Analysts Lower Mexico’s Growth Forecast to 1.17% Under Sheinbaum

As Claudia Sheinbaum steps into her role as Mexico’s leader, analysts are adjusting their growth expectations for the economy.

The latest survey from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) reveals a projected growth rate of 1.17% for her first year in office. This figure is a notable reduction from earlier forecasts.

Previously, analysts had raised their outlook for 2025 to 1.23%. However, the current projection significantly contrasts with the government’s more optimistic view, which anticipates growth between 2% and 2.3%.

This downward revision reflects broader concerns about economic stability. In recent months, various institutions, including Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Analytics, have lowered their forecasts.

This shift reflects uncertainties surrounding U.S. policies under President Donald Trump. For example, Standard and Poor’s adjusted its growth forecast from 1.5% to 1.2%, while Moody‘s cut its estimate from 1.3% to 0.6%.

In their latest assessments, analysts highlighted governance as a key barrier to growth, though the concern has slightly decreased from previous surveys. Public safety remains a pressing issue within this context.

External economic conditions have also gained attention among analysts, now recognized by 21% of respondents as a significant concern.

On the inflation front, expectations indicate a year-end rate of 3.86% for 2025, slightly up from the earlier estimate of 3.84%. Core inflation is projected at 3.68%, excluding the most volatile prices.

Additionally, analysts foresee a minor decrease in the exchange rate, predicting it will settle at 20.69 pesos per dollar compared to the previous estimate of 20.71 pesos.

Understanding these adjustments is crucial for anyone interested in Mexico‘s economic future. As Sheinbaum begins her term, these figures highlight the challenges she faces.

In short, they underscore the need for effective governance and stability to navigate an uncertain economic landscape.