF that tracks Argentine equities including several Merval constituents — offers a dollar-based read, and it firmed 3.08% to 95.07, though it remains 7.3% below its 52-week high of 102.57. That gap between a buoyant bond and bank-ADR complex and a still-recovering broad equity proxy is worth watching into next week.

03 Why it moved — Milei’s financing plan pulls country risk toward 400

The improvement in sovereign bonds, the payment of debt to private creditors, and the presentation of the 2026-2027 financing programme all contributed to compressing the indicator. Country risk touched 403 points on Friday and, even with no local market open for the holiday, JPMorgan’s gauge kept deepening its downward trend into July, edging toward the 400-point threshold last seen in 2018.

The financing plan itself was designed to reassure investors on how Argentina covers roughly eighteen months of foreign-currency maturities, using local issuance, multilateral-backed loans, IMF disbursements, privatisations and central-bank dollar purchases — the kind of detail that has underpinned the bank-stock and bond rally all week.

Not everyone is fully convinced on cost: private analysts point to the speed of the improvement but warn that issuing debt abroad would still carry an elevated cost, with external credit access still expensive. One local consultancy calculated that, with country risk near 404 points and US 10-year yields around 4.49%, a sovereign issuance would yield roughly 8.6% annually — above the 6.3%-7.75% available on World Bank or IDB-backed loans.

That’s precisely why the bank-ADR complex — Galicia, BBVA Argentina, Banco Macro, Central Puerto — did the heavy lifting on the session: they are the names most directly geared to a falling discount rate on Argentine risk, while energy names like YPF, more exposed to global crude and capex cycles, sat out the rally.

04 The day’s movers

The turnover data confirms where the real money moved: Grupo Galicia’s ordinary shares topped the BYMA tape at roughly $11 million, more than triple the next-busiest domestic name, while its ADR complex — plus Banco Macro’s and Central Puerto’s — did even more work in New York with gains of 5.8% to 6%.

Two CEDEAR-style cross-listed instruments also featured heavily on the most-traded list but say nothing about domestic Argentina: MercadoLibre’s Buenos Aires-listed CEDEAR rose 2.1% on $3 million of turnover and the EWZ Brazil ETF proxy jumped 3.9% on about $1 million, both moves reflecting Nasdaq and regional sentiment plus the peso rather than any Argentine operating result.

05 The regional scoreboard

Argentina’s Merval outpaced its regional peer with the clearest verified move of the session; Mexico’s IPC was also firmer, up 0.82% at midday as it tried to snap a run of losses tied to Middle East jitters, though that reading was captured before the New York close.

The live market board above carries the closes for Bovespa, IPSA and COLCAP; without a same-day verified print for those three, they are left blank here rather than estimated.

06 The technical picture

Country risk’s slide to 402 basis points puts JPMorgan’s EMBI+ gauge on the doorstep of the 400-point mark, a level unseen since 2018 and the clearest technical trigger traders are watching for the reform trade to gain further legitimacy with foreign funds.

On the currency side, USD/ARS at 1,487 sits just 0.3% below its 52-week high of 1,492 — effectively the peso’s weakest zone of the past year — making that level the key line in the sand; a close above it would mark a fresh 52-week low for the currency, while a retreat toward the middle of its 1,273-1,492 range would ease pressure on importers and dollar-linked contracts.

The ARGT proxy’s rebound to 95.07 leaves it 7.3% below its 52-week high of 102.57 but well clear of its 66.80 low, consistent with a market recovering within a wide range rather than testing either extreme outright.

07 What to watch

• 400-point country risk floor: Whether JPMorgan’s EMBI+ Argentina gauge closes below 400bp next week — a level unseen since 2018 and a psychological marker for the Milei reform trade.
• Peso’s weak extreme: USD/ARS sits just 0.3% off its 52-week high of 1,492; a break above that level would mark a fresh yearly low for the currency.
• Bank ADR complex: Whether Grupo Galicia’s 9% jump and the 5.8%-6% gains in Banco Macro, Central Puerto and peers hold once Monday’s delayed BYMA settlement clears the tape.
• YPF and Pampa’s laggard status: Energy names underperformed the financials-led rally; watch for a catch-up trade if oil-linked ADRs join the bank complex.

Background: Argentina’s Inflation Is Falling Monthly and Rising Annually.

Background: Argentina Paid 44% of Its Year’s Dollar Debt in a Single Day.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did the Merval rise on a non-working holiday?

Trading continued on a reduced basis under Argentina’s non-working day, and the S&P Merval still gained 2.43%, though volumes were thin and trades settle only on Monday.

Why didn’t the peso strengthen alongside the rally?

USD/ARS closed near 1,487, just 0.3% off its 52-week high, as official FX markets saw little activity with banks shut for the holiday, leaving the currency effectively pinned near its weakest levels of the year.

What is Argentina’s country risk and why does it matter?

It is JPMorgan’s EMBI+ spread measuring the extra yield investors demand on Argentine sovereign bonds over US Treasuries; it fell to 402 basis points, its lowest since 2018, reflecting improved confidence in the government’s 2026-27 financing plan.

Which stocks led and lagged?

Grupo Galicia, Banco Macro and Central Puerto ADRs led with gains of 5.8% to 9% in New York, while YPF (−1.8%) and Pampa Energía (−0.5%) were the scan’s biggest domestic laggards.

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