Venezuela Stays Outside OPEC+ Quotas as Targets Hold

VENEZUELA · ENERGY

OPEC+ kept its November oil output targets unchanged on Sunday 4 October 2026. It is the second month in a row without a change. Venezuela is not among the seven countries that decided, but the price they are defending is the one Venezuela sells into.

Brent crude was about US$102 a barrel on Friday 2 October (RT spot series; The National reported a settlement of US$102.25). For readers in the United States, steady targets mean no extra official barrels are coming, at a time when Gulf exports are disrupted.

What the seven decided

The seven core members met online and decided to “maintain September 2026 required production for November 2026”, according to The National. They are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman.

TASS published the November required-production levels. They are 10.478 million bpd for Saudi Arabia, 9.949 million for Russia, 4.431 million for Iraq, 2.676 million for Kuwait, 1.628 million for Kazakhstan, 1.007 million for Algeria and 841,000 for Oman. Together that is about 31 million bpd.

The group raised its targets each month from April to September. In September it finished unwinding 1.65 million bpd of voluntary cuts from 2023, then paused the increases in October. A further 2 million bpd of cuts agreed in 2022 stays in place until the end of the year, The National reported.

Targets are not barrels

A quota is a ceiling on paper, not a measure of what reaches ships. The Moscow Times reported that the seven pumped about 25 million bpd in August. That was 630,000 bpd more than in July, but roughly 5 million bpd below February, before the war involving Iran began on 28 February.

Gulf producers are pumping well below their targets because exports have been disrupted. The National reported that the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about one-fifth of global crude and liquefied natural gas, has been effectively closed since fighting began.

OPEC+ also warned that actions undermining energy supply security can increase market volatility. The Moscow Times noted that output increases this year have been “largely on paper”. In plain terms, the group can freeze targets, but the war is what is holding barrels back.

Why Venezuela is outside the decision

Venezuela is a founding OPEC member, but it does not have a production target to hold. Under the Declaration of Cooperation, the framework that links OPEC and its partners, Venezuela, Iran and Libya are exempt from quotas (US Energy Information Administration; Semafor). The exemption reflects sanctions or conflict that disrupted their output. Semafor wrote in September that there is an understanding quotas will not apply until production has sufficiently recovered.

So this decision does not change a Venezuelan allowance. It changes the market Venezuela sells into. Reuters shipping data, published by the BOE Report, showed Venezuelan exports of 1.17 million bpd in August, almost unchanged from July.

The destinations shifted. Shipments to the United States fell to 553,000 bpd from a record 786,000 bpd in July. Exports to India rose 66% to 297,000 bpd, and deliveries to Europe almost tripled to about 260,000 bpd.

The same data pointed to operating strain. Tanker queues and waiting times at Venezuelan terminals grew in August because of terminal deterioration, crude quality problems and a late-July blackout at facilities of the state company PDVSA. Venezuela also imported about 166,000 bpd of fuel, mostly US naphtha used to dilute its heavy crude.

For earlier context, see our fact-check on what Venezuela actually produces for the US and our report on output returning above one million barrels a day.

What it means for you

If you buy fuel or hold energy shares in the United States, the message is that official supply is not growing. With Brent near US$102, a pause in quota increases removes one possible source of relief, although the quotas were never the binding constraint.

Venezuela is one of the few suppliers whose heavy crude suits US Gulf Coast refineries, which is why the August drop in US-bound cargoes to 553,000 bpd is worth watching. If those flows recover, they would add supply outside OPEC+ quota discipline.

The picture cuts both ways. Firm prices help Caracas, which needs revenue. Higher prices also hurt importing economies, and a ceasefire or a reopened Hormuz could ease them quickly.

What is not known

The seven have not said whether the pause will last beyond November. The Moscow Times reported that output adjustments are unlikely before 2027, pending a review of members’ production capacity that has been delayed by the uncertainty in the Middle East.

We have not found a published Venezuelan production figure for September, so this article does not give one. Reported export levels and official production measures can differ, because sources count condensates and natural gas liquids differently.

What comes next

The seven will meet online again on Sunday 1 November 2026 to review the market. World Oil reported that a full ministerial meeting and the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee are set for Sunday 29 November 2026.

Watch three things before then: whether Hormuz traffic recovers, whether Venezuelan loadings to the United States rebuild from August’s low, and whether Brent holds above US$100. A steadier Gulf would let quota decisions matter again.

Is Venezuela part of the OPEC+ group that kept November targets?

No. The decision was taken by seven countries: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman. Venezuela is an OPEC member but is exempt from production quotas, together with Iran and Libya.

What exactly did OPEC+ decide on 4 October 2026?

The seven countries agreed to maintain September 2026 required production for November 2026. That is the second month in a row without an increase, and the combined target is about 31 million barrels per day.

When is the next OPEC+ meeting?

The seven countries meet online on 1 November 2026. World Oil reported that a full ministerial meeting and the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee are scheduled for 29 November 2026.

Why are actual barrels below the targets?

Gulf producers have been pumping well below their targets because exports have been disrupted by the war involving Iran. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since fighting began on 28 February, according to The National.

How much oil does Venezuela export to the United States?

Reuters shipping data published by the BOE Report put August shipments to the US at about 553,000 barrels per day, down from a record 786,000 in July. Total exports were about 1.17 million barrels per day.

Sources: TASS, The National, The Moscow Times, World Oil, BOE Report (Reuters data), Semafor, US Energy Information Administration, RT (Brent spot, 2 October 2026). Retrieved 4 October 2026.

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief

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