Key Points
— Uruguay’s goods exports reached $3.16 billion in Q1 2026, up 9% year-on-year, led by beef ($682 million, +22%), cellulose ($524 million, −1%), beverage concentrates ($207 million), and dairy ($197 million)
— The EU, Brazil, and China were the top three export destinations — with beef prices 19% higher than a year ago compensating for lower volumes shipped
— Despite the strong start, Uruguay XXI projects full-year 2026 exports at $13.16 billion — a 3% decline from 2025’s record $13.49 billion — citing a more uncertain global trade environment
Uruguay’s export machine opened 2026 strong — but the country’s own trade promotion agency is warning the second half could tell a different story.
Uruguay exports of goods totaled $3.16 billion in the first quarter of 2026, a 9% increase over the same period last year, according to data published Wednesday by Uruguay XXI, the government’s trade and investment promotion agency. Beef led the way with $682 million in revenue and a 22% year-on-year jump, reclaiming its position as the country’s top export earner after being briefly overtaken by cellulose in mid-2025.
Beef Prices Do the Heavy Lifting
The story behind beef’s surge is prices, not volume. International beef prices rose approximately 19% year-on-year, compensating for slightly lower tonnage shipped. Uruguay shipped to its traditional markets — China absorbed the largest share of beef exports, followed by the EU and the United States — with the EU-Mercosur trade deal’s provisional application starting May 1 set to further improve access under a 99,000-tonne quota at a preferential 7.5% tariff.
In 2025, beef exports hit a record $2.68 billion — a 33% increase that propelled total goods exports to $13.49 billion, the highest level in a decade. Beef accounted for roughly 22% of all Uruguay exports in Q1 2026, making the sector’s performance effectively a proxy for the country’s trade balance.
Cellulose, Dairy, and the Rest
Cellulose — Uruguay‘s second-largest export, driven by UPM’s Paso de los Toros plant and Montes del Plata — generated $524 million in Q1, a slight 1% decline. The EU was the top cellulose destination (roughly 50% of shipments), followed by China. Beverage concentrates ranked third at $207 million, and dairy products fourth at $197 million.
Colza and carinata — oilseed crops gaining traction in Uruguay — showed exceptional growth earlier in the year, jumping from $2 million to $37 million in January alone. The UK emerged as a fast-growing market, with exports up 91% in the January-February period driven by cellulose and specialty agricultural products.
The Full-Year Warning
Despite the strong Q1, Uruguay XXI’s full-year 2026 projection is cautious: approximately $13.16 billion, a nearly 3% decline from 2025’s record. The agency cited a more uncertain and less dynamic international environment — code for Trump’s tariff escalation, the Iran-Hormuz disruption affecting shipping costs, and potential softening in Chinese commodity demand.
For Uruguay — a country of 3.4 million people that exports nearly $4,000 per capita annually — the trade outlook is existential in a way it is not for larger neighbors. China alone accounted for 26% of total exports in 2025, purchasing $3.49 billion in Uruguayan goods. Any meaningful deceleration in Chinese demand for beef, cellulose, or soy would directly impact GDP, fiscal revenues, and the currency.
The EU-Mercosur trade deal offers a partial hedge — guaranteed European access for beef and cellulose at reduced tariffs — but Uruguay’s export concentration in a handful of commodities leaves it structurally exposed to price and demand shocks that no trade agreement can fully mitigate. The Q1 numbers are strong. The question is whether they represent a trend or a peak before the global headwinds arrive.