Argentina’s Merval Eases 1.08% After Best Week in Latin America as YPF Hits 15-Year High
Argentina Merval stock market report: the index eased 1.08% to 2,846,220.22 Friday after Thursday’s +3.19% breakout, netting +5.1% on the week and leading LATAM by a wide margin. YPF ADR rose 8.2% to $47.99, a 15-year high. Country risk fell 24bp to 514 bps — closest to 500 since the 2018 Macri-IMF cycle. BCRA reserves $46.803B. RSI and MACD remain bullish.
The Big Three
Merval closed Friday at 2,846,220.22 (−1.08%, −31,218 pts), giving back roughly one third of Thursday’s +3.19% breakout. The candle is digestion, not breakdown: opened 2,866,690, range 2,842,297–2,870,946, close above the Kijun cluster. Weekly print +5.1% in pesos is the strongest in LATAM by 4+ points. Breadth Friday was thin negative — 5 of 14 names higher, Financials led, Utilities lagged.
YPF ADR rose 8.2% on the week to $47.99 — a 15-year nominal high, last seen in March 2011 — on the Vaca Muerta shale-oil ramp and the regional LatAm re-pricing. Banks ran with it: Banco Macro +7.9%, Galicia +6.9%, Banco Francés +6.8%. Bank YTD prints still −15% to −32% from a difficult Q1; reversal, not extension.
The macro is doing the work. JP Morgan EMBI+ country risk fell 24bp on the week to 514 bps, approaching the symbolic 500 line for the first time since the 2018 Macri-IMF cycle. BCRA reserves $46.803B (+$52M Friday) sit $102M below the Milei-era February record and the highest since 2018. Sovereign Bonares/Globales averaged +1.2% on the week.
02 Weekly Session Data
| Metric | Value | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merval close (Fri) | 2,846,220 | −1.08% | Digestion of Thu’s +3.19% breakout |
| Weekly print (peso) | +5.1% | LATAM #1 | Vs Brazil −, Colombia −, Mexico flat |
| YPF ADR (week) | $47.99 | +8.2% | Highest since March 2011 |
| USD mayorista (Fri) | ARS $1,403 | +1.0% | Highest of May; BCRA bought $139M |
| BCRA reserves | $46.803B | +$52M Fri | $102M below Feb record |
| RSI (fast/slow) | 51.95 / 45.97 | Fast > slow | Only LATAM bench above midline |
| MACD (hist/line/sig) | +7,403 / −12,577 / −19,980 | Bullish cross | Line above signal, histogram green |
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03 Why It Led
Local Driver: Milei agricultural tax cuts, IMF approval, reserve accumulation
Three Argentina-specific catalysts compounded. Milei announced export-tax (retenciones) cuts on wheat and barley with a 2027 soy commitment, lifting the agro-export thesis. The IMF Second Review was approved Thursday, removing a known overhang. BCRA bought $139M Friday for $1.835B cumulative May purchases; reserves $46.803B, $102M shy of the Milei-era February high. The peso mayorista weakened 1% on heavy volume — BCRA accumulation, not capital flight, confirmed by the parallel bond and equity rally.
External Trigger: Warsh era opens, Argentina decouples up
Kevin Warsh was sworn in as Fed chair Friday; traders now price the Fed to hold through 2026 with hike risk for 2027. Wall Street closed at records into Memorial Day, but LATAM split: Brazil fell 0.81% and Colombia 0.85% on the Iran uranium snag, Mexico held on the EU pact, Argentina lapped the field on the weekly print. The Vaca Muerta ramp keeps YPF’s thesis intact through the Brent oscillation.
Key Facts
— The cleanest read this week is the equity–bond convergence. Equities printed +5.1% in pesos, sovereigns averaged +1.2%, country risk compressed 24bp toward 500. That is the constellation Argentina has been hunting since the May 11 capitulation reversal at 2,749,913 — domestic flow finally translating into international price action via the bond market, not just BYMA. The alto beta is working in Argentina’s favour, not against.
— Friday’s 1.08% pullback is profit-taking, not a regime break. Thursday’s +3.19% breakout was the second-largest May session; a one-day giveback of one third is healthy. MACD bullish cross holds and RSI above the midline is the only such posture in LATAM this Friday. Argentina enters the week as the relative winner of the Warsh-era opening.
05 Technical Snapshot
Merval 2,846,220 sits above the Kijun cluster near 2,787,742 and well above the 200-DMA in the 2,790,000 zone — structurally uptrended. BB upper 2,907,787 is the next overhead gate; a close through reopens 3M. MACD histogram +7,403 with line −12,577 above signal −19,980 keeps the bullish cross intact, and RSI fast 51.95 above slow 45.97 is the cleanest momentum posture in LATAM. The 2,832,806 BB-mid cluster is the first support; Kijun 2,787,742 is the structural line that separates digestion from a failed breakout.
06 Forward Look
07 Questions & Answers
Key Facts
— Argentina is the LATAM relative winner of the Warsh-era opening week. Friday’s giveback masks a structural shift: country risk 514 bps near 500, YPF at a 15-year high, reserves $102M shy of a Milei-era record, IMF Review behind, retenciones cut. The MACD bullish cross and RSI above midline are the only such posture in LATAM. The Kijun at 2,787,742 separates digestion from a failed breakout.
— Related: Fri May 22 breakout report · Weekly recap · May 18 reversal.
— Five hundred is the number. Sub-500 country risk reopens the private-market door.
Disclaimer: This report is editorial market analysis based on publicly available data. It is not investment advice. Markets carry risk; consult a licensed professional before trading.
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