Silver Slips, but a Tight Physical Market Holds the Floor
Silver hovered near $48.3 an ounce on Monday morning, easing as the dollar firmed and risk appetite improved after upbeat U.S.–China headlines. On the surface it looks like a routine pullback.
The story behind the story is that October’s surge was driven by unusual tightness in London’s over-the-counter market—episodes where spot metal briefly traded at a premium to futures—so even modest waves of profit-taking now tend to stall before turning into a rout.
The world’s main hubs tell the same tale in different accents. In London, low visible inventories and intermittent backwardation set the tone for any rally.
In New York, Comex December futures traded around $48.2 in quiet overnight dealings after a volatile week. Shanghai’s Ag(T+D) benchmark softened into Friday’s close, reflecting the stronger dollar.
In India, where festival demand typically supports silver, MCX contracts slipped this morning after record prints last week as stretched local premiums met a firmer USD.
Investor flows look like digestion, not capitulation. The iShares Silver Trust ended last week holding roughly 496 million ounces.
Silver Pauses After Rally as Fed Decision Looms
Trading was frenetic early last week—more than 80 million SLV shares changed hands on Tuesday—then cooled into Friday, a pattern consistent with profit-taking after a spike rather than wholesale exit.
Technicals point to a correction inside a larger uptrend. On the four-hour chart, price is testing a rising trendline that has guided October’s advance; momentum is weak but stabilizing.
A clean break below the $47.5–$47.8 shelf would invite a deeper retracement toward the mid-$46s. On the daily chart, the pullback still sits above the 20–50-day moving-average band, with resistance clustered at $48.7–$49.3 and again near $50.
Why it moved today is simple: a firmer dollar and a modest shift to “risk-on” dulled safe-haven demand; residual profit-taking did the rest.
What could flip it quickly is equally simple: any new macro stress, renewed signs of London tightness, or a softer dollar would restore upside momentum.
The near-term swing factor is the Federal Reserve’s mid-week decision; a hawkish read-through would likely extend this tidy, well-behaved correction.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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