Strong Taxes, Weak Oil: The Tug-of-War Defining Mexico’s 2025 Finances

Mexico entered late 2025 with two truths at once: the tax engine is humming, but oil—the country’s old budget anchor—is slipping.

From January to August, total public revenues grew 2.6% year on year yet still missed the plan by roughly 118 billion pesos (about $6.45 billion). The shortfall came from oil, not taxes.

Oil revenues reached about 598.6 billion pesos (around $32.75 billion), down 15.8% from a year earlier and far below what the government programmed. This wasn’t because crude was cheap.

The Mexican mix averaged about $63 per barrel, higher than the $59 assumed in the budget. The problem was volume: lower production and fewer exports as more barrels were diverted to domestic refining. When fewer barrels leave the ground or the coast, fewer pesos reach the treasury.

Taxes told the opposite story. Collections rose 6.5% and beat plan by about 88.7 billion pesos. Income tax increased on the back of more formal jobs and steady wage gains.

Value-added tax advanced as consumers kept spending and a competitive peso helped. Excise taxes underdelivered, but import-linked revenues jumped 24.5% in real terms after tariff adjustments for countries without trade deals, tighter customs checks, and new rules for low-value parcels—changes felt by e-commerce and traditional importers alike.

Beyond taxes and oil, non-tax revenues were up, social-security contributions inched higher, and the state power utility’s reported income fell.

Mexico’s Budget Still Tied to Pemex’s Performance

The story behind the story is simple: Mexico’s budget is still highly sensitive to Pemex’s day-to-day realities—how much it produces, refines, and ships—more than to headline oil prices. Even a solid tax machine cannot fully cushion weak oil volumes.

That matters because a revenue miss forces trade-offs: trim spending, reshuffle priorities, or borrow more. For readers outside Mexico, the takeaway is familiar.

Countries in the middle of industrial policy shifts often run into friction: what supports domestic refining can weaken export cash flow; what modernizes tax enforcement can raise the compliance bar for households and businesses.

Mexico is navigating that tension in real time—and the next moves at Pemex and the border may decide how tight the 2025 budget feels.

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