Whoever wins the elections in Brazil will set the pace in Mercosur

The presidential elections in Brazil are one of the focal points of interest for Argentina and the other countries of the region due to the economic and commercial direction that could emerge based on the candidate who wins, since it is the most powerful market in the region and, according to specialists, the one that “sets the course” of Mercosur.

Hence the importance of the electoral contest today, polarized by the figures of the leader of the Workers’ Party (PT), Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and the current president Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party – PL).

Julieta Zelicovich, master in International Trade Relations, in statements to Télam, said that “trade in a Lula da Silva government can be a means to preserve and recover Latin America’s social and integrationist agendas”.

He also considered that with Lula da Silva, there could be “greater political closeness between the presidents, aimed at dialogue and cooperation in all the situations in which Argentina and Brazil dispute over trade policies, and also to have a more oiled negotiating table”.

Regarding the Argentina-Brazil trade link, Zelicovich remarked that “looking back over the last ten years, the trade relationship is becoming less and less important for the Brazilian side” and -he continued- “this generates different views, especially in what we have in common, which is Mercosur”.

For his part, the director of the consulting firm Abeceb, economist Gustavo Perego, remarked that Bolsonaro “will ask Mercosur partners to continue moving forward with the opening agreements”.

“With Bolsonaro, we will see a much stronger and faster Brazil in the opening of new markets, second generation agreements (phytosanitary, standards, investment), but they will ask Mercosur to open up more in protection”, he predicted.

“In the case of Lula, everyone believes that there will be a policy of greater coordination with the countries of the region and that this opening process will be slowed down”, said Perego.

Likewise, he asserted that “Brazil will always lead by weight and will set the course because when Brazil wants, free trade agreements happen and when they don’t, they don’t: whoever wins the election in Brazil will set Mercosur’s times”, said the economist.

On the other hand, he considered that “the work that Daniel Scioli has done in the Embassy in Brazil is outstanding because he has understood the logic of power in Brasilia with Bolsonaro and that has helped a lot to have a good relationship between the countries”.

This economic and commercial link “has been consolidated for decades, which means that “there may be changes of government, but the commercial logic within the companies and multinationals is maintained,” he pointed out.

The chief economist of FIDE, Nicolás Zeolla, said that “given the weight of Brazil as a central industrial partner of Mercosur, Argentina has a cycle of economic activity, especially industrial, highly correlated” with that country, so that “a growing Brazil is a great boost for our economy,” he pointed out.

“In terms of Mercosur, Brazil is pending to resolve the free trade agreement with the European Union”, stated Zeolla, who remarked that “Bolsonaro is an advocate and promoter of that agreement and other bilateral agreements that would go against the spirit of the block, while “with Lula da Silva, we would return to a regional cooperation harmony”.

Another specialist consulted, Tomás Bontempo, a graduate in International Relations from the Universidad del Salvador, said that “Bolsonaro’s foreign policy turned Brazil towards de-Americanization, making the distancing from Latin America one of the axes of his hyper-ideologized foreign policy”.

He remarked that Bolsonaro “does not consider the regional market important, nor does he consider that the country needs its regional partners to play the role of a global player”.

With Lula, on the other hand, Brazil “could resume a more active role in the region with measures aimed at prioritizing South-South cooperation”.

One guideline for this is to “re-launch the strategic alliance with Argentina,” the graduate said.

“In commercial terms, there is a will to build a strategic relationship with Argentina and the centrifugal impulses generated by the growing trade links with Southeast Asia,” he explained.

With information from El Economista