Key Economic Events This Week: March Payroll and PMI Updates Take Center Stage
This week, from April 1st to 5th, the economic calendar is led by the U.S. labor market report, also known as the payroll report.
Meanwhile, in Brazil, the spotlight is on industrial performance, among other key indicators.
The focus is on domestic and international economic activity data, with Brazil’s Central Bank set to release monetary, credit, external sector, and fiscal statistics.
The Highlight: Payroll
Investors are keenly awaiting the Federal Reserve’s move on interest rate cuts in the United States, with the payroll report playing a crucial role in monetary policy decisions.
Before the most anticipated report, the JOLTs report on Tuesday and the ADP survey on Thursday will set the stage, measuring job openings and private sector employment, respectively.
The payroll report on Friday brings the official unemployment rate and wage growth into focus.
February’s data were notably significant, and the Bradesco report indicated that without a reversal of this trend, the prospect of a Fed rate cut might be delayed.
Growth Outlook
Following up, the economic calendar features a new round of PMI surveys.
This monthly research by S&P Global serves as a gauge of economic activity, reflecting the business pace across various sectors.
Data from Brazil, the U.S., the Eurozone, and China will be released from Monday to Thursday.
Particularly in Brazil, the key indicator to watch is Wednesday’s industrial production report for February, when GDP growth expectations for 2024 are being revised upwards.
The Focus Bulletin, to be updated on Tuesday, shows a continuous improvement in economic growth forecasts for six weeks.
The Central Bank has recently increased its GDP growth projection from 1.7% to 1.9% for the year, with industrial growth expectations adjusted from 1.7% to 2.2%.
Economic Calendar Highlights – April 1 to 5
Monday (1)
10:00 AM: March Manufacturing PMI (S&P Global)
– 10:15 AM: March Economic Uncertainty Indicator (Ibre-FGV)
– 10:45 AM: March Manufacturing PMI in the United States (S&P Global)
Tuesday (2)
8:25 AM: Focus Bulletin (Central Bank)
– 8:30 AM: February Monetary and Credit Statistics (Central Bank)
– 11:00 AM: February JOLTs Job Openings Report in the United States
– 10:45 PM: March Composite PMI (Caixin) in China
Wednesday (3)
9:00 AM: February Industrial Production (IBGE)
– 9:15 AM: March ADP Employment Report in the United States
– 10:00 AM: March Composite PMI (S&P Global)
– 10:45 AM: March Composite PMI in the United States (S&P Global)
Thursday (4)
5:00 AM: March Composite PMI in the Eurozone (S&P Global)
– 8:00 AM: March IVAR/Residential Rent Change Index (Ibre-FGV)
– 8:30 AM: February External Sector Statistics (Central Bank)
Friday (5)
8:00 AM: March IGP-DI and its components: IPA-DI, IPC-DI, and INCC-DI (Ibre-FGV)
– 8:30 AM: February Fiscal Statistics (Central Bank)
– 9:30 AM: March Payroll/Unemployment Rate in the United States
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