South Africa Tourism Misses US$400 Million as Morocco and Tunisia Grow
South Africa · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- —The country South Africa, home to about 65 million people, is Africa’s most industrialised economy, worth about US$430 billion in 2025, a little smaller than Denmark’s.
- —Why it matters Tourism directly employed about 954,000 South Africans in 2024, and long-haul visitors from Europe and North America spend far more per trip than neighbours.
- —Why now A Tourism Trends Report from BDO South Africa, an accounting and advisory firm, reported on 29 September, shows overseas visitors still below their 2019 level.
- —What happened BDO estimates the 2025 shortfall in overseas arrivals cost South Africa R6.5 billion (about US$400 million) in direct tourist spending.
- —The numbers Total arrivals reached 10.5 million in 2025; overseas arrivals from January to July 2026 were still 5 percent below 2019.
- —What it means for you Visitors face fewer direct long-haul flights than before the pandemic; an online visa system, the Electronic Travel Authorisation, launched in August 2026.
- —Still open BDO has not published its method, so the US$400 million is an estimate of spending missed, not a measured loss.
South Africa welcomed more tourists in 2025 than before the pandemic, yet the high-spending overseas market has not fully come back. Morocco and Tunisia, closer to Europe, both set records.
South Africa tourism missed out on an estimated R6.5 billion (about US$400 million) in visitor spending in 2025. The estimate comes from BDO South Africa, the local arm of the global accounting and advisory network.
South Africa is the continent’s most industrialised economy and a long-haul favourite for safaris, Cape Town and the winelands. Its biggest overseas markets include Britain, Germany and the United States.
Rand figures here are converted at R16.41 per US dollar, the open.er-api.com rate on 30 September 2026.
What the US$400 million estimate measures
BDO says the 2025 overseas shortfall alone cost R6.5 billion (about US$400 million) in foreign direct tourism spending. That is before any wider knock-on effects on the economy.
The shortfall refers to overseas arrivals staying below their pre-pandemic level of 2019. BDO has not published how it priced the missing visitors, so the number is an estimate, not an audited loss.
It is also not money that Morocco or Tunisia took from South Africa. It measures spending that South Africa would likely have received if overseas travel had fully recovered.
For scale, Statistics South Africa put international visitor spending at R113.9 billion (about US$6.9 billion) in 2024. That was still below the R121.5 billion (about US$7.4 billion) recorded in 2019.
What the arrival numbers actually show
Statistics South Africa, the national statistics agency, recorded 10,498,506 tourist arrivals in 2025. That was 17.7 percent more than in 2024 and 2.6 percent above the 2019 total.
Overseas tourists, meaning visitors from outside Africa, rose 11.9 percent to 2,391,187 in 2025. The bulk of the growth came from neighbouring countries such as Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Lesotho.
For South Africa tourism, the pattern has continued in 2026. BDO’s latest Tourism Trends Report counts 6.6 million international tourists from January to July, up 12 percent on a year earlier.
African visitors made up 5.2 million of those, 17 percent above 2019. Overseas arrivals reached 1.37 million, still 5 percent short of their pre-pandemic level.
Morocco and Tunisia set records
While South Africa’s overseas market lagged, North Africa grew strongly. Morocco’s tourism ministry reported a record 19.8 million arrivals in 2025, a count that includes Moroccans living abroad.
Tunisia also posted a record, with more than 11 million visitors in 2025. Both countries sit a short flight from Europe’s biggest travel markets.
A flight from London to Marrakech takes under four hours, against about 11 hours to Johannesburg or Cape Town. That makes North Africa an easy short break or winter-sun trip for Europeans.
Arrival counts are not a like-for-like comparison, because each country defines visitors differently. The figures do not prove that travellers switched from South Africa to North Africa.
Why overseas visitors are slow to return
BDO points to weak Asian markets. Only 18,000 Chinese tourists visited from January to July 2026, 67 percent below 2019, while Indian arrivals were 49 percent below.
The firm cites limited direct flights and disruption to routes through the Middle East. It also calls for stronger international marketing, an air access development fund and more attention to crime and urban decay.
“A return to the industry of old is unlikely,” said Lee-Anne Bac, a director in advisory services at BDO South Africa. She said industry players must adapt their strategies accordingly.
Bac added that, on current performance, the country is not structured to cope with tougher competition. She made an exception for select destinations such as Cape Town and upmarket game lodges.
Who gains and who loses
Hotels, safari lodges and tour operators lose most when overseas visitors stay away. Long-haul guests tend to stay longer and spend more than regional travellers.
Tourism directly employed an estimated 953,981 people in 2024, or 5.7 percent of all jobs, according to Statistics South Africa. That makes a slow overseas recovery a jobs issue as well as a revenue one.
Accommodation income has also cooled, from 13.7 percent annual growth in March. Investec economist Lara Hodes noted in July that it rose just 2.2 percent year on year in May.
What to watch next
The government wants 750,000 additional international air arrivals by the end of 2027. The Electronic Travel Authorisation, an online visa system, launched in August 2026, after the period covered by the latest data.
The key test is whether overseas arrivals return to their 2019 level in the coming high season. If they do, the South Africa tourism shortfall of 2025 may prove temporary rather than structural.
The wider contest for visitors, trade and capital is part of the story covered in Africa: The New Scramble.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much tourism spending did South Africa miss in 2025?
BDO South Africa estimates the 2025 overseas shortfall cost R6.5 billion (about US$400 million) in direct tourist spending. The firm has not published its method, so the figure is an estimate rather than an audited loss.
Did South Africa’s tourist arrivals fall in 2025?
No, Statistics South Africa recorded 10,498,506 tourist arrivals in 2025, up 17.7 percent on 2024 and 2.6 percent above 2019. The weak spot is overseas visitors, still 5 percent below their 2019 level from January to July 2026.
How do Morocco and Tunisia compare?
Morocco reported a record 19.8 million arrivals in 2025, including Moroccans living abroad, and Tunisia more than 11 million. Both are a short flight from Europe, although each country counts visitors differently.
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