Weekly Economic LatAm Agenda: Inflation Data in Brazil and Argentina; Interest Rate Decision in Peru

The week of March 10-14, 2025, features a packed economic calendar for Latin America, with key inflation data releases in Brazil and Argentina, a monetary policy decision in Peru, and important economic indicators from Mexico and Colombia.

Brazil: Inflation Expected to Breach Target Ceiling

Brazil will release its Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for February on Wednesday, March 12. According to Bloomberg Economics analysts Adriana Dupita and Felipe Hernández, inflation is expected to exceed 5% in February, surpassing the central bank’s target ceiling once again.

The analysts anticipate that seasonal factors and reduced electricity credits will drive an unusually high monthly inflation rate. These forecasts align with expectations for core inflation in the 0.6%-0.7% range, with diffusion levels close to January’s.

Brazil’s inflation has been trending upward in recent months, with persistent inflationary pressure complicating the central bank‘s monetary policy outlook for the remainder of the year.

Argentina: Inflation Progress Stalling Despite Slower Peso Depreciation

Argentina will publish its Consumer Price Index for February on Friday, March 14. Despite slowing the crawling peg to 1% in February, monthly inflation is expected to stagnate according to analysts.

This comes after Argentina achieved significant progress in its disinflation efforts, with annual inflation falling to levels not seen in years. Monthly inflation had decreased to its lowest rate since mid-2020.

Analysts warn that food inflation may accelerate in February, driven by rising meat prices. Additionally, they note that continued growth in private sector wages and the effects of slower peso depreciation will likely cause service inflation to outpace goods inflation, continuing a trend observed over the past year.

Peru: Central Bank Expected to Hold Rates Steady

The Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) will hold its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, March 13. Experts anticipate the bank will maintain its benchmark interest rate for a second consecutive meeting.

“The data shows room for cuts, but it’s not necessary to adopt more expansive measures,” according to Bloomberg Economics analysts. Peru’s inflation has been within the central bank’s target range.

Peru’s economy is showing strong momentum, with projections indicating it will achieve significant GDP growth in 2025. The central bank has previously indicated that its interest rate is approaching the neutral level, and future adjustments will depend on new information regarding inflation and its determinants.

Mexico: Industrial Production Facing Continued Challenges

Mexico will release industrial production data for January on Thursday, March 13. Analysts project a year-over-year decline, though seasonally adjusted figures may show a small monthly rebound following December’s sharp contraction.

The Mexican industrial sector has been struggling, with output shrinking significantly in recent months. Economic forecasts for Mexico remain cautious, with uncertainty regarding future relations with the United States creating significant headwinds for economic activity.

Colombia: Retail Sales Growth Expected to Continue Despite Challenges

Colombia’s January retail sales and industrial production figures will be published on Friday, March 14. Retail sales are expected to grow year-over-year, though this would represent a monthly decline excluding automobiles after strong growth in the previous months.

This forecast follows a period of retail sales expansion after months of contraction. The Colombian economy has shown mixed dynamics as investment recovers while consumption softens.

Industrial production will contract year-over-year in January, driven by weakness in the mining and manufacturing sectors. According to analysts, while lower interest rates may provide some relief to the economy, populist government policies continue to weigh on Colombia’s economic outlook.

Regional Economic Context

Latin American economies are navigating a complex global environment in 2025, with rising challenges including U.S. trade policy uncertainty and varying fiscal positions across countries. Regional growth is expected to continue, supported by ongoing disinflation and monetary easing cycles.

Despite these headwinds, the region’s resilience is evident in continued progress on inflation control and selective growth opportunities. This is particularly true for countries that benefit from strong commodity exports and infrastructure investment.