Guaraní surge pits Paraguay’s exporters against the central bank
Paraguay · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- —Exchange rate The dollar trades near 6,000 guaraníes in Asunción, against 7,500 to 8,000 in long-term service-export contracts.
- —Exporter alarm Capex says the dollar fell nearly 20% against the guaraní in the year to July 2026.
- —Central bank The BCP sold record dollar volumes in 2024–25 but has not bought since October 2025.
- —Health strike Doctors want a 76% rise; the government says it would cost about US$100 million.
- —Trade win Twelve meat plants are now cleared to export Paraguayan beef to Chile, says Senacsa.
A stronger currency squeezes exporters, a pay strike squeezes the budget, and beef opens doors in Chile.
Paraguay’s guaraní appreciation became an open political fight on Tuesday 25 August 2026. The exporters’ chamber publicly accused the central bank of abandoning the sector to a cheaper dollar. On the same day, striking doctors marched in Asunción for a 76% pay rise. And the government celebrated twelve meat plants cleared to sell beef to Chile.
Exporters say the guaraní appreciation erases margins
The Cámara Paraguaya de Exportadores, Capex, issued its starkest warning yet on Tuesday 25 August 2026. It said it has flagged the exchange rate since September 2025, with little response from monetary authorities.
The chamber says export margins have practically disappeared under the guaraní appreciation of the past year. Several firms now ship at a loss simply to defend foreign markets that took them years to win.
Small and medium-sized exporters face the gravest risk of all, the chamber’s statement said. When such a firm closes it does not reopen, taking jobs, conquered markets and productive capacity with it.
The dollar fell nearly 20% against the guaraní in the twelve months to July 2026, Capex noted. Over the same period the global DXY dollar index stayed practically flat, making Paraguay an outlier.
Paraguay’s real exchange rate contracted 17% in a year, the sharpest fall recorded since 2011. Exporters earn in dollars but pay much of their costs in guaraníes, so each slide cuts local income.
The chamber warns that plant closures and job losses could follow if nothing changes. It asks for predictability and a return to neutrality in exchange-rate policy.
Capex says the external backdrop is already adverse, with costlier logistics and tariff barriers. Volatile international prices for farm goods add to the pressure on exporters.
An asymmetric central bank, exporters argue
Capex says it does not question inflation targeting or the floating exchange-rate regime. It calls both pillars of the macroeconomic stability that the export sector itself supports.
The complaint is asymmetry in how the Banco Central del Paraguay intervenes in the market. Between April 2024 and March 2025, the BCP sold record annual dollar volumes to contain depreciation.
Since October 2025, the chamber says, the bank has not bought a single dollar. That is precisely the period in which the guaraní appreciation accelerated most sharply.
Exporters now want clear, symmetrical and transparent rules for intervention in both directions. They insist they are not asking anyone to defend an artificial or arbitrary exchange rate.
Service exporters priced long-term contracts at 7,500 to 8,000 guaraníes per dollar and now face a cash market near 6,000. Exchange houses have quoted the dollar at about 5,850 to buy and 6,000 to sell in recent weeks.
The chamber invokes the BCP’s organic charter, which requires balanced market functioning. Interventions, it says, must respect fundamental trends of supply and demand.
The central bank points to fundamentals
The BCP argues the guaraní appreciation reflects solid economic fundamentals rather than official neglect. A recent technical note cites investment-grade ratings from Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s as drivers.
It also cites economic growth of 7% year on year in the first quarter of 2025 and a stronger, better regulated financial system. A record 2026 soybean harvest flooded the market with export dollars, pressing the exchange rate down.
Competitiveness, the bank insists, also depends on productivity, logistics, institutions and financing costs. Trying to hold an artificial dollar level would distort price signals and threaten medium-term stability.
A weaker dollar worldwide is part of the story, but not the whole explanation. Bloomberg data ranked the guaraní as Latin America’s third-best performing currency of 2026 in July.
The currency was up 8.58% against the dollar at that point, behind only the Colombian peso and the Costa Rican colón.
Market economists surveyed by the BCP expect the dollar near 6,150 by December 2026, barely above current levels. That forecast suggests the market sees most of the guaraní appreciation as durable.
The guaraní has strengthened steadily since the second half of 2025, the bank’s note says. Officials argue that strength partly mirrors homegrown improvements, not only global moves.
Doctors strike for a 76% rise the state calls unpayable
Hundreds of public-sector doctors marched in Asunción on Tuesday, the second day of their national strike. The Sinamed union called the stoppage through Friday and is threatening to extend it indefinitely.
Protesters gathered at the Panteón Nacional de los Héroes and later tried to march on Congress. Police blocked the streets around the legislature, and the wreath-laying ended without incident.
The central demand is a 76% salary increase across the public health system. Doctors say their last real adjustment was approved back in 2012, fourteen years ago.
A public-sector doctor earns a minimum of 5 to 5.4 million guaraníes a month, official data show. That is about US$832 to US$900 at the current rate of roughly 6,000 guaraníes per dollar.
The strike has suspended consultations and scheduled surgeries at the main public hospitals. Hospitals of the social-security institute IPS, which serves most formal workers, are not affected.
The walkout lands days before Congress, controlled by the governing coalition, opens the 2027 budget debate. That timing gives the union leverage, and the government a fiscal headache.
Union leaders say the offer of one minimum-wage incentive, paid in stages, is not enough. The staged incentive would go to doctors who choose to specialize, subject to budget availability.
The government’s answer, and good news from beef
Economy Minister Óscar Lovera says the 76% demand is financially impossible to finance. He estimates meeting it would require about US$100 million from the general national budget.
Lovera acknowledges the state already owes US$1,270 million to outside service providers. About US$1,050 million of that total corresponds to health suppliers and medicines.
The government’s counter-offer is a health-service career ladder linking pay to training and performance. Health Minister María Teresa Barán says the plan was raised in four negotiating meetings with Sinamed.
On trade, twelve Paraguayan meat plants are now authorized to export beef to Chile. Senacsa chief José Carlos Martin announced the milestone, crediting private-sector commercial leadership.
Chile takes almost 20 beef cuts per carcass, using more than 120 kilos of each animal. Actual shipments from the newly cleared plants will depend on Chilean buyers’ commercial appetite.
Egypt’s auditors arrive in September, and a three-week European Union audit follows in November. Yet beef exporters face the same guaraní appreciation that is squeezing every other sector.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is the guaraní appreciation hurting Paraguay’s exporters?
The guaraní appreciation means every dollar an exporter earns converts into fewer guaraníes than before. Costs in local currency stay put while dollar income shrinks, so margins disappear, Capex says.
What are Paraguay’s striking doctors demanding?
The Sinamed union wants a 76% pay rise and says salaries were last adjusted in 2012. The government calls that unpayable and proposes a career ladder with staged incentives instead.
Can Paraguayan beef now be sold in Chile?
Yes, twelve meatpacking plants are now authorized, according to Senacsa. Shipments from the newly cleared plants will depend on the commercial appetite of Chilean buyers.
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