Key Points
— Mexico’s Finance Ministry (Hacienda) projects GDP growth of 1.9-2.9% in 2027 and 1.8-2.8% in 2026, recovering from just 0.6% in 2025 — when Trump tariffs and regulatory uncertainty weighed on the economy
— Private investment is expected to be the primary growth driver as businesses adapt to the new regulatory environment and the USMCA (T-MEC) trade agreement enters its review process
— Hacienda forecasts the peso at 18.4 per dollar in 2026 and 18.6 in 2027, with the Mexican oil basket averaging $77.30 per barrel in 2026 but dropping sharply to $54.70 in 2027
After the slowest year in a decade, Mexico’s government is betting on an investment-led rebound — but the numbers depend heavily on how the USMCA review unfolds and whether Trump’s tariff regime stabilizes.
Mexico’s Finance Ministry delivered its “Pre-Criterios 2027” — the preliminary macroeconomic assumptions for next year’s federal budget — to Congress on Wednesday, projecting a Mexico GDP forecast of 1.9-2.9% growth for 2027. For the current year, Hacienda estimates 1.8-2.8%, a significant acceleration from the 0.6% recorded in 2025, when U.S. tariffs and domestic regulatory shifts hit the economy hard.
Investment as the Growth Engine
Hacienda identified private investment as the principal driver of the expected recovery. The ministry said it anticipates a “gradual rebound” as companies adapt to the new regulatory environment and as the review process for the USMCA (known in Mexico as T-MEC) advances. The trilateral trade agreement — the backbone of Mexico’s $600 billion annual trade relationship with the United States — is scheduled for its first formal review, a process that will shape investor confidence throughout 2026 and 2027.
Private consumption will provide support through sustained real wage growth, employment gains linked to new investment, and the base provided by the government’s social transfer programs. Mexico also expects a favorable export performance, with Hacienda noting that the country maintains a more competitive effective tariff rate than most of its trading rivals — a reference to the uneven application of Trump-era tariffs that have hit Asian competitors harder than USMCA partners.
The World Cup Factor
Hacienda explicitly cited the 2026 FIFA World Cup — co-hosted by Mexico, the United States, and Canada — as an additional growth impulse for the current year. Mexico will host matches in Mexico City (Estadio Azteca), Guadalajara, and Monterrey, with the hotel and hospitality sector already scaling investment ahead of the June-July tournament.
Exchange Rate and Oil Assumptions
The pre-budget assumptions project the peso at 18.4 per dollar at end-2026 and 18.6 at end-2027 — a modest depreciation path that implies relative exchange rate stability. More notable is the oil price assumption: the Mexican crude basket is forecast to average $77.30 per barrel in 2026 but drop to $54.70 in 2027. The 29% decline in the oil price assumption reflects the government’s expectation that the Iran-Hormuz disruption will ease and global supply will normalize — a bet that directly affects Pemex revenues and the federal budget.
Hacienda reaffirmed its commitment to fiscal consolidation, stating that both 2026 and 2027 will continue the “gradual normalization” of the deficit. The Pre-Criterios are a preliminary framework — the full budget proposal will require congressional approval later this year.
The wide bands on both forecasts — a full percentage point between the low and high estimates — reflect genuine uncertainty. The USMCA review, Trump’s tariff trajectory, Iran-related oil volatility, and the pace of nearshoring investment all remain open variables. Mexico grew just 0.6% in 2025 — the weakest performance since the pandemic. Whether the 2026-2027 recovery materializes depends on factors largely outside Mexico City’s control.