Weekly Economic Updates: GDP in Peru, Mexico, Chile; Mexico’s Inflation

This week brings crucial economic updates for Peru, Mexico, and Chile, with their first-quarter GDP figures set for release

In Mexico, experts predict the final first-quarter GDP figure will confirm weak growth.

However, March data might indicate recovering activity and stronger growth in the second quarter.

In Chile, strong first-quarter GDP growth may lead the central bank to slow easing, cutting rates to 6% with potential for further reductions.

In Peru, first-quarter GDP data will likely show continued recovery in activity and domestic demand after last year’s downturn, according to analysts.

In Argentina, economic analysts anticipate that March activity data will likely indicate a significant drop in Q1 GDP.

It is expected that the president will meet with most governors on May 25 to seek support for his reform package.

Argentina

On Tuesday, May 21, they will publish the Economic Activity Index for March 2024. Experts forecasts a monthly variation of -1.0% and an annual change of -6.9%.

This would bring the three-month average to -3.6% quarter-over-quarter and -4.8% year-over-year for the first quarter.

Previous data showed declines in key activity sectors: manufacturing fell 6.3% month-over-month, construction dropped 14.2%, and mining, which had been increasing, fell 2.8%.

Chile

On Monday, May 20, officials will publish the first-quarter GDP for 2024.

Experts project a 2.5% year-over-year growth, aligning with a 2.0% quarterly increase after a 0.1% rise in the fourth quarter of 2023.

On Thursday, May 23, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Meeting will occur.

Experts expect a rate cut to 6.0% from 6.5%, following previous cuts of 75 basis points in April and 100 basis points in January.

This would total a 525 basis point reduction since the easing cycle began in July.

Colombia

On Tuesday, May 21, officials will release the March 2024 trade balance.

The will likely showing an increase in the deficit to $1.54 billion from February’s $763 million and the previous year’s $1.08 billion.

The data suggests a slow recovery in activity and domestic demand. Export revenues rose to $3.83 billion, while imports increased to $5.37 billion, according to preliminary figures.

Mexico

On Monday, May 20, retail sales for March 2024 will be published. They likely rose 2.1% year-over-year, affected by fewer working days due to Easter holidays.

This implies another monthly increase following a 0.4% rise, according to Hernández and Dupita.

On Thursday, May 23, the final first-quarter GDP for 2024 will be announced.

Experts estimate growth revised up from 1.6% to 1.7% year-over-year, consistent with a 0.2% quarterly increase after a 0.1% rise in the fourth quarter.

The same day, they will reveal the Economic Activity Index for March 2024, projecting a 1.05% year-over-year decline.

Seasonally adjusted forecasts imply a 0.8% month-over-month rise after a 1.4% increase in February.

They will also release the Consumer Price Index inflation data for early May 2024, with economists expecting a 4.70% year-over-year rise, up from 4.67% in late April.

Additionally, the Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting minutes will be available.

Analysts anticipate a hawkish tone, detailing the maintenance of the 11% rate after a 25 basis point cut in March.

On Friday, May 24, they will publish the April 2024 trade balance, likely showing a $1.52 billion surplus.

Peru

On Thursday, May 23, the first-quarter GDP for 2024 will be released.

Analysts estimate a 1.4% year-over-year growth, implying a 0.5% quarterly increase after a 0.4% rise in the fourth quarter.

Growth will slow in the future, remaining below pre-pandemic levels, accorrding to some  experts.

They cite rising unemployment and prolonged political uncertainty as ongoing challenges.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error

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