Gold Prices Edge Higher Amid Geopolitical Risks and ETF Inflows

Gold prices rose on Monday morning, with spot gold trading at $2,866.76 per ounce, reflecting a 0.3% increase. U.S. gold futures climbed 1.1% to $2,880.50 per ounce, while India’s MCX gold futures for April contracts gained 0.5%, reaching ₹84,638 (approximately $14,106).

The market’s upward movement followed a weekend marked by geopolitical tensions and a weaker U.S. dollar. The dollar index fell 0.4% from its two-week high, making gold more affordable for international buyers and boosting demand.

Delayed peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, combined with uncertainties around U.S.-China tariff policies set to escalate on March 4, also heightened safe-haven buying. Despite these drivers, some profit-taking from last week’s record highs limited further price surges.

Global markets reflected these dynamics. London’s over-the-counter trading activity remained steady as it set benchmark prices for the day. New York’s COMEX saw robust futures trading, while the Shanghai Gold Exchange indicated strong physical demand in Asia.

In India, spot gold prices held steady at ₹86,210 ($14,368) per 10 grams for 24K gold and ₹79,540 ($13,257) for 22K gold, supported by a weaker rupee. Gold-backed ETFs recorded significant inflows last week, with holdings in SPDR Gold Trust rising to 904.38 metric tons.

Gold ETFs See Largest Inflows

Investors added 52.4 tons worth $4.9 billion to physically-backed ETFs globally—the largest inflow since March 2022—reflecting growing institutional interest in gold as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks.

Technical analysis showed bullish momentum but identified resistance near $2,884–$2,900 per ounce and support levels at $2,842–$2,820 per ounce. Analysts suggested a “buy-on-dip” strategy as long as prices remain above $2,650 per ounce.

Market makers noted strong trading volumes across COMEX and MCX due to heightened volatility. Kelvin Wong of OANDA attributed the gains to “geopolitical risks and tariff uncertainties driving safe-haven demand.” Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvi Finmart advised caution until markets stabilize.

With geopolitical tensions persisting and the dollar weakening further, analysts expect gold to test the $3,000 mark in the coming weeks if current conditions hold steady.

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