Alpek Earnings Outlook Rises to US$990M
The Alpek earnings outlook for 2026 rose to US$990 million after a US$140 million third-quarter profit and lower debt at the Mexican chemical group.
MEXICO · COMPANY RESULTS
Key Facts
- The country Mexico is a North American country of about 134 million people and one of the largest trading partners of the United States.
- The company Alpek is a petrochemical group based in Monterrey that makes the plastic resin used in drink bottles, polypropylene and expandable polystyrene.
- What happened On 21 October 2026 the Alpek earnings outlook rose to US$990 million of comparable EBITDA from a range of US$750 million to US$800 million.
- The numbers Behind the Alpek earnings outlook, third-quarter revenue was US$2.18 billion, up 31% in a year, and shareholder profit was US$140 million against a US$44 million loss.
- The debt Net debt was US$1.72 billion, which is 1.8 times a year of EBITDA, down from 4.0 times a year earlier.
- The catch Cash flow after investments was only US$5 million because US$226 million went into working capital.
- Power Index Mexico ranks 2nd of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 71.4 points (October 2026 edition).
Alpek, a Mexican petrochemical group, raised its Alpek earnings outlook for 2026 to US$990 million of EBITDA on Wednesday 21 October 2026. The new figure is about 24% above the top of the US$750 million to US$800 million range it gave earlier.
For US readers the news matters because Alpek makes plastic resin for American bottlers and runs plants in North America. The company says disruption in global trade from the Middle East conflict is keeping PET margins high.
Third-Quarter Profit Swings From Loss to Gain
Alpek earned US$140 million for its shareholders in the three months to 30 September, against a loss of US$44 million a year earlier. Earnings came to US$0.07 per share, and consolidated net income including minority owners was US$151 million (Ps 2.6 billion, at the company’s own conversion).
Revenue reached US$2.18 billion (Ps 37.6 billion), which is 31% more than a year earlier and 1% more than in the second quarter. Operating income was US$229 million, compared with just US$9 million in the third quarter of 2025.
What EBITDA Says About the Quarter
EBITDA means earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation, a common gauge of cash earned from operations. Alpek’s comparable EBITDA, which strips out inventory gains and one-off items, was US$276 million, double the US$137 million of a year earlier.
That was 18% below the second quarter, when comparable EBITDA peaked at US$336 million. Reported EBITDA, which includes a US$27 million inventory adjustment tied to higher raw material prices, came to US$303 million.
Shipments rose 4% over the year to 1.17 million tons and were flat from the second quarter. Roughly 65% of sales came from outside Mexico, which is why the US dollar drives the group’s results.
Polyester Carries the Profit
The polyester unit, which makes the PET resin used in drink bottles and food packaging, earned a comparable EBITDA of US$205 million. That is 134% more than a year earlier and about three quarters of the group total.
The plastics and chemicals unit, which includes polypropylene and foam polystyrene, added US$62 million, up 32% over the year. Alpek says it is the only producer of polypropylene in Mexico.
Cash Flow and Debt
Free cash flow from operations was only US$5 million in the quarter. A total of US$226 million went into working capital, mainly because of the higher pricing environment, and Alpek paid US$31 million in dividends.
Net debt of US$1.72 billion was 3% above the second quarter and 7% below a year earlier. Stronger twelve-month earnings cut the ratio of net debt to EBITDA to 1.8 times from 2.2 times, under the company’s 2.0 to 2.5 times target.
The Alpek Earnings Outlook for the Rest of 2026
The new Alpek earnings outlook of US$990 million compares with US$762 million of comparable EBITDA in the first nine months. That implies about US$228 million for the fourth quarter, lower than the US$276 million just posted.
Alpek expects PET margins of US$225 a ton in the fourth quarter, up from its earlier assumption of US$170 to US$200. It also assumes ocean freight to South America of US$200 a ton and an exchange rate of 18.00 pesos to the US dollar.
Index Return and Market Backdrop
In September Alpek returned to the S&P/BMV IPC, the index of the 35 largest and most traded stocks in Mexico. Chief executive Jorge Young said the move should widen its investor base and lift trading volumes.
The peso traded at about 18.63 to the US dollar on 22 October, weaker than the 18.00 rate Alpek uses for planning. Readers can follow the wider market in the Rio Times Mexico market report of 21 October, and the company’s Company Intelligence profile lists its background.
What It Means for US Readers
US makers of bottled drinks buy PET resin priced off Asian margins and shipping costs, so the Alpek earnings outlook is a price signal. Alpek says supply chain disruption and better freight rates favor its North American plants, which supply customers close to home.
Investors who hold Alpek through its Mexican listing should note that profit depends on margins the company itself expects to fade. A planned drop in the fourth quarter and weak cash flow are the points to watch in the coming months.
What Is Not Known
Alpek does not say how long the Middle East conflict will keep PET margins and ocean freight rates this high. The Alpek earnings outlook rests on that, and its fourth-quarter assumptions already point lower, but real prices could differ.
The company gives no timing for any sale of non-strategic assets, which its outlook excludes and which it says could add upside. How much of the US$226 million tied up in working capital returns as cash in the fourth quarter is also open.
More: Mexico news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Alpek announce on 21 October 2026?
Alpek published third-quarter results and raised its 2026 comparable EBITDA outlook to US$990 million from US$750 million to US$800 million. Net income for shareholders was US$140 million.
What does Alpek make?
Alpek, based in Monterrey, makes PET resin for drink bottles, polypropylene, foam polystyrene and specialty chemicals. About 65% of its sales come from outside Mexico.
Is the Alpek earnings outlook a profit forecast?
No, EBITDA is earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation, so it sits above net profit. Alpek paid US$52 million in net financial costs and US$27 million in income tax in the third quarter.
How strong is Alpek’s balance sheet?
Net debt was US$1.72 billion at 30 September, equal to 1.8 times twelve-month EBITDA. That is below the company’s own target range of 2.0 to 2.5 times.
Where can US investors follow Alpek?
Alpek trades on the Mexican Stock Exchange under the ticker ALPEKA and holds a place in the S&P/BMV IPC index. It scheduled a webcast for investors on 22 October at 11:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
Sources: Alpek, 3Q26 Results (company release), 21 October 2026; Alpek, 3T26 Reporte (informe en espanol), 21 October 2026.
In depth
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
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