ARGENTINA · ENERGY
Key Facts
- —The country Argentina is a large South American oil and gas producer, and its Vaca Muerta shale formation in Neuquén Province is now the main driver of its export growth.
- —Why it matters Energy exports bring in the dollars Argentina needs for debt and reserves, and the United States is the largest buyer of its fuel exports so far in 2026.
- —Why now INDEC, the national statistics office, published the September trade figures on Monday 19 October 2026, and energy supplied just over half of the national surplus.
- —What happened Net energy trade, meaning fuel and energy exports minus fuel imports, was a surplus of US$1.6 billion in September, or 53.8% of the US$2.976 billion national surplus.
- —The numbers Fuel and energy exports were US$1.781 billion, up 89.1% from a year earlier, against fuel imports of US$181 million. Over nine months the energy surplus is US$9.427 billion.
- —What it means for you Investors in YPF shares and Argentine bonds see a firmer source of dollar income, and US buyers already take more Argentine fuel than any other country.
- —Still open Whether oil prices stay high enough, and whether new export pipeline capacity opens in early 2027 as planned.
- —Power Index Argentina ranks 4th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 61.2 points (October 2026 edition).
The Argentina energy trade surplus reached US$1.6 billion in September, according to the Energy Secretariat’s reading of the trade report INDEC published on Monday 19 October 2026. Fuel and energy exports of US$1.781 billion far outweighed fuel imports of US$181 million.
For US readers the key point is that the United States is the biggest buyer of Argentine fuel so far this year, taking US$3.046 billion from January to September. Chile ranks second with US$2.304 billion, and both figures cover energy exports only.
Energy produced 53.8% of the month’s national trade surplus of US$2.976 billion, so more than half of the net dollars from goods trade came from fuels. We covered the headline numbers in Argentina’s Trade Surplus Hits US$3 Billion, and this report looks at the energy side.
How the Argentina Energy Trade Surplus Reached US$1.6 Billion
The Energy Secretariat measure subtracts fuel and lubricant imports from exports of the fuel and energy group in INDEC’s trade report. September exports of US$1.781 billion rose 89.1% from a year earlier, an extra US$840 million.
Export prices rose 33.4% and quantities rose 39.8%, INDEC found, so the gain came in near-equal parts from dearer oil and more barrels sold. Fuel and energy made up 17.7% of all Argentine goods exports in the month.
Crude oil was the country’s top single export at US$1.127 billion, ahead of soybean meal and pellets at US$1.006 billion and maize at US$833 million. Crude exports rose about 86% from September 2025, when they were US$605 million, Shale24 calculated.
Fuel and lubricant imports were small at US$181 million, up 3.5% from a year earlier, or about US$6 million more. Shale24 reports that Argentina bought no diesel or gasoline abroad in the month.
On the broader chapter 27 measure of mineral fuels in the customs nomenclature, the September balance was a surplus of US$1.441 billion. A year earlier it was US$692 million.
Nine Months of Energy Surplus Beat All of 2025
From January to September 2026 the energy balance was a surplus of US$9.427 billion, which already exceeds the US$7.815 billion of the whole of 2025 by US$1.612 billion. That is about 44% of the cumulative national goods surplus of US$21.198 billion.
Over the same nine months energy exports totalled US$12.452 billion, or 16.1% of all goods exports, while energy imports were US$3.025 billion. Liquefied natural gas at US$867 million and electricity at US$729 million lead those imports, which Shale24 links to winter demand.
A report by Fundación Libertad, cited by Infobae, puts the fuel surplus of the last twelve months at US$11.071 billion, or 45.3% of a goods surplus of US$24.460 billion. Infobae adds that such a weight has no precedent in the INDEC series, which starts in 2004.
Where Argentina’s Energy Dollars Come From
Neuquén Province shipped US$1.003 billion of fuel and energy in September, or 56.3% of the national total, in Shale24’s reading of INDEC data. INDEC changed how it assigns the province of origin this year, so comparisons by province with 2025 are not like for like.
Argentine oil output averaged a record 939,422 barrels a day in September, up 14% from a year earlier, Infobae reported from official data. Vaca Muerta supplied about 670,000 of those barrels, or 71%.
President Javier Milei told the AOG Patagonia 2026 oil and gas fair in Neuquén city on Monday that Argentina is “a few steps” from one million barrels a day. Vaca Muerta averaged about 310,000 barrels a day in 2023, he said, and passed 670,000 in August 2026.
Milei credited the end of the “barril criollo” domestic crude pricing scheme with starting the change, and said the old model left energy trade in deficits of up to US$5 billion a year. Those are the president’s own claims, and we have not checked the historical series.
What It Means for US Readers
Investors who hold YPF shares or Argentine bonds can read a US$1.6 billion monthly energy surplus as a firmer source of dollars for debt payments. Milei said at the same event that about US$25 billion of coming debt maturities are already covered, a claim we have not verified.
Argentina’s country risk, the extra yield investors demand on its dollar bonds, closed on Monday at 675 points, the highest in a year, Diario Río Negro reported. The paper says markets are weighing political uncertainty and the global backdrop more heavily than the export dollars.
Our guides Argentina Natural Resources Explained 2026 and Who Dominates Argentina, Elites and Regions Explained explain the oil, gas and power behind the shale boom. For visitors and residents, the Buenos Aires expat city guide covers day-to-day costs.
Earlier we reported on the record six-month result in Argentina Energy Surplus Hits a Record 7 Billion Dollars in Six Months and on investment in Argentina Approves US$12.24bn Vaca Muerta RIGI Project. Together with this Argentina energy trade surplus report, they track how the shale boom reaches the national accounts.
Oil Prices and Pipelines Decide What Comes Next
Infobae links the export surge to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the escalation between the United States, Israel and Iran in late February, which it says the International Energy Agency calls the largest oil supply disruption on record. Refiners in Asia looked for other suppliers, and Argentina emerged as a competitive option.
Thailand is the third-largest buyer of Argentine crude this year, with US$602 million from January to August, Infobae says. Singapore, Malaysia and Vietnam, which recorded no purchases of Argentine oil in 2025, together took about US$900 million.
Transport is one of the main bottlenecks, and the Vaca Muerta Oil Sur pipeline due in early 2027 would carry 190,000 barrels a day at first from Neuquén to Punta Colorada in Río Negro Province. The Rosario Stock Exchange estimates that energy exports could pass US$18.5 billion in 2027 once it runs, Infobae reports.
Shale24 notes that some industry voices warn the current price window will not last forever. A fall in oil prices would shrink export values even if volumes keep growing.
What Is Not Known
INDEC’s own release could not be opened for this report, because its website serves only a script shell instead of the document. The US$1.6 billion energy balance is the Energy Secretariat’s measure, and our own subtraction of US$181 million from US$1.781 billion matches it.
Argentine outlets differ on some secondary figures, such as the growth of nine-month energy exports, which two outlets put at 56.6% and another at 53.6%, so this report leaves that figure out. We also do not state that September set a monthly record for the energy balance, because the sources reviewed do not establish it.
It is not known how long oil prices will stay high or when new pipeline capacity will open. The next monthly INDEC trade report will show whether energy keeps supplying about half of the surplus.
Frequently Asked Questions
How big was Argentina’s energy trade surplus in September 2026?
It was US$1.6 billion, from fuel and energy exports of US$1.781 billion less fuel imports of US$181 million. That equals 53.8% of the national goods surplus of US$2.976 billion.
How much has Argentina earned from energy trade in 2026?
The energy balance was a surplus of US$9.427 billion from January to September, above the US$7.815 billion of all 2025. It is about 44% of the national goods surplus of US$21.198 billion.
Who buys Argentina’s energy exports?
The United States is the largest buyer so far this year at US$3.046 billion from January to September, followed by Chile at US$2.304 billion. Asian buyers such as Thailand have also grown, Infobae reports.
What is Vaca Muerta?
Vaca Muerta is a shale oil and gas formation in the Neuquén Basin, located mostly in Neuquén Province. Infobae reports that it supplies about 71% of Argentina’s oil output.
What could change the picture?
Lower oil prices would cut export values, while new pipeline capacity from early 2027 could raise volumes. The next INDEC trade reports will show which effect dominates.
Sources: Infobae, 19 October 2026; iProfesional, 20 October 2026; Shale24, 19 October 2026; Diario Río Negro, 19 October 2026; Comercio y Justicia, 20 October 2026; INDEC, statistics office of Argentina.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief