Oil Prices Rise as China’s Manufacturing Rebound Sparks Optimism Amid Global Uncertainty
Oil prices climbed on Monday morning, with Brent crude reaching $73 per barrel and WTI trading at $70.50. The market responded to positive Chinese manufacturing data released over the weekend, which showed the fastest expansion in three months.
This signaled a potential recovery in energy demand from the world’s largest crude importer, boosting investor sentiment despite broader economic and geopolitical concerns.
The optimism from China contrasted with lingering fears over U.S. tariffs set to take effect on March 4. President Trump announced new tariffs targeting imports from China, Mexico, and Canada, raising concerns about global demand.
Market participants also remained cautious due to heightened tensions between the U.S. and Ukraine, which could prolong sanctions and disrupt energy supplies.
Geopolitical uncertainty kept oil markets volatile. Hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal faded after clashes between the two nations’ leaders over the weekend.
Meanwhile, stalled negotiations on Kurdish oil exports from Iraq added further supply-side unpredictability. These factors have kept Brent crude and WTI prices under pressure, despite Monday’s slight recovery.
Crude Oil Market Faces Bearish Pressure
Technical indicators revealed mixed signals for traders. WTI faced resistance at $70.82 and $71.36, reflecting bearish momentum as its 100-day SMA remained below the 200-day SMA.
Brent crude also saw speculative positions reduced by over 44,000 lots last week, highlighting investor caution amid global uncertainties. ETF flows into crude oil funds stayed muted as hedge funds cut their net-long positions in WTI to their lowest levels since 2010.
Analysts pointed to a fragile economic outlook despite short-term optimism from China’s manufacturing data. ING analysts noted that unresolved sanctions and geopolitical risks would likely keep markets volatile in the coming weeks.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) projected global oil demand growth of 1.1 million barrels per day this year, driven by China and India. However, OECD countries are expected to experience declining demand, adding complexity to the market’s outlook.
As markets brace for U.S. API and EIA inventory reports later this week, traders will closely monitor any developments in U.S.-China trade relations and Russia-Ukraine tensions for further price direction.
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Commodities — Live Market Board
-0.03%
| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| COPPER | 6.61 | +0.03% | +46.70% | 6.61 | 6.71 | 6.61 | 39,543 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
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