Argentina Faces Only Modest Growth in 2027, Says Head of IDEA Business Forum
ECONOMY · ARGENTINA
Key Facts
- —The country Argentina, South America’s second-largest economy, chooses a president in 2027. The next term starts on 10 December 2027, Filo News noted.
- —What happened On 2 October Fabián Kon, president of this year’s IDEA business colloquium, told Filo News that 2027 will probably bring “not very big growth” amid pre-election tension.
- —The numbers Forecasts for 2027 growth: 4% in the government budget (15 September), 3% from the OECD (23 September) and 2.5% from JP Morgan (25 September).
- —What it means for you Expect a slow election year rather than a boom. All three forecasts still show the economy growing in 2027, and the budget keeps a fiscal surplus.
- —Still open Kon gave no figure of his own. It is unclear whether consumption recovers and how many companies delay investment until after the vote.
The head of IDEA, Argentina’s best-known annual gathering of business leaders, expects only modest growth next year. Fabián Kon said 2027 will probably be a year of “not very big growth”, weighed down by pre-election tension.
Kon, chief executive of the Galicia financial group, spoke to the news site Filo News in Mar del Plata on 2 October. The Buenos Aires daily Crónica carried the same warning that day.
What Kon Said
“I think next year will be a year with a lot of pre-election tension, which happens in every election in Argentina,” Kon told Filo News. It would probably be a year “of not very big growth”, he added.
He presented the slowdown as a cost of stabilisation. Countries that stabilised, he said, pass through stages “sometimes of rising unemployment, sometimes of low growth, but it is the only way”.
The alternative, in his words, is “fiscal irresponsibility”, which can feel beneficial in the short term but does not solve the problem. He said no unstable country had ever improved its social indicators.
What the Forecasts Say
Kon’s caution sits below the official outlook. The government’s 2027 budget, presented on 15 September, projects 4% growth and average annual inflation of 21.1%, Infobae reported.
The OECD, the Paris-based club of mostly advanced economies, cut its 2027 forecast for Argentina to 3% from 3.5% on 23 September. JP Morgan kept its 2027 call at 2.5% while cutting 2026 to 1.5%, El Economista reported.
The near term looks weaker after a sharp fall in July activity, covered in Argentina Slides Toward Recession as JP Morgan Cuts 2026 Growth to 1.5%. Even so, none of the three forecasts sees the economy shrinking in 2027.
The budget also plans a fourth straight year of fiscal surplus, Infobae reported. That is the stability business leaders said they want protected after the election.
A Forum Behind Milei, With Caveats
IDEA, the Institute for Argentine Business Development, held its 62nd colloquium at the Sheraton hotel in Mar del Plata this week. Kon opened it on Wednesday, saying business backs “all the measures and reforms”, elDiarioAR reported.
President Javier Milei spoke by video from Paris during his investment tour, covered in Argentina Paris Week Brings US$10.5 Billion in Pledges. He asked for patience and said voters would choose between a “great” or “miserable” country, according to elDiarioAR.
Kon told Filo News that stability is neither left nor right. He listed what any government should protect: contracts, regulatory frameworks, stable tax rules and competitiveness.
“You cannot start again and leave that wall half built,” he said. He cited Uruguay, where rules survive changes of government, as former president Luis Lacalle Pou told the forum.
The Mood in Mar del Plata
In a paper survey of executives at the event, the newspaper Perfil found 35.7% saw activity in their sector worsen. Only 23.8% saw an improvement, and 40.5% reported no change.
Some 52.4% said employment in their sector had fallen. Yet 81% expected Milei to win re-election in 2027, Perfil reported on 3 October.
Infobae found a split by sector, with energy and mining executives describing a good year. Steelmaker Acindar’s chief said its market fell 30% in 2024, recovered 5% in 2025 and was flat in 2026.
Retail is cautious too. A supermarket chain told Infobae its analysts expect the mass-consumption market to range from flat to about 1% growth next year.
What Is Not Yet Known
Kon gave no growth figure of his own, and IDEA has not published a formal forecast for 2027. Perfil did not state how many executives answered its survey.
Exporters told elDiarioAR they plan investments but may delay spending until the 2027 winner is clear. How many will wait is not yet known.
Sources: Filo News, interview with Fabián Kon, 2 Oct 2026; Crónica, 2 Oct 2026; Infobae, IDEA executives on activity and jobs, 1 Oct 2026; Infobae, 2027 budget projections, 15 Sep 2026; Perfil, IDEA executive survey, 3 Oct 2026; elDiarioAR, 2 Oct 2026; TN, OECD forecast, 23 Sep 2026; iProfesional, OECD forecast, 23 Sep 2026; El Economista, JP Morgan forecast, 27 Sep 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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