Oil Markets Stage Technical Comeback on March 13, 2025 After Recent Slump
WTI crude has climbed to $67.60 per barrel this morning, marking a significant 1.9% increase from Tuesday’s price of $66.35. This upward movement extends the rally to two consecutive sessions.
Brent crude similarly advanced to $71.58, representing a gain of 1.7%. Markets responded positively overnight to lower-than-expected U.S. inventory data and renewed optimism about Chinese demand.
Previous Day & Overnight Developments
North American Markets
Yesterday’s session saw WTI crude surge after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a surprise drawdown of 2.3 million barrels in crude inventories, contradicting analysts’ expectations of a 1.5 million barrel build. Gasoline inventories also fell by 1.8 million barrels, suggesting stronger consumer demand.
“The inventory draw caught many traders by surprise, indicating demand resilience despite higher interest rates,” said Robert Miller, chief commodities strategist at Citigroup. “We’re seeing technical buying accelerate as prices cleared the $67 resistance level.”
Trading volumes reached 1.15 million contracts for WTI futures on the NYMEX, approximately 24% above the 20-day average, signaling increased bullish sentiment.
Asian Markets
Overnight trading in Asia amplified the positive momentum after China’s industrial output data showed a 4.5% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations of 3.8%. The encouraging economic indicators from the world’s largest oil importer triggered buying in both Shanghai and Singapore trading hours.
“Chinese demand appears to be recovering faster than anticipated,” noted Zhang Wei, energy analyst at Bank of China. “Refinery utilization rates increased by 2.2 percentage points last week, suggesting stronger near-term consumption.”
European Markets
European trading opened with continued upward pressure as ICE Brent futures broke above the psychological $70 barrier. Lower inflation readings in Germany and France improved the economic outlook for the eurozone, boosting expected oil demand projections.
Supply Dynamics
OPEC+ production fell by 240,000 barrels per day in February according to vessel tracking data released yesterday, with compliance to cuts reaching 92%, up from 87% in January. Saudi Arabia has maintained its voluntary additional cuts, while Kuwait and UAE also showed strong discipline.
“The cohesion within OPEC+ appears stronger than market participants expected,” said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects this morning. “There’s growing confidence that production restrictions will be maintained through the third quarter, providing a solid floor for prices.”
U.S. production faced temporary disruptions due to severe weather in the Bakken region, with an estimated 180,000 barrels per day offline. Baker Hughes reported a decrease of three oil rigs last week, bringing the total U.S. oil rig count to 499.
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| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | 4,461 | +1.78% | +33.20% | 4,383 | 4,503 | 4,421 | 139,824 |
| SILVER | 65.59 | +1.26% | +73.05% | 64.77 | 66.98 | 64.81 | 46,406 |
| BRENT | 88.88 | -0.03% | +34.42% | 88.91 | 90.07 | 88.12 | 29,713 |
| WTI | 83.11 | -0.11% | +31.57% | 83.20 | 84.35 | 82.40 | 166,848 |
| COPPER | 6.61 | +0.03% | +46.70% | 6.61 | 6.71 | 6.61 | 39,543 |
| LITHIUM | 75.20 | +1.47% | +62.95% | 74.11 | 75.80 | 75.08 | 89,275 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +58.10% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| SOY | 1,184 | +3.20% | +17.05% | 1,148 | 1,199 | 1,168 | 163,179 |
| CORN | 480.50 | +10.02% | +29.34% | 436.75 | 480.75 | 459.50 | 341,248 |
| WHEAT | 655.00 | +3.93% | +29.70% | 630.25 | 657.75 | 631.50 | 128,793 |
| COFFEE | 317.25 | -5.51% | +0.67% | 335.75 | 321.20 | 313.55 | 21,747 |
| SUGAR | 16.43 | -1.79% | -3.01% | 16.73 | 17.11 | 16.22 | 171,992 |
| COCOA | 5,719 | +3.18% | -34.96% | 5,543 | 5,779 | 5,574 | 26,773 |
| ORANGE JUICE | 138.55 | -0.47% | -45.38% | 139.20 | 141.05 | 137.50 | 703 |
| COTTON | 85.03 | +2.33% | +26.78% | 83.09 | 82.90 | 81.96 | 16,546 |
| BEEF | 223.60 | -3.93% | -5.18% | 232.75 | 226.40 | 223.00 | 16,126 |
| CATTLE | 339.10 | -3.16% | -1.82% | 350.17 | 345.50 | 338.60 | 10,164 |
| USD/BRL | 5.16 | +0.01% | -5.13% | 5.16 | 5.18 | 5.14 | — |
Investment Flows
ETF movements reflected the bullish sentiment, with the United States Oil Fund (USO) seeing inflows of $89 million yesterday. Institutional positioning in CME futures shows managed money increasing long positions by 12,300 contracts while reducing short positions by 8,700 contracts.
“We’re seeing a notable shift in positioning from institutional investors,” observed Sarah Johnson, energy fund manager at Blackrock. “The technical breakout above the 50-day moving average has triggered systematic buying programs.”
Technical Analysis
WTI crude has successfully broken above its 50-day moving average at $66.80, triggering technical buying. The relative strength index (RSI) reads 58, indicating gathering momentum without reaching overbought levels.
“The price action has been decisively bullish,” explained Carlos Rodriguez, technical analyst at Trading Economics. “The breakthrough above $67 completes an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern that projects potential upside to the $70-71 range in the coming weeks.”
Volume-weighted average price (VWAP) analysis shows consistent buying pressure throughout yesterday’s session, particularly during minor price dips.
Market Outlook
JP Morgan revised its Q2 2025 Brent forecast upward this morning from $72 to $76 per barrel, citing “improving Chinese consumption metrics and tighter-than-expected OPEC+ compliance.”
“We expect OPEC+ to maintain production discipline through at least mid-year,” said Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman in comments to Reuters today. “The fundamentals remain supportive of current price levels as global inventories continue normalizing.”
Traders will closely monitor tomorrow’s U.S. retail sales data and next week’s Federal Reserve meeting for further clues about economic conditions and potential impacts on oil demand.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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