Southern Africa · Energy
Key Facts
—The plan: South Africa’s Integrated Resource Plan 2025 sets out about 105 gigawatts of new generation capacity by 2039.
—The wires: Roughly 14,500 kilometres of new transmission infrastructure, with about R440 billion (about US$27.5 billion) of transmission investment over the next decade.
—The total: More than R2.2 trillion of investment opportunity through 2039, about US$137 billion at prevailing rates.
—The near term: To 2030 the plan envisages roughly 11,270 MW of solar photovoltaic, 7,340 MW of wind and 6,000 MW of gas-to-power, alongside 3,100 MW of storage and 5,400 MW of distributed generation. The 5,200 MW of nuclear sits later in the plan, from 2036.
—The evidence of the bottleneck: The most recent renewable procurement round under REIPPPP, the government’s renewable energy auction programme — Bid Window 7, whose preferred bidders were named in December 2024, awarded no onshore wind at all against a 3.2 gigawatt allocation, because there is no transmission in the windiest provinces.
—Not Chinese-financed: South Africa took the plan to Beijing in August to court investment. No Chinese funding commitment for the programme has been announced.
The South Africa grid plan requires about 105 gigawatts of new generation and 14,500 kilometres of new transmission line by 2039, at a cost above R2.2 trillion, about US$137 billion. The constraint is not turbines or panels but wires, and a recent auction proved it by awarding no wind at all.
What the South Africa grid plan actually says
The document is the Integrated Resource Plan 2025 — the IRP, South Africa’s statutory electricity planning framework. Cabinet approved it on 15 October 2025 and it was gazetted on 28 October, so it is in force. It sets out an investment opportunity of more than R2.2 trillion through 2039, roughly US$137 billion.
The generation target is about 105 gigawatts of new capacity by 2039. That is an enormous number for a system whose installed capacity has hovered around 50 gigawatts.
The near-term mix is specific. To 2030 the plan envisages roughly 11,270 megawatts of solar photovoltaic, 7,340 megawatts of wind, 6,000 megawatts of gas-to-power and 5,200 megawatts of nuclear.
By 2039 the shape changes: about 25,000 megawatts of utility-scale solar, 16,000 megawatts of distributed generation, 34,000 megawatts of onshore wind, 8,500 megawatts of battery storage, 16,000 megawatts of gas and the same 5,200 megawatts of nuclear.
The auction that awarded nothing
The clearest evidence that transmission is the binding constraint came from procurement. The most recent renewable round awarded no onshore wind whatsoever against an allocation of 3.2 gigawatts.
The reason was mixed. Only eight wind projects totalling 1,692 MW were submitted against that 3,200 MW allocation, so the round was undersubscribed, and Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa said the bids that did arrive were priced too high. Grid capacity was the backdrop rather than the stated cause. The clearer example is the previous round, Bid Window 6, where 23 wind projects bid against the same 3,200 MW allocation and none were selected — there, the grid was the reason given.
South Africa’s best wind resource sits in the Eastern and Northern Cape, a long way from the industrial load in Gauteng. The existing grid was built to move coal-fired power out of Mpumalanga, which is the wrong direction.
That is why the plan carries 14,500 kilometres of new transmission, with about R440 billion (about US$27.5 billion) of transmission investment over the next decade. Without the lines, the megawatts are theoretical.
Where the money is supposed to come from
Eskom, the state power utility, cannot fund this. The utility is carrying its own debt burden and is owed more than R110 billion (about US$6.9 billion) by municipalities, so the transmission build depends on private capital and on separating the grid from the generator.
That separation is under way. The transmission business has been carved out as a separate entity, the National Transmission Company South Africa, which is the precondition for independent transmission projects.
South Africa has been marketing the opportunity abroad. In August a South African delegation attended an electricity and energy investment conference at POWERCHINA’s headquarters in Beijing.
It is important to be precise about that. This was investment promotion rather than a financing package, and no Chinese funding commitment for the R2.2 trillion (about US$137 billion) programme has been announced.
Anyone describing the plan as Chinese-backed is running ahead of the evidence. Courting capital in Beijing is not the same as receiving it.
Why the numbers are worth taking seriously anyway
South Africa has a poor record of converting energy plans into steel in the ground. Previous iterations of this document slipped repeatedly, and the country spent the better part of a decade in rolling blackouts as a result.
What is different now is that the diagnosis has moved. For years the argument was about generation, and specifically about how much coal, gas and nuclear to build.
The recognition that transmission is the constraint is a genuine analytical shift, and it points investment at a segment with predictable regulated returns rather than merchant risk.
For international investors this is the most bankable part of the South African energy story: long-dated, regulated infrastructure attached to a legally mandated plan.
The caveats to carry
This is a plan, not a pipeline. The R2.2 trillion, about US$137 billion, is an investment opportunity, which is a different thing from committed capital.
The nuclear component is politically contested and has been for two decades. A 5,200 megawatt nuclear allocation has appeared in South African planning documents before without producing a reactor.
The plan is styled the Integrated Resource Plan 2025 while running to 2039, which is a source of confusion in secondary coverage. It is not an IRP 2039.
And the underlying problem is unresolved. Until the lines are built, every new renewable auction risks repeating the round that awarded nothing.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the South Africa grid plan?
The Integrated Resource Plan 2025, which sets out about 105 gigawatts of new generation capacity and roughly 14,500 kilometres of new transmission infrastructure by 2039.
How much will it cost?
More than R2.2 trillion of investment opportunity through 2039, about US$137 billion, including roughly R440 billion of transmission investment over the next decade.
Why did a recent wind auction award nothing?
There is no transmission capacity in the provinces with the best wind resource, so no onshore wind was awarded against a 3.2 gigawatt allocation.
Is the programme funded by China?
No Chinese funding commitment has been announced. A South African delegation attended an investment conference at POWERCHINA’s headquarters in Beijing in August 2026 to court investment in the plan.
What is in the near-term mix?
To 2030 the plan envisages roughly 11,270 MW of solar photovoltaic, 7,340 MW of wind and 6,000 MW of gas-to-power, alongside 3,100 MW of storage and 5,400 MW of distributed generation. The 5,200 MW of nuclear sits later in the plan, from 2036.
Connected Coverage
Energy infrastructure is a recurring theme in our pillar Africa: The New Scramble. See also the municipal debt weighing on Eskom, Congo-Brazzaville’s own power ambitions, and more from our Southern Africa hub.
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