LatAm Pre-Open — Wednesday, September 30, 2026
Key Facts
- Brazil’s fiscal data lead the day: the central bank publishes August debt and budget figures at 08:30 BRT, and IBGE producer prices follow at 09:00 BRT, both before B3 opens.
- Tuesday’s Brazilian data ran hot but did not hurt: 165,827 formal jobs in August, far above forecasts, and a 1.57% IGP-M rise in September. The real still gained 0.45% to 5.2019 per US dollar.
- Colombia’s central bank decides at 15:00 BRT, with economists expecting the policy rate to stay at 12%. The peso strengthened about 1% on Tuesday to 3,330 per US dollar at the local close.
- US futures edge higher: S&P 500 futures were up about 0.2% early on Wednesday and Nasdaq futures were flat, ahead of US ADP payrolls and August PCE inflation.
- Gold paused at about US$4,173 an ounce in early trade after Tuesday’s 1.4% rebound. Brent settled 2.6% lower at US$102.59 a barrel on Tuesday.
Today’s Focus
The overnight mood is steady rather than fearful. S&P 500 futures were slightly higher early on Wednesday, Tokyo’s Nikkei gained about 2% and gold paused after Tuesday’s rebound. The dollar index ended Tuesday 0.17% higher at 101.37.
Brazil is the main event today. The central bank’s August fiscal figures and IBGE’s producer price index will shape how foreign investors treat the real and the Selic, the central bank’s benchmark rate, now 13.75%.
Colombia’s central bank is widely expected to hold its key rate at 12% this afternoon. The peso gave the bank some room on Tuesday, strengthening about 1% to 3,330 per US dollar, the best move in the region.
Chile reports August unemployment, retail sales and industrial output at 09:00 BRT. In the US, ADP payrolls and August PCE inflation arrive at 09:15 and 09:30 BRT, after New York Fed president John Williams said on Tuesday that one further rate rise may be appropriate late this year.
What matters today. Whether Brazil’s fiscal numbers show discipline — a miss would hit the real and local rates immediately — and whether US PCE inflation revives Fed hike talk.
| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 183,828 | +0.46% |
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,671 | -0.17% |
| USD/BRL | 5.2019 | -0.45% |
| USD/MXN | 18.0465 | +0.30% |
| USD/CLP | 972.98 | +0.48% |
| USD/COP | 3,330 | -0.95% |
| USD/ARS | 1,525 | -0.01% |
Source: RT live market data, close of Tuesday 29 September 2026; USD/COP is the Colombian local spot close.
01 The overnight tape in one read
Overnight trading was calm. Gold stood at about US$4,173 an ounce early on Wednesday, down 0.3%, after rebounding 1.4% on Tuesday from Monday’s 3.1% slide. Silver rose 1.2% on Tuesday to US$61.52.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, firmed 0.17% on Tuesday to 101.37. The US 10-year Treasury yield ended at 5.249% and eased to about 5.24% early on Wednesday.
S&P 500 futures were about 0.2% higher and Nasdaq futures flat early on Wednesday. In Asia, the Nikkei was up about 2% and Shanghai stocks gained about 0.4% and Hong Kong edged up 0.2%. China’s official factory PMI came in at 50.1, in line with forecasts.
Brent crude settled 2.6% lower at US$102.59 a barrel on Tuesday after reports that Saudi Arabia had boosted flows through its East-West pipeline. Cheaper oil matters for exporters such as Colombia and Mexico, and for Petrobras.
The overnight tape gives Latin American markets no strong direction: US futures are only slightly higher, the dollar is firm and gold has paused. That leaves room for local catalysts to dominate. The variable to watch is Brazil’s fiscal release at 08:30 BRT — a wider-than-expected deficit would test the real’s recent calm. US PCE inflation is the second test, after New York Fed president John Williams said on Tuesday that one further rate rise may be appropriate late this year and St Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem called policy still somewhat accommodative.
02 The board before the open
| Instrument | Level | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | US$4,185/oz | +1.39% | Rebound after Monday’s 3.1% drop |
| Dollar index | 101.37 | +0.17% | Greenback firms |
| US 10Y yield | 5.249% | +0.5 bp | Rates stay high |
| VIX | 16.04 | -0.19% | Calm, not panicked |
| Silver | US$61.52/oz | +1.18% | Precious metals bid |
The table shows Tuesday’s closes. Gold and silver recovered part of Monday’s heavy losses, while the dollar and US yields stayed firm.
The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, was a touch lower at 16.04, which shows this is not a panic. Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Live Market IntelligenceLatin America — Cross-Market Board
Latin America — Cross-Market Board
Instrument Last Change YoY Prev. High Low Volume
IBOV
183,827.59
+0.46%
+21.85%
182,991.13
168,310
167,142
—
IPSA
11,055.91
-0.73%
—
11,137.23
11,210
10,984
1,513,213,483
IPC MEX
65,071.30
+0.20%
+12.17%
64,944.41
66,121
65,405
108,886,187
MERVAL
2,782,561
-0.59%
+30.51%
3,022,485
3,042,365
2,991,150
—
COLCAP
2,558.92
-0.79%
—
9.04
9.05
9.02
4,133
BVL PERÚ
60,220.45
+0.32%
—
—
—
—
—
USD/BRL
5.16
+0.01%
-5.13%
5.16
5.18
5.14
—
EUR/BRL
5.95
+1.01%
-5.83%
5.89
5.98
5.94
—
USD/MXN
17.06
-0.24%
-8.58%
17.10
17.08
17.01
—
USD/CLP
913.98
+0.04%
-5.67%
913.65
915.11
906.68
—
USD/COP
3,140
+0.03%
-22.04%
3,139
3,141
3,105
—
USD/PEN
3.36
-0.66%
-4.82%
3.38
3.38
3.35
—
USD/ARS
1,493
+0.10%
+12.96%
1,491
1,494
1,480
—
USD/UYU
40.27
+1.24%
+1.80%
39.77
40.27
40.23
—
USD/PYG
5,939
+1.68%
-19.54%
5,841
5,939
5,925
—
USD/BOB
11.64
-0.76%
+72.04%
11.73
11.72
11.64
—
USD/DOP
58.34
+1.25%
-3.44%
57.62
58.34
58.04
—
USD/CRC
445.92
+0.89%
-9.71%
441.97
448.50
445.92
—
03 What the data shows — B3 movers highlight a selective tape
| Stock | Move | Turnover | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZZA3 | +10.5% | R$111m (US$21m) | Top gainer; no company news |
| SIMH3 | +4.8% | R$41m (US$8m) | Strong move, light volume |
| CSNA3 | -9.8% | R$235m (US$45m) | Mining arm cut 2026 output guidance |
| VALE3 | -2.2% | R$2,025m (US$389m) | Turnover leader; iron ore, target cut |
| PETR4 | +0.8% | R$1,184m (US$228m) | LNG deal with Cheniere |
The B3 scan shows a market where leadership is narrow. Azzas (AZZA3), a fashion and footwear group, surged 10.5% on just R$111 million (US$21 million) in turnover and no company news — the kind of move that can fade quickly. CSN fell 9.8% after its mining arm cut its 2026 iron-ore output guidance.
The real weight is in the turnover leaders. Vale, the iron ore giant, fell 2.2% with over R$2 billion (US$389 million) changing hands, while Petrobras preferred shares rose 0.8% on R$1.2 billion (US$228 million). Their direction will matter more for the index than the small-cap fireworks.
04 Brazil and the currencies
The real is holding near 5.20 per US dollar after gaining 0.45% on Tuesday to 5.2019. It rose even as the dollar firmed against Mexico’s and Chile’s pesos.
Brazil’s Selic is the key rate for local fixed income. At 13.75%, it has been cut at five straight meetings, and today’s producer price and fiscal data could shape how much more room there is.
The Colombian peso was the region’s best performer on Tuesday, strengthening 0.95% to 3,330 per US dollar at the local close. That eases pressure on the central bank, which is expected to hold rates at 12% today.
Mexico’s peso (18.0465 per US dollar) and Chile’s peso (972.98 per US dollar) softened 0.30% and 0.48%. Argentina’s peso is stable near 1,525 per US dollar, though that market remains heavily managed.
05 The regional setup
| Index | Country | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa | Brazil | +0.46% |
| IPC | Mexico | +0.26% |
| IPSA | Chile | -0.73% |
| Merval | Argentina | -0.58% |
| COLCAP | Colombia | -0.79% |
Brazil’s Ibovespa managed a small gain in the prior session while most regional peers slipped. That divergence suggests some domestic support for Brazilian assets despite the cautious global mood.
Chile, Argentina and Colombia all closed lower, with Colombia’s COLCAP the weakest at 2,559 points. Chile’s IPSA fell for a fourth session, and Colombia’s Ecopetrol dropped with cheaper oil.
06 The technical picture
The Ibovespa sits roughly 7.5% below its 52-week closing high, while the Mexican IPC is about 9% off its February peak. Neither market has broken down decisively, but both are stuck in consolidation ranges.
The S&P 500 is just 1.6% from its high, while Latin American indices are much further behind. That gap shows how much harder the region has been hit by rate and currency concerns.
The dollar is the clue for the session. If it stays firm after US PCE data, Mexico’s IPC and Brazil’s Ibovespa may struggle to extend Tuesday’s gains.
07 Tuesday’s data, one by one
Tuesday’s pre-open flagged Brazil’s IGP-M, unemployment and Treasury result, US consumer confidence and Colombia’s rate meeting. Here is how each landed.
Brazil — IGP-M (FGV), 08:00 BRT. The index rose 1.57% in September, just under the 1.60% forecast, after a 0.22% fall in August. Over 12 months it is up 3.34%.
Brazil — unemployment (IBGE), 09:00 BRT. The rate was 5.3% in the three months to August, in line with forecasts and unchanged.
Brazil — Caged payrolls, afternoon. Brazil created 165,827 formal jobs in August, far above forecasts of roughly 86,000 to 96,000.
Brazil — Treasury result, afternoon. The central government ran a primary deficit of R$13.6 billion (US$2.6 billion) in August, smaller than the R$14.2 billion (US$2.7 billion) forecast we flagged. The real still gained 0.45% and the Ibovespa rose 0.46%.
US — consumer confidence, 11:00 BRT. The Conference Board index fell to 81.9 in September from 88.6, far below the 89.2 forecast. JOLTS job openings slipped to 7.08 million from 7.34 million. Treasury yields barely moved, with the 10-year at 5.249%.
Argentina — current account, 16:00 BRT. The second quarter showed a surplus of US$2.2 billion, against an expected deficit of about US$200 million. The Merval still fell 0.58%.
Colombia and Mexico. Colombia’s rate decision is today, not Tuesday. Neither country had major releases on Tuesday; Mexico’s IPC rose 0.26% and Colombia’s COLCAP fell 0.79%.
08 What to watch
- Brazil fiscal data, 08:30 BRT: Gross debt is forecast at 83.1% of GDP; the nominal deficit is expected near R$109 billion (US$21 billion). Producer prices follow at 09:00 BRT
- Chile, 09:00 BRT: August unemployment (9.5% expected), retail sales, industrial output and copper production
- US, 09:15 and 09:30 BRT: ADP payrolls (70,000 expected) and August PCE inflation (3.7% expected); Chicago PMI at 10:45 BRT
- Colombia, 12:00 and 15:00 BRT: August unemployment, then the central bank’s rate decision, with a hold at 12% expected
- Fed speakers: Barkin, Goolsbee and Kashkari speak today, after Williams said on Tuesday that one further rate rise may be appropriate late this year
Background: Latin American Markets Open Quietly Before Mexico Rate Decision.
Frequently Asked Questions
What moved gold this week?
Gold fell 3.1% on Monday, rebounded 1.4% on Tuesday to about US$4,185 an ounce, and was slightly lower early on Wednesday. It is seen as a safe haven, so it reacts to shifts in risk appetite and US yields.
What is the Selic?
It is Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, set by the central bank, and stands at 13.75%. It influences everything from local borrowing costs to foreign investment flows.
Why does Brazil’s fiscal data matter today?
If the government’s budget deficit is wider than expected, investors may demand higher yields on Brazilian debt, which would weaken the real.
What is the COLCAP?
It is Colombia’s main stock index. It fell nearly 0.8% in the latest session, making it the region’s weakest major market.
Source: RT live market data, close of Tuesday 29 September 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error
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