Tarcísio de Freitas’ High-Stakes Gamble to Free Bolsonaro

Brazil faces a rare political maneuver as Governor Tarcísio de Freitas of São Paulo leads a controversial amnesty drive for participants in the January 8 insurrection and for former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Sources confirm that Bolsonaro’s own family members, including Eduardo and Carlos, pressured Tarcísio to champion this deeply unpopular measure to prevent Bolsonaro’s imprisonment.

Tarcísio shifted his stance only after public rebukes from Eduardo and Carlos Bolsonaro, who labeled him a “rat” for wavering.

Facing criticism, he announced his support for amnesty in Congress, aligning with the Centrão bloc that demands Bolsonaro’s backing for Tarcísio’s 2026 ambitions.

Polling shows widespread rejection of this amnesty. A December Datafolha survey found 62 percent of Brazilians oppose pardoning those involved in January 8, while only 35 percent support it.

Genial/Quaest polling in April recorded 56 percent opposition and 46.9 percent support. Even among Bolsonaro’s base, only about 45 percent back a pardon.

Tarcísio’s embrace of this measure contrasts with his earlier appeal to centrist voters. Analysts warn that antigolpismo—a broader rejection of anti-democratic actors—now outweighs antipetismo.

A March Atlas poll reported 16.5 percent of respondents identified as anti-Bolsonaro versus 8.6 percent as anti-PT. An August Genial/Quaest survey found 47 percent feared a Bolsonaro comeback, while 39 percent worried about Lula’s reelection.

On August 31, Tarcísio pledged in a regional newspaper interview that his first presidential act would be to grant Bolsonaro a full pardon. Legal experts note that the Supreme Court’s previous rulings and a December 2024 presidential decree explicitly bar pardons for attacks on democratic institutions.

This pledge handed President Lula a potent campaign issue and highlighted the constitutional hurdles facing any pardon. In Brasília, Tarcísio met with Chamber President Hugo Motta and other senior leaders to press for an amnesty bill.

The measure cleared the lower house but faces a tougher Senate, where President Davi Alcolumbre wields the agenda and enjoys Lula’s support. Even if it passes, a presidential veto and likely Supreme Court challenges loom.

Tarcísio’s strategy risks linking his image indelibly to convicts’ release. His approval ratings already show strain: from May to August, unfavorable opinions among those who know him rose from 33 percent to 39 percent, while favorable ratings held at about 27 percent.

This conflict reveals a stark choice for Brazilian right-wing politics. Tarcísio bets that loyalty to Bolsonaro secures Centrão support and family favor.

Yet public sentiment favors rule of law over political pardon. As the amnesty fight extends into the 2026 campaign, voters will judge whether safeguarding one leader justifies sidelining the nation’s democratic norms.

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